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UTSA

UTSA 51 at Texas State 48

TXST
2020 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2020 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:45 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 56Home team on offense−1.1Pregame prior+9.7Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:35: Brock Sturges run for 2 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK) — TXST win probability +27.3 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 3:24: Tyler Vitt pass intercepted for a TD Rashad Wisdom return for 81 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +25.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 25 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +27.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK) — TXST win probability +35.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT2 0:00: Hunter Duplessis 29 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +28.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:13UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:14TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:52UTSA 4th & 6 at TXST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:44TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:27UTSA 4th & 7 at TXST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:45TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:32UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 40, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:02TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:36TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:02UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 19, up 17
    Close callPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:32TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:07UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:45TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:55UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−3.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:06UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:26UTSA 4th & 14 at TXST 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−5.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−18.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:54TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.5%−5.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:24TXST 4th & 6 at UTSA 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−11.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:16UTSA 4th & 10 at midfield, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:48TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:23UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:43UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:44UTSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:28TXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:48UTSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:04TXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:35TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:24UTSA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:51TXST Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:4464% → 65%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
64.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Brock Sturges for 6 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+1
64.4%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+66
64.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Brock Sturges for 66 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1235% → 36%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
64.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 58 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
64.1%
Frank Harris run for 17 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5064% → 65%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
64.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
64.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
64.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 5 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-13
64.7%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Corey Mayfield Jr. return for 3 yds to the TEXSTATE 49 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:0736% → 36%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
64.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+7
64.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-3
64.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+3
64.2%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+14
64.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 56 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 14 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4364% → 63%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
64.0%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+9
63.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Blake Aragon for 9 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+2
64.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Blake Aragon for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-5
63.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+7
63.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 49 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 7 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:0437% → 37%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.5%
Brennon Dingle run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
63.3%
Frank Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
63.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+15
63.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
62.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 6 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
62.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-10
62.4%
Frank Harris run for no gain to the TexSA 44 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+5
63.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 5 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
63.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 43 yds, downed at the TexSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5663% → 62%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
63.3%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 5Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+21
63.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Chandler Speights for 21 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
63.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-4
63.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+3
62.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 3 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
62.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:0338% → 40%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
62.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+13
62.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 13 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
61.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
61.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+4
61.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
60.8%
Brenden Brady run for 13 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
60.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 9 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+12
60.0%
Brenden Brady run for 12 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
59.9%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-1
59.7%
Frank Harris sacked by Jarron Morris for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
60.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
59.7%
Hunter Duplessis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3060% → 59%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.4%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
60.4%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
59.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 4 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
59.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5341% → 43%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
59.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+2
59.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 2 yds to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+7
59.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
58.4%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+5
58.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 5 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
57.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 6 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
57.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2257% → 55%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
57.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+5
57.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Chandler Speights for 5 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 8
-2
56.0%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Jaylon Haynes for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 7
OWN 6
+1
55.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 7 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TexSA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1144% → 55%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
55.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
54.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
54.5%
Brennon Dingle run for 26 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
53.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
52.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+19
44.8%
Frank Harris run for 19 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4545% → 43%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
45.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Drue Jackson for 7 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 24
-1
45.1%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
43.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Brock SturgesSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
42.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 1:3856% → 76%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
44.1%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+9
43.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 9 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
42.6%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
41.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+10
42.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 10 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
42.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
41.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+6
41.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 6 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4872% → 73%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
28.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+1
27.5%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+2
27.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 2 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
27.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:1529% → 42%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
28.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 1
50
+21
29.3%
Brock Sturges run for 21 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
29.4%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+31
41.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 31 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2662% → 80%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+58
37.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 58 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
35.4%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
20.4%
Frank Harris run for 13 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0224% → 22%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jackson LanamSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-8
23.2%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Jamal Ligon for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 20 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 18
OWN 20
+7
22.7%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+8
22.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 8 yds to the TexSA 35 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Illegal Block (16 Yards) to the TexSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0879% → 79%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
20.7%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
20.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for no gain to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
20.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 48 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5121% → 19%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
21.0%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-5
20.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 14
OWN 24
-2
19.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 16
OWN 22
+8
19.1%
Brock Sturges run for 8 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
18.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2084% → 84%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-8
15.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brennon Dingle for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 18
OWN 26
0
16.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+6
16.0%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 12
OWN 32
+42
15.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 48 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 42 yds to the TEXSTATE 26 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:4119% → 33%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
19.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
19.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
20.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
33.3%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4572% → 72%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
28.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 13 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
26.3%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
25.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-3
26.0%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 42Similar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
28.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 4:2627% → 53%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
26.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 12 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+39
27.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 39 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
29.9%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Tariq Woolen for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 20
50
+10
27.3%
Brock Sturges run for 10 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+17
27.3%
Brock Sturges run for 17 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
30.7%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Trumane Bell II for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 30Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+17
28.1%
Calvin Hill run for 17 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
28.4%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
28.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+9
25.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 9 yds to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.1%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:0860% → 75%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
36.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
36.8%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+44
36.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 44 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
31.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-1
30.5%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-5
32.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 14
OPP 25
0
34.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Gavin SharpSimilar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+42
24.9%
Hunter Duplessis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27INT TD
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:5032% → 7%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
32.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-9
30.4%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Charles Wiley for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 19
OWN 9
+18
27.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Blake Aragon for 18 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+4
28.1%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
29.9%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
33.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
35.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+12
33.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 12 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
37.4%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
35.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-1
32.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 6
OPP 23
-81
7.2%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted for a TD Rashad Wisdom return for 81 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:096% → 31%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
5.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 33 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
6.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 9 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+1
8.5%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
8.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
7.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
31.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 20 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:2992% → 51%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
50
+4
8.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-2
6.9%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-2
5.2%
Joshua Cephus run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 10
50
+91
49.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 41 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 91 yds for a TD (Alan Orona PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0052% → 51%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
48.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 12Similar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+2
48.9%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 13
OWN 14
-1
49.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 31TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 84%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
40.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSt 20 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
41.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Gavin SharpSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
16.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 25 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 32TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
28.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 13 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
28.1%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
28.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+8
25.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
28.8%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 33MISSED FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0065% → 59%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
64.5%
Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+8
62.3%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
64.7%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
64.7%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 6Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
62.4%
Jeremiah Haydel pass complete to Blake Aragon for 3 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
58.7%
Alan Orona 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 34FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0060% → 88%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
40.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
42.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
40.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+29
11.8%
Hunter Duplessis 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD Tyler Vitt pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)
+35.9
FG · OT2 0:00
Hunter Duplessis 29 yd FG GOOD
-28.7
TD · OT 0:00
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 25 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-27.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com