Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 35 at UTSA 37

UTSA
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2020 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:38 · Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+21.0+10.50−10.5−21.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+10.6Home team on offense+6.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:40: Chaton Mobley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +18.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:01: Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +18.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:12: Josh Adkins pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:46: Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MTSU win probability +18.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:04: Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MTSU win probability +23.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:20MTSU 4th & 9 at UTSA 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:20UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:07MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:03UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 3 at MTSU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:38MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:13UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UTSA 4th & 7 at MTSU 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:25UTSA 4th & 4 at MTSU 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−8.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:30UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:01MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−3.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:39UTSA 4th & 5 at MTSU 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−12.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:39MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:07UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:15MTSU 4th & 4 at UTSA 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−8.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:42UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 11:11UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:38UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:08MTSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:30MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:40MTSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:01UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:12UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:46MTSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:04MTSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.1%−3.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 4 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
67.0%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
67.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jayy McDonald for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+7
67.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 50 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 7 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
66.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
66.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for no gain to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+24
66.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 24 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
67.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-2
67.1%
Sheldon Jones pass intercepted Gregory Grate Jr. return for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 3:3633% → 34%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
66.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 8 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+2
66.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
66.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 19 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
66.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
66.4%
O'HARA, Asher rush quarterback draw for 1 yard to the UTSA41 (WILEY, Charles), PENALTY UTSA offside defense (MATTERSON, B.) 5 yards to the UTSA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+12
66.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 12 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
66.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+9
66.3%
O'HARA, Asher slant pass incomplete to PIERCE, Jarrin, PENALTY UTSA holding (MAYFIELD, Corey) 9 yards to the UTSA9, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
66.3%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Jamal Ligon for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 15Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
66.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-10
66.0%
O'HARA, Asher post pass complete to PIERCE, Jarrin for 15 yards to the UTSA0, clock 08:37, PENALTY MT holding (RYLES, Jahlil) 10 yards to the UTSA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
+16
66.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 16 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
65.8%
Crews Holt 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
65.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
65.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 17 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
66.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-14
66.0%
Frank Harris sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 14 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 26
OWN 30
+16
65.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 16 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
65.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quincy Riley at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
65.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+16
65.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 16 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
65.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
65.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
65.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+3
65.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 3 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5764% → 63%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
64.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Julon Williams for 1 yd to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+5
64.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
62.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Julon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
62.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
63.5%
Jayy McDonald run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+4
63.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
63.2%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted Tariq Woolen return for no gain to the MTnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3265% → 64%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
64.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
64.5%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
64.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-3
63.5%
Brennon Dingle run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -23 yds · 0:0039% → 36%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
61.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-5
61.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 14
OWN 38
-2
62.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 16
OWN 36
-5
62.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 21
OWN 31
-12
63.0%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 12 yards to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 33
OWN 19
0
63.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 21 yds, downed at the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:1664% → 69%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
63.7%
HARRIS, Frank deep pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z., PENALTY MT pass interference (RILEY, Quincy) 15 yards to the MT25, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
69.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 25 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11INT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
67.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 7 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
66.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
66.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
66.1%
Asher O'Hara sacked by De'Marco Guidry for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 17
OWN 40
0
67.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 17
OWN 40
-14
67.9%
Asher O'Hara pass intercepted Donyai Taylor return for 28 yds to the UTSA 32 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Dorian Hinton) to the MTnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:3670% → 77%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
70.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
76.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 11 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
75.8%
O'HARA, Asher rush quarterback draw for 2 yards to the MT27 (LIGON, Jamal), PENALTY MT personal foul (GILCHRIST, Will) 13 yards to the MT12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 23
OWN 12
-2
75.9%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+16
76.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
76.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marquel Tinsley for 6 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
76.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 33 Sincere McCormick fumbled, forced by Gregory Grate Jr., recovered by TexSASimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
76.7%
B.J. Daniels run for 3 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-2
76.5%
Frank Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
75.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 57 yds, downed at the MTnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 2:1921% → 37%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
79.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+7
79.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 7 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+30
79.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 30 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
77.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
77.5%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+42
78.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 42 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
75.4%
Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
75.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 8 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 1:0869% → 74%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Gavin Sharp, broken up by Jorden StarlingSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
68.2%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+20
67.7%
Frank Harris run for 20 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
71.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Gavin SharpSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
70.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+11
69.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+29
71.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 29 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.6%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Zakhari Franklin, broken up by Quincy RileySimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
70.6%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Gavin Sharp, broken up by Gregory Grate Jr.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
73.5%
Hunter Duplessis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:3574% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
74.1%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
73.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+14
72.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
75.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
50
+34
75.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 34 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
76.1%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 2 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
76.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+1
75.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 1 yd to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
79.2%
Hunter Duplessis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5522% → 35%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
78.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
77.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+38
78.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 38 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
75.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 15 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
75.1%
Jayy McDonald run for 6 yds to the TexSA 7Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
75.1%
Jayy McDonald run for 3 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
65.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 4 yds for a TD, (TEAM PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
71.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
72.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Leroy WatsonSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
71.5%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus, broken up by Quincy RileySimilar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
69.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 56 yds, downed at the MTnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 96 yds · 1:0630% → 55%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+64
69.8%
Jayy McDonald run for 64 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
63.9%
Asher O'Hara run for 8 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+24
45.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 0:3957% → 75%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
57.2%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+48
56.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 48 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
TEAM pass incomplete MIDDLE TENN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
70.6%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Jamal Ligon and Trumane Bell II for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+2
71.7%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 2 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:4171% → 87%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
71.0%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 17 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
73.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+15
73.7%
ADKINS, Josh deep pass incomplete to CEPHUS, Joshua, PENALTY MT pass interference (BLANKENSHIP, R.) 15 yards to the MT31, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
74.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
74.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 1 yd to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+16
73.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 16 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
74.7%
Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2615% → 37%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
83.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 12 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
83.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
81.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Marquel Tinsley, broken up by Corey Mayfield Jr.Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+4
82.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
82.2%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+20
83.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, personal foul (Clarence Hicks) to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
81.3%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
62.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:0772% → 87%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
72.2%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 5 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
73.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+20
72.3%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 20 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
75.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Leroy Watson for 8 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
75.5%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Leroy Watson for 15 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
76.4%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
76.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
75.0%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Sheldon JonesSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
86.5%
Hunter Duplessis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
84.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 14 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.0%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
83.4%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+4
84.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Marquel Tinsley for 4 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
84.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
87.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
87.3%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
86.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
85.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 43 yds , Quincy Riley returns for no gain to the MTnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:0115% → 14%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
85.1%
Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+19
85.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 19 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
83.2%
Asher O'Hara run for 10 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
81.8%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 15
OPP 37
0
84.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Kelechi NwachukuSimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+11
87.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jayy McDonald for 11 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 4
OPP 26
0
86.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Marquel Tinsley, broken up by Kelechi NwachukuSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
91.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
91.4%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
90.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Brennon Dingle, broken up by Reed BlankenshipSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+6
90.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 28 , Quincy Riley returns for 6 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 30TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:4311% → 38%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
89.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
87.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for no gain to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+11
88.6%
Asher O'Hara run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
87.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 6
50
0
86.4%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 6
50
+8
87.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 8 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
86.3%
Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+12
87.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jayy McDonald for 12 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
86.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+21
85.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 21 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
84.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
62.4%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
89.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
89.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:04
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-23.7
TD · Q3 6:40
Chaton Mobley run for 24 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)
-18.4
TD · Q4 14:46
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com