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UAB

UAB 42 at South Alabama 10

USA
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2020 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jared Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:26: Spencer Brown 1 Yd Run (Matthew Quinn Kick) — UAB win probability +1.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:33: Jalen Tolbert 38 Yd pass from Chance Lovertich (Diego Guajardo Kick) — USA win probability +3.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 12:57: Diego Guajardo 31 Yd Field Goal — USA win probability +2.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: USA +2 timeouts on the defense).
  4. TD · Q2 3:20: Trea Shropshire 6 Yd pass from Bryson Lucero (Matthew Quinn Kick) — UAB win probability +4.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:15: Austin Watkins 15 Yd pass from Bryson Lucero (Matthew Quinn Kick) — UAB win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:17USA 4th & 8 at USA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32UAB 4th & 1 at USA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:26USA 4th & 12 at USA 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:51UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57USA 4th & 10 at UAB 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:00USA 4th & 2 at UAB 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:39USA 4th & 14 at UAB 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:54USA 4th & 8 at USA 46, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03UAB 4th & 12 at UAB 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:23USA 4th & 6 at midfield, down 18
    Close callPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:14UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:21USA 4th & 12 at USA 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:53UAB 4th & 9 at USA 46, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:47USA 4th & 4 at UAB 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−1.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:14UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:26UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:33USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:20UAB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:20UAB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:15UAB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:08UAB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4071% → 71%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+56
28.7%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Austin Watkins for 56 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
29.0%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
29.2%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
28.9%
Spencer Brown 15 Yd Run (Matthew Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3429% → 29%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
29.0%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+11
29.1%
Carlos Davis run for 11 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
29.2%
Chance Lovertich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
29.2%
Kawaan Baker run for 2 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
29.3%
Chance Lovertich pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
29.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:4571% → 73%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
29.3%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 9 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
29.2%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 33Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+10
29.3%
Spencer Brown run for 10 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
29.2%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Austin Watkins for 22 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
29.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 9 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-1
28.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
29.1%
Bryson Lucero run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+4
29.2%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
28.8%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+9
28.9%
Spencer Brown run for 9 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
28.9%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.1%
Spencer Brown 1 Yd Run (Matthew Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:3928% → 27%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
28.3%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
28.2%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
27.7%
Chance Lovertich run for 11 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
27.4%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
27.1%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
27.2%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+16
27.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 45 yds , Myron Mitchell returns for 16 yds to the UAB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2274% → 74%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
26.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
26.4%
Bryson Lucero pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+9
26.5%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 9 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q1 0:51
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+27
26.3%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 42 yds, downed at the SOUTHALA 15 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Harrell) to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:5827% → 32%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
27.2%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
27.1%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+29
27.1%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 29 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.5%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
32.1%
Jalen Tolbert 38 Yd pass from Chance Lovertich (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:1833% → 35%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+28
33.1%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 14 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jalen Rayam) to the UAB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
33.1%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the UAB 13Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
33.3%
Caullin Lacy run for no gain to the UAB 13Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
32.5%
Chance Lovertich pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
35.3%
Diego Guajardo 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3167% → 68%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.9%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Trea ShropshireSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Hayden PittmanSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+39
33.7%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Austin Watkins for 39 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
31.3%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
31.1%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+7
31.5%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
31.9%
Spencer Brown 20 Yd Run (Matthew Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 4:3628% → 27%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.4%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
28.4%
Carlos Davis run for 33 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
29.7%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 47Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+11
28.8%
Lovertich, Chance pass incomplete to Cole, Riley, PENALTY UAB pass interference (Harris, Brontae) 11 yards to the UAB36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
29.4%
AJ Phillips run for 1 yd to the UAB 35Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
30.4%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+7
29.2%
AJ Phillips run for 7 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+3
27.7%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Trent Tyre for 3 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
29.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 27Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-7
29.1%
Chance Lovertich sacked by Jordan Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the UAB 34Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 19
OPP 34
+5
27.6%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
26.6%
Diego Guajardo 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0768% → 79%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
31.6%
Lucious Stanley run for 8 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+3
29.7%
Lucious Stanley run for 3 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+52
27.8%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 52 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
25.9%
Lucious Stanley run for 2 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
25.4%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Gerrit PrinceSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
21.0%
Trea Shropshire 6 Yd pass from Bryson Lucero (Matthew Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1018% → 17%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
18.1%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Carlos Davis for 19 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
19.2%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+6
17.5%
