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LT

Louisiana Tech 31 at Southern Miss 30

USM
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Griffin Fleming punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+4.8Home team on offense+5.0Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score differential+0.7Time remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:58: Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +13.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:36: Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 5 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:31: Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 32 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +11.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:29: Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 35 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +20.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:14: Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +69.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 7 at LT 24, tied
    Close callWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:58LT 4th & 2 at USM 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:08LT 4th & 10 at USM 10, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−5.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:44LT 4th & 3 at USM 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−1.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:43USM 4th & 8 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:58LT 4th & 19 at LT 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−2.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:31USM 4th & 1 at LT 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    79.6%−2.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 7 at USM 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:40LT 4th & 7 at LT 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:06USM 4th & 19 at LT 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−7.9
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−18.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:14LT 4th & 4 at USM 4, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−23.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−26.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:49LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:00USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:44USM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:58USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:36USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:31LT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:29LT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:14LT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−13.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1DOWNS
15 plays · 54 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
69.3%
Don Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
69.3%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
69.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 6 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+18
69.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 18 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
69.3%
Demarcus Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+5
69.3%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass incomplete to JONES, Tim, PENALTY TECH offside (GRUBBS, Tyler) 5 yards to the TECH40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+13
69.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 13 yds to the LaTch 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
69.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
69.3%
Don Ragsdale run for no gain to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-5
69.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+3
69.3%
Jack Abraham run for 3 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+3
69.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 3 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 7:0932% → 40%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
68.3%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+9
68.1%
Justin Henderson run for 9 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
68.1%
Justin Henderson run for 7 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+12
67.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 12 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
67.7%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 16 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
67.6%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
67.6%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+11
67.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 11 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
67.5%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+6
67.5%
Jawaun Johnson run for 6 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+1
67.7%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+2
68.0%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
67.5%
Justin Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
67.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Justin Henderson for 6 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.1%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:4962% → 67%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
61.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
62.7%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass incomplete to JONES, Tim, PENALTY TECH roughing passer (KENDZIOR, Eric) 15 yards to the TECH39, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
63.1%
Don Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
63.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 4 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
63.1%
Don Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
62.8%
Don Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
62.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 1 yd to the LaTch 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+10
62.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 10 yds to the LaTch 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
62.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+12
62.8%
Don Ragsdale run for 12 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:5237% → 42%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
63.2%
Justin Henderson run for 11 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
62.3%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
62.5%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Justin Henderson for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+6
62.3%
Aaron Allen run for 6 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
62.0%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 11 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
61.4%
ALLEN, Aaron pass incomplete to HARDY, Adrian, PENALTY USM pass interference (SHORTS, Malik) 15 yards to the USM16, 1ST DOWN TECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
61.2%
Israel Tucker run for 10 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
61.2%
ALLEN, Aaron rush for no gain to the USM6 (LATHAM, S.;BOZEMAN, Swayze), PENALTY TECH illegal formation 5 yards to the USM11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
61.2%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
61.2%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 10Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
62.3%
Aaron Allen pass incomplete to Smoke Harris, broken up by Malik ShortsSimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
57.6%
Jacob Barnes 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
67.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 74 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.1%
Israel Tucker run for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
65.7%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
66.2%
Israel Tucker run for 10 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
64.8%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 7
50
0
64.7%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Natrone BrooksSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 7
50
+8
65.2%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
64.5%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
64.7%
Justin Henderson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
64.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Justin Henderson for 3 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
66.1%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:0767% → 68%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
67.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 13 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-8
69.4%
Jack Abraham sacked by Milton Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 18
OWN 40
0
68.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Don RagsdaleSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+10
67.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Marquis McCoy for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 8
50
0
67.5%
Griffin Fleming punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8END OF HALF
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:2832% → 32%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
67.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 16 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
67.1%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 18 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
64.6%
Luke Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-17
67.9%
Luke Anthony sacked by Tahj Sykes for a loss of 17 yards to the LaTch 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
67.1%
Justin Henderson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-15
66.9%
Aaron Allen pass intercepted Santrell Latham return for 15 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
80.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
77.4%
Aaron Allen sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 14 Aaron Allen fumbled, recovered by LaTch Adrian Hardy , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 19
OWN 14
-6
77.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Justin Henderson for a loss of 6 yards to the LaTch 8Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 25
OWN 8
+6
78.8%
Justin Henderson run for 6 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q3 13:58
4TH & 19
OWN 14
0
79.1%
Jacob Barnes punt for 41 yds, downed at the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:5181% → 92%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
81.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 9 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-4
81.5%
Don Ragsdale run for 6 yds to the SoMis 40 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Jason Brownlee) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 5
50
+21
81.3%
Don Ragsdale run for 21 yds to the LaTch 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
81.8%
RAGSDALE, D. rush for no gain to the TECH29 (HANNIBAL, Zach), PENALTY USM holding (FOXWORTH, Bryce) 10 yards to the TECH39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+3
81.2%
Jack Abraham run for 3 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+24
80.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 24 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
81.8%
Kevin Perkins run for 6 yds to the LaTch 6Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
81.8%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY TECH offside defense (KENDZIOR, Eric) 3 yards to the TECH3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-2
81.8%
Don Ragsdale run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 5Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
92.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 5 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0511% → 23%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.3%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
89.7%
Israel Tucker run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
50
+4
88.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
88.8%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
88.5%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
88.6%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+32
77.5%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 32 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14INT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:2184% → 87%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
83.8%
Don Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
83.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for no gain to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+6
83.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 6 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
82.2%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
86.0%
Jack Abraham run for 11 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
86.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-23
86.7%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Deshon Hall return for 23 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:1017% → 37%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
82.7%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
82.9%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+11
83.8%
Luke Anthony run for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
62.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 35 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2970% → 67%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
69.5%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
69.1%
Don Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+1
67.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Don Ragsdale for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
67.1%
Griffin Fleming punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
69.8%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
69.4%
Justin Henderson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+5
68.7%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 5 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
67.6%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 5 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
66.0%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 2
50
-5
66.0%
Aaron Allen sacked by Santrell Latham for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
70.5%
Jacob Barnes punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 5:5175% → 89%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
74.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
74.5%
Kevin Perkins run for 9 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
75.2%
Kevin Perkins run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
75.3%
Kevin Perkins run for 16 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
78.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kevin Perkins for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 11
50
+27
76.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 27 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
79.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
79.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaTch 16Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+5
78.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 5 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
79.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 12Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
79.6%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 19
OPP 20
+37
89.1%
Briggs Bourgeois 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
25 plays · 74 yds · 4:5216% → 88%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.3%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
84.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+10
85.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 10 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+7
83.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+2
80.6%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-5
80.5%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
81.7%
Justin Henderson run for 6 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
81.0%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.0%
Luke Anthony pass incomplete to Smoke Harris, broken up by Eric Scott Jr.Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+24
80.9%
Greg Garner run for 24 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
77.6%
Greg Garner run for 5 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+3
75.0%
Greg Garner run for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
76.9%
Greg Garner run for 3 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
75.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 4 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+6
75.0%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 6 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
75.0%
Greg Garner run for 4 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
75.0%
Luke Anthony run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 5 Luke Anthony fumbled, recovered by LaTch Luke AnthonySimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
79.6%
Greg Garner run for 1 yd to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
11.9%
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:14
Luke Anthony pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-69.1
TD · Q3 0:29
Luke Anthony pass complete to Smoke Harris for 35 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-20.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com