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SMU

SMU 65 at North Texas 35

UNT
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:33 · Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 58 yds, downed at the SMU 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense−0.5Pregame prior−32.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:27: Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +3.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:31: Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 12 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +3.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:02: DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +7.1 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:44: Austin Aune run for 5 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +5.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:42: Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK) — SMU win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:33UNT 4th & 19 at UNT 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:44UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:27UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:21SMU 4th & 2 at UNT 16, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:42SMU 4th & 20 at UNT 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:42UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:30SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 37, up 24
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:31SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:13UNT 4th & 10 at UNT 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:02SMU 4th & 4 at UNT 4, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:02UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:42UNT 4th & 11 at UNT 34, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:52SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 36, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:33SMU 4th & 11 at UNT 29, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:33UNT 4th & 2 at SMU 2, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:33SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:44SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:27SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:31UNT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18SMU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:02UNT Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:53SMU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:44UNT Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:42SMU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:11SMU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:02UNT Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:12SMU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 10:52UNT Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
16.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
16.8%
Jason Bean run for 4 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
16.8%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 41 yds , Tyler Page returns for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:0483% → 83%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+50
17.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 50 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
17.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 1 yd to the NoTex 22Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+7
17.4%
Tj McDaniel run for 7 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
17.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.5%
Jason Bean run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 21 Jason Bean fumbled, recovered by NoTex Jason BeanSimilar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
17.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+5
17.5%
Jason Bean run for 5 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-5
17.4%
Jason Bean sacked by Shaine Hailey for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
17.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 58 yds, downed at the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:5682% → 83%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
17.9%
Tj McDaniel run for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
17.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
16.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for 62 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5INT
15 plays · 62 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 8 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
17.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Anterrious Gray) to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
17.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
17.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
17.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
17.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
17.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+3
17.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
17.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Greg White for 28 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
17.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
17.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
17.5%
Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
17.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
17.5%
Austin Aune pass intercepted, touchback. Brandon Stephens return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3983% → 87%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
16.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 14 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
16.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 10 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
16.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 17 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
16.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 11 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
16.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 9 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+9
16.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 9 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
16.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
16.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
13.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
13.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 23Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
13.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 10 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
13.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
13.6%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-4
13.6%
Bernardo Rodriguez run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8FG
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:3988% → 89%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
12.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
12.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
12.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+6
12.6%
Shane Buechele run for 6 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
12.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
11.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-11
11.7%
Shane Buechele sacked by Larry Nixon III for a loss of 11 yards to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
11.0%
Chris Naggar 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
12.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Anterrious Gray) to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+8
11.9%
Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
12.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 9 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
12.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
12.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
12.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
12.1%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
10.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cam Johnson) to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
10.4%
Tj McDaniel run for 6 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
10.3%
Tj McDaniel run for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
10.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+3
10.6%
Matt Fraanje punt for 30 yds , Deonte Simpson returns for 3 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 2:4212% → 16%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
11.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
12.0%
Jason Bean run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
50
0
12.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 10
50
+6
12.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
12.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
12.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
12.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
12.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 9 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+6
12.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
16.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 12 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
13.2%
Tj McDaniel run for 7 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
13.1%
Tj McDaniel run for 6 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
12.8%
Tj McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
12.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Shane Buechele for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
12.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
13.3%
Matt Fraanje punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Deonte Simpson at the NoTex 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
14.8%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Richard McBrydeSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
14.7%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
14.5%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+23
14.5%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Shaine Hailey at the NORTHTEXAS 29 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:4888% → 91%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
12.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
12.4%
Tj McDaniel run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 4
50
+42
12.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 42 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
12.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
12.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 3:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
9.4%
Chris Naggar 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
11.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-5
11.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Anterrious Gray) to the NoTex 24Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+6
11.4%
Jason Bean run for 6 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
11.5%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
11.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 54 yds, downed at the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 1:3192% → 96%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
8.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 21 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
8.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 17 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
7.8%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
7.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 13 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee Rice, broken up by Quinn WhitlockSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+20
7.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 20 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
7.6%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to GRANSON, Kylen, PENALTY UNT roughing passer (HOWELL, Kyleb) 7 yards to the UNT6, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
7.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the NoTex 2 Tyler Lavine fumbled, forced by Larry Nixon III, recovered by SMU Tyler LavineSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.4%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
5.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.1%
Tj McDaniel run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
6.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tj McDaniel for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
6.0%
Tj McDaniel run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:485% → 11%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
4.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 7 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+9
4.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 9 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
4.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
4.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
4.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
11.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:0993% → 97%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
6.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 11 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
6.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the NoTex 21 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (Austin Upshaw) to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 16
OPP 31
+22
6.5%
Shane Buechele run for 22 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
6.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Cam Johnson) to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
3.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:094% → 10%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.8%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jyaire Shorter, broken up by Brandon StephensSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
3.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+44
3.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 44 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
4.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
4.3%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+18
4.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 18 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
4.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (Jacob Brammer) to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
4.5%
Roderic Burns run for 7 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
9.9%
Austin Aune run for 5 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0294% → 99%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
6.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 21 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
5.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Danny Gray for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+4
5.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+5
5.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (Davontae McCrae) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 6
50
+10
5.2%
Shane Buechele run for 10 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
5.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 20 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
5.1%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+18
5.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 18 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
3.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
3.0%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Greg White, broken up by Brandon StephensSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
3.0%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
3.0%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 46 yds , Reggie Roberson Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 34 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:4798% → 100%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
1.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
1.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
1.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-8
1.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Judah Bell for 2 yds to the SMU 45 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
1.7%
Tj McDaniel run for 11 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
1.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
1.7%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+14
1.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+21
1.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 21 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
1.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
0.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds for a TD Chris Naggar kickoff for 3 yds , Deion Hair-Griffin return for 22 yds to the NoTex 22 Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 24 (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:090% → 2%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
0.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+8
0.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 8 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
0.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 10 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
0.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 25 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Donald ClaySimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
1.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 33 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 93 yds · 1:5099% → 100%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
0.6%
Tj McDaniel run for 7 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
0.5%
Tj McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+84
0.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 84 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
0.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
0.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 14 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
0.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+55
0.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 55 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
0.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+19
0.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 19 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.4%
Tj McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-2
0.4%
Tj McDaniel run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
0.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
0.5%
Matt Fraanje punt for 33 yds , Deonte Simpson returns for no gain to the NoTex 28 Deonte Simpson fumbled, recovered by SMU Tyler LavineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
0.2%
TaMerik Williams run for 7 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 3
OPP 21
-3
0.2%
TaMerik Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-5
0.2%
TaMerik Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
0.2%
Chris Naggar 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 30DOWNS
16 plays · 77 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
0.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 11 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
0.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
0.1%
Austin Aune run for 4 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
0.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 5
50
+12
0.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 12 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
0.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+13
0.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Upton Stout for 13 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
0.2%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
0.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+9
0.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 9 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
0.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
0.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 5:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 2Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
0.1%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
0.1%
Brandon Crossley run for 4 yds to the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:02
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q3 8:44
Austin Aune run for 5 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q3 5:42
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
-3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com