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CLT

Charlotte 17 at Florida Atlantic 21

FAU
2020 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2020 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 12 yds to the FlAtl 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+20.5+10.30−10.3−20.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:16: Nick Tronti run for 49 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +16.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 2:57: Nick Tronti pass complete to Logan Peterson for 25 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +23.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:57: Nick Tronti pass complete to T.J. Chase for 16 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +17.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:00: Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +19.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:26: Timeout CHARLOTTE, clock 00:26 — FAU win probability +11.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:57CLT 4th & 1 at FAU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:13CLT 4th & 19 at FAU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:13FAU 4th & 3 at CLT 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:50CLT 4th & 7 at FAU 31, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:12FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:09CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:58FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:27CLT 4th & 1 at CLT 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:51CLT 4th & 10 at FAU 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:07CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:20CLT 4th & 4 at FAU 6, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−6.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:00FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 33, up 4
    Close callPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:07CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−3.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00FAU 4th & 1 at CLT 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−4.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−17.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:26CLT 4th & 15 at FAU 21, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:36CLT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:16FAU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:57FAU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:57FAU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:00CLT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.8%
BJ Emmons run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
59.8%
Nick Tronti pass complete to BJ Emmons for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
59.8%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
59.8%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Michael Irvin II, broken up by Antone WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
59.8%
Larry McCammon III run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
59.8%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to T.J. ChaseSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
59.8%
Matthew Hayball punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Victor Tucker at the Charl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 6:4440% → 41%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
59.8%
Chris Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Charl 23Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+15
59.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 15 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
59.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 14 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
59.6%
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+9
59.6%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass incomplete to TUCKER, Victor, PENALTY FAU pass interference (YOUNG, Teja) 9 yards to the FAU38, 1ST DOWN CLT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
59.6%
Aaron McAllister run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
59.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Carriere for 3 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
59.5%
Tre Harbison III run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+2
59.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 2 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+1
59.7%
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
59.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor TuckerSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
59.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Tre Harbison III, broken up by Ahman RossSimilar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-9
59.6%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Leighton McCarthy for a loss of 9 yards to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+43
59.3%
Jonathan Cruz 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.8%
BJ Emmons run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
58.9%
BJ Emmons run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
59.0%
Nick Tronti run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.1%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete, broken up by Ja'Cione FugateSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
58.9%
Nick Tronti run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
59.5%
BJ Emmons run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
59.7%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to BJ Alexander, broken up by Lance McMillanSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
59.2%
Nick Tronti pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
59.7%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 3
OPP 47
-2
59.2%
LaJohntay Wester run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:5343% → 48%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
56.9%
Chris Reynolds run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
52.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 39 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:3652% → 50%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.2%
Nick Tronti run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
52.7%
Nick Tronti pass complete to T.J. Chase for 9 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
52.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Larry McCammon IIISimilar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
51.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
51.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q1 0:36
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+4
50.7%
Nick Tronti run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
50.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 40 yds , Nafees Lyon returns for no gain to the Charl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 6:5848% → 55%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
51.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 6 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
51.0%
Tre Harbison III run for 8 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+9
50.7%
Tre Harbison III run for 9 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
50.4%
Tre Harbison III run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+12
50.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 12 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
50.2%
Aaron McAllister run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
50.1%
Aaron McAllister run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-3
50.4%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Leighton McCarthy for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
51.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 5 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
50.5%
Tre Harbison III run for no gain to the Charl 39Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
44.7%
Jonathan Cruz 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3845% → 44%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
45.2%
Nick Tronti pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
45.0%
James Charles run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+2
44.1%
Nick Tronti pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 2 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+10
44.0%
Matthew Hayball punt for 56 yds , Victor Tucker returns for 10 yds to the Charl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.7%
Aaron McAllister run for no gain to the Charl 20Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
45.0%
Aaron McAllister run for 1 yd to the Charl 21Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+11
45.6%
Chris Reynolds run for 11 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
43.9%
Tre Harbison III run for 4 yds to the Charl 36Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-4
43.6%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 32Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
45.4%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Tyler RingwoodSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
46.0%
Connor Bowler punt for 44 yds, downed at the FlAtl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
40.8%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Jordan Merrell for 6 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
