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LIB

Liberty 30 at Western Kentucky 24

WKU
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:43 · Team run for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:15: Malik Willis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +8.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:56: Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 24 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +11.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:33: Shedro Louis run for 29 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +21.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:43: Malik Willis run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir PAT MISSED) — LIB win probability +20.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:04: Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 36 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +19.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 17 at WKU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:27WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:57LIB 4th & 1 at WKU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:21LIB 4th & 6 at WKU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56WKU 4th & 3 at LIB 25, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:12LIB 4th & 1 at WKU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−1.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:33LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.0%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39LIB 4th & 14 at WKU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:56LIB 4th & 3 at WKU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    32.9%−0.7
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:30WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:33WKU 4th & 18 at WKU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−5.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:43WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:15LIB 4th & 3 at midfield, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:45WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:27LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:15LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:15WKU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:56WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:33LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:43LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:04WKU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
83.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-6
83.1%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 17
0
83.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
83.1%
John Haggerty punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:0217% → 19%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
82.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 12 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
82.6%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+32
82.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 32 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
82.5%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the WKent 4Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.0%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
81.3%
Gaej Walker run for 3 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
81.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the WKent 27Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
81.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
81.2%
John Haggerty punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:3620% → 23%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
80.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ Yarbrough, broken up by Dionte RuffinSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
80.5%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+12
80.5%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
80.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 12 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
80.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
80.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 15 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
80.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 14 yds to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
80.1%
Malik Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 9Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
80.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Brody Brumm for 3 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.2%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
80.1%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
80.2%
Peytton Pickett run for no gain to the WKent 40Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
80.3%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
77.0%
Alex Barbir 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:2578% → 74%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
77.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 7 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+7
77.7%
Gaej Walker run for 7 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
77.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 41Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
77.7%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the WKent 41Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+16
77.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 16 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
78.1%
Gaej Walker run for 7 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
78.1%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 4 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
78.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
78.4%
Gaej Walker run for no gain to the Liber 32Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+7
77.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 7 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
74.4%
Brayden Narveson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:4127% → 40%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
73.1%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+21
72.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 21 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
72.4%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-9
72.2%
MACK, J. rush for 23 yards to the WKU10 (KINCADE, A.;KEY, D.), PENALTY LIBERTY holding (KNIGHT, M.) 9 yards to the WKU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+6
72.7%
Malik Willis run for 6 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+9
72.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 9 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
72.2%
WILLIS, M. pass incomplete to YARBROUGH, CJ, PENALTY WKU pass interference (CRAY, R.) 9 yards to the WKU18, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
72.2%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the WKent 11Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
72.2%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa, broken up by Dionte RuffinSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+2
72.4%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the WKent 9Similar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+3
69.0%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
68.1%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the WKent 4Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.8%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 4:0061% → 69%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
61.3%
Gaej Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 10Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+6
61.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+23
59.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 23 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
60.5%
Gaej Walker run for 13 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
61.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
61.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 18 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
61.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 5 yds to the Liber 6Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
68.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8MISSED FG
18 plays · 51 yds · 5:3635% → 43%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
64.9%
Peytton Pickett run for 10 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
64.2%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ Yarbrough, broken up by Dominique BradshawSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-7
64.6%
Malik Willis sacked by Ricky Barber and Juwuan Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Liber 28Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+16
65.7%
Malik Willis run for 16 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
62.9%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
61.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+5
61.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
60.8%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+14
60.2%
Malik Willis run for 14 yds to the WKent 20 Malik Willis fumbled, forced by Omari Alexander, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
60.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to Joshua Mack for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 21Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-10
60.5%
STUBBS, DJ pass incomplete to LOFTON, J., QB hurry by KEY, D., PENALTY LIBERTY holding 10 yards to the WKU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 21
OPP 31
-1
61.1%
Joshua Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 22
OPP 32
+8
55.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jaivian Lofton for 8 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+42
56.8%
Alex Barbir 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
60.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
59.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 9 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+9
60.4%
Gaej Walker run for 9 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.0%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa, broken up by Roger CraySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
58.2%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Brody Brumm, broken up by Dionte RuffinSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+51
59.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 51 yds , Dayton Wade returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:0058% → 75%
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
57.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 17 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
59.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 4 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+21
60.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 21 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
61.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 9 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+2
62.9%
Malik Staples run for 2 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
62.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 2 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
74.5%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 24 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
66.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
65.2%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Joshua Mack, broken up by Darius ShippSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
65.5%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
65.0%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+10
64.6%
Joshua Mack run for 10 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
64.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
63.3%
Malik Willis run for no gain to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
64.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Chris Barrett for 5 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
63.3%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
63.3%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
64.6%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the WKent 19Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+2
66.4%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the WKent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
68.1%
Gaej Walker run for 1 yd to the WKent 18 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
68.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 1 yd to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
68.6%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 4 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
69.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Xavier Lane for 4 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
68.6%
John Haggerty punt for 43 yds, downed at the Liber 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:4337% → 64%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+51
63.5%
Malik Willis run for 51 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
57.7%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+4
57.3%
Shedro Louis run for 4 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
57.3%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 29Similar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+29
35.9%
Shedro Louis run for 29 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
43.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 8 Tyrrell Pigrome fumbled, recovered by WKent Tyrrell PigromeSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 18
OWN 8
0
43.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the WKent 8Similar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 18
OWN 8
0
41.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Malik StaplesSimilar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 18
OWN 8
+6
40.7%
John Haggerty punt for 55 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 6 yds to the Liber 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:1765% → 88%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
34.9%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+7
36.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Brody Brumm for 7 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+26
34.9%
Joshua Mack run for 26 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
32.9%
Joshua Mack run for 9 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
32.9%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
32.9%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the WKent 18Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
12.5%
Malik Willis run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.3%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
22.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Joshua Simon for 1 yd to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
21.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Joshua SimonSimilar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+17
21.1%
John Haggerty punt for 57 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 17 yds to the Liber 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
11.1%
Malik Willis run for 6 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
10.4%
Malik Willis run for 5 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
10.4%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
10.3%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
10.7%
Demario Douglas run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 3
50
0
11.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dayton Wade at the WKent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 3:4112% → 34%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
11.5%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 7Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+6
11.0%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the WKent 13Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+8
10.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 8 yds to the WKent 21Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 2
OWN 21
+9
11.0%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 9 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
12.2%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
11.5%
PIGROME, T. pass incomplete to PEARSON, J., PENALTY LIBERTY pass interference 15 yards to the WKU45, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
13.4%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 1 yd to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+18
13.3%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 18 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
14.7%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for no gain to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
33.9%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 36 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20END OF GAME
13 plays · 20 yds · 2:2186% → 95%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
14.1%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
13.0%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+1
11.7%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
10.9%
Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
10.9%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
10.1%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
4.8%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-9
4.9%
Team run for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:33
Shedro Louis run for 29 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q4 11:43
Malik Willis run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir PAT MISSED)
-20.4
TD · Q4 3:04
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 36 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+19.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com