Chance Lovertich run for 6 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
18.2%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to John Tank MillerSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
17.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3684% → 85%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
15.9%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 16Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-8
15.6%
Brown, Spencer rush for 3 yards to the UAB19, PENALTY UAB holding (Prince, Gerrit) 8 yards to the UAB8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 17
OWN 8
+2
16.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the UAB 10Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+3
14.9%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the UAB 13Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+10
15.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 49 yds , Jalen Wayne returns for 10 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
22.6%
Carlos Davis run for 24 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3215% → 14%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.0%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+21
14.9%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 6 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Keondre Swoopes) to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.0%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
15.1%
Chance Lovertich sacked by Noah Wilder for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+9
14.0%
Carlos Davis run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 6
50
0
14.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Myron Mitchell at the UAB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 15 yds · 4:0088% → 89%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
12.1%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 16Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
12.0%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Austin WatkinsSimilar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+9
12.2%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 9 yds to the UAB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.1%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
10.7%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Rob Johnson for 3 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
10.7%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 34Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
10.7%
UAB Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the UAB 30Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+26
10.6%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 42 yds , Jalen Wayne returns for 26 yds to the UAB 46 Jalen Wayne fumbled, forced by TD Marshall, recovered by UAB Kyle GreenwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1291% → 93%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
9.2%
Bryson Lucero pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
9.1%
Lucious Stanley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 45Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+20
9.1%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Austin Watkins for 20 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
8.5%
Bryson Lucero run for 1 yd to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
7.7%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Trea ShropshireSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-10
7.5%
Bryson Lucero sacked by Riley Cole for a loss of 10 yards to the SAlab 44 Bryson Lucero fumbled, forced by Riley Cole, recovered by SAlab Riley Cole , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1112% → 11%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
12.4%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-15
12.0%
Lovertich, Chance pass complete to Baker, Kawaan for 7 yards to the UAB49, PENALTY SOUTHALA personal foul (Davis, Carlos) 15 yards to the SOUTHALA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 25
OWN 29
+13
10.7%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 13 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
11.0%
Chance Lovertich pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
10.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:1993% → 95%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.2%
Spencer Brown run for 3 yds to the UAB 28Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
5.5%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Myron Mitchell for 16 yds to the UAB 44 UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Rob Johnson) to the UAB 29Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
5.7%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
5.4%
UAB Penalty, False Start (Colby Ragland) to the UAB 35Similar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
5.6%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 35Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+18
5.4%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 18 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.8%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Myron Mitchell UAB Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
4.6%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Spencer Brown for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
4.5%
Bryson Lucero pass incomplete to Myron MitchellSimilar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
4.9%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:588% → 7%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
8.1%
Carlos Davis run for 7 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+5
7.6%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Carlos Davis for 5 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+25
7.6%
Carlos Davis run for 25 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
8.2%
Chance Lovertich pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
8.0%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 17 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
8.3%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 4 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-1
7.8%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 40Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
6.9%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 3 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
6.6%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Carlos DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:2597% → 100%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
2.7%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
2.4%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+15
2.3%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Austin Watkins for 15 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
2.0%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+16
2.0%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Austin Watkins for 16 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
1.8%
Brown, Spencer rush for no gain to the SOUTHALA29, PENALTY UAB personal foul (Prince, Gerrit) 15 yards to the SOUTHALA44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 25
OPP 44
+15
1.8%
Lucero, Bryson pass incomplete to Watkins, Austin, PENALTY SOUTHALA pass interference (Melton, Ryan) 15 yards to the SOUTHALA29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UAB.Similar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
1.7%
DeWayne McBride run for 11 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
1.6%
Lucious Stanley run for 1 yd to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+2
1.5%
Bryson Lucero pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 2 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
0.2%
Austin Watkins 15 Yd pass from Bryson Lucero (Matthew Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.3%
Chance Lovertich run for 4 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+17
0.3%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 17 yds to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.3%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-9
0.3%
Chance Lovertich pass intercepted Noah Wilder return for 9 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.2%
Bryson Lucero pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+22
0.2%
DeWayne McBride run for 22 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
0.2%
DeWayne McBride run for 20 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
0.1%
DeWayne McBride run for 5 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
0.1%
UAB Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 6Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.1%
DeWayne McBride run for no gain to the SAlab 6Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
DeWayne McBride 6 Yd Run (Matthew Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
0.1%
Jared Wilson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
0.1%
Jared Wilson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
0.1%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
0.1%
Chance Lovertich pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+7
0.1%
Chance Lovertich run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
50
+6
0.1%
Chance Lovertich run for 6 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-5
0.1%
Jared Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:20
Trea Shropshire 6 Yd pass from Bryson Lucero (Matthew Quinn Kick)
-4.4
TD · Q2 14:33
Jalen Tolbert 38 Yd pass from Chance Lovertich (Diego Guajardo Kick)
+3.5
FG · Q2 12:57
Diego Guajardo 31 Yd Field Goal
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com