41.6%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Jordan Merrell, broken up by Luke MartinSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
40.6%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Aaron Young, broken up by Lance McMillanSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 4
OWN 30
-5
40.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
39.5%
Matthew Hayball punt for 60 yds, downed at the Charl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:4859% → 60%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
41.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 8 yds to the Charl 23Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-1
40.6%
Tre Harbison III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 22Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+2
40.3%
Chris Reynolds run for 2 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
39.8%
Connor Bowler punt for 43 yds, downed at the FlAtl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
37.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to BJ AlexanderSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
37.6%
Willie Wright run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:0960% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor TuckerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Tre Harbison III run for no gain to the Charl 25Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
41.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 14 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
38.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 8 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
38.4%
Tre Harbison III run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
50
+23
38.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 23 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
38.1%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+1
38.2%
Victor Tucker run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
38.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Cameron Dollar, broken up by Zyon GilbertSimilar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
36.8%
Jonathan Cruz 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:3537% → 55%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
37.0%
James Charles run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
36.9%
James Charles run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+14
35.8%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Aaron Young for 14 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
38.2%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Willie Wright for 4 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
38.9%
Nick Tronti run for 3 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+49
55.3%
Nick Tronti run for 49 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:0951% → 51%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 7 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
47.4%
Calvin Camp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
47.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 11 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
44.8%
Calvin Camp run for 1 yd to the Charl 43Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
45.0%
Chris Reynolds run for 5 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-4
45.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 44Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
48.9%
Connor Bowler punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlAtl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4847% → 74%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
47.3%
James Charles run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
47.8%
James Charles run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+4
50.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
51.0%
Larry McCammon III run for 35 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
74.4%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Logan Peterson for 25 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.0%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass complete to MCALLISTER, A. for 75 yards to the FAU0, clock 02:45, PENALTY CLT IR 5 yards to the CLT20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
69.2%
Chris Reynolds run for no gain to the Charl 20Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-3
69.7%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Leighton McCarthy for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 16 Chris Reynolds fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Caliph Brice , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
87.0%
Nick Tronti pass complete to T.J. Chase for 16 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5714% → 32%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.9%
Tre Harbison III run for 6 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
84.4%
Tre Harbison III run for no gain to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+25
85.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 25 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
83.0%
Victor Tucker run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
82.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 18 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
81.9%
Aaron McAllister run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
81.9%
Tre Harbison III run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
83.1%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor TuckerSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+5
87.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 5 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.4%
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
75.2%
Nick Tronti run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
74.8%
Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
74.1%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Michael Irvin II for 5 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
73.9%
Matthew Hayball punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Victor Tucker at the Charl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
75.9%
Tre Harbison III run for 4 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
75.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 12 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
73.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Aaron McAllister for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 4
50
-1
71.4%
Tre Harbison III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 49Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-8
72.5%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 13
OWN 41
0
78.2%
Connor Bowler punt for 57 yds, downed at the FlAtl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 81 yds · 5:2980% → 90%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
79.8%
Malcolm Davidson run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+21
80.2%
Nick Tronti run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, UR (Mikel Horton) to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
80.8%
Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
82.0%
Malcolm Davidson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
80.8%
Nick Tronti run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
82.9%
Nick Tronti run for 5 yds to the Charl 48Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+22
83.1%
James Charles run for 22 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
84.1%
Larry McCammon III run for 3 yds to the Charl 23Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+6
84.1%
Larry McCammon III run for 6 yds to the Charl 17Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
82.7%
Larry McCammon III run for no gain to the Charl 17Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
90.0%
Larry McCammon III run for no gain to the Charl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:2815% → 11%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
84.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete CHARLOTTE Penalty, intentional grounding (Chris Reynolds) to the Charl 11Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 17
OWN 11
+14
85.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 14 yds to the Charl 25Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+11
84.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 11 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+48
82.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 48 yds to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
73.8%
Chris Reynolds pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
74.2%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Chris Jones and Jaylen Joyner for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 11
OPP 17
-4
85.5%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Jaylen Joyner for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+12
89.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 12 yds to the FlAtl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:57
Nick Tronti pass complete to Logan Peterson for 25 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
+23.3
TD · Q4 13:00
Tre Harbison III run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q3 1:57
Nick Tronti pass complete to T.J. Chase for 16 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
+17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com