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USA

South Alabama 32 at Southern Miss 21

USM
2020 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2020 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:51 · Mason Hunt punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+23.5Home team on offense−5.2Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:27: Don Ragsdale run for 2 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +6.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 10:23: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 31 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +12.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:56: Briggs Bourgeois 28 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +5.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:20: Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 52 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED) — USA win probability +14.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:42: Naricuss Driver run for 1 yd for a TD (Naricuss Driver pass to Luke Baker for Two-Point Conversion) — USM win probability +12.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:48USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:17USM 4th & 10 at USA 34, down 6
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51USM 4th & 21 at USM 14, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:24USA 4th & 6 at USM 28, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:14USM 4th & 7 at USA 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−6.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:00USM 4th & 10 at USM 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:51USA 4th & 3 at USM 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%−1.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−8.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:48USA 4th & 1 at USM 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−3.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:56USM 4th & 10 at USA 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:55USA 4th & 5 at USM 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%−1.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:15USA 4th & 3 at USM 3, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:08USM 4th & 7 at USA 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−9.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:42USM 4th & 1 at USA 1, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−7.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:40USA 4th & 5 at USM 16, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:04USM 4th & 5 at USA 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:57USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:30USA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:27USM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:23USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:20USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:42USM Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5820% → 20%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.4%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 13:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+73
80.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 73 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) Diego Guajardo kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:0480% → 79%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.0%
Don Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
79.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Dee Baker for no gain to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
79.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
79.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Jason Brownlee) to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
79.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Bryce Foxworth) to the SoMis 21Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
78.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 4 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:0621% → 23%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
78.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 3 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
78.5%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+6
78.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Trent Tyre for 6 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
77.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-20
77.5%
Desmond Trotter pass intercepted Eric Scott Jr. return for 20 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0978% → 76%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
77.8%
Abraham, Jack pass complete to Brownlee, Jason for 13 yards to the SOUMISS48, PENALTY SOUMISS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOUMISS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+20
77.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
50
0
77.9%
Don Ragsdale run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
50
+16
77.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 16 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
78.0%
Don Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-2
77.5%
Dee Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
76.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
75.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 33 yds, downed at the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 3:4024% → 32%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+13
76.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 13 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
75.4%
Carlos Davis run for 6 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+3
74.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+5
74.6%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
74.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+18
74.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 18 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
73.5%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+49
73.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 49 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.8%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3470% → 68%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
69.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
68.6%
Jack Abraham sacked by Gi'Narious Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
68.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3334% → 34%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
66.2%
Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-3
65.6%
Desmond Trotter pass intercepted Tyler Barnes return for 3 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:4168% → 73%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
67.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Antavious Willis for 8 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+4
67.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
67.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Antavious Willis for 16 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
67.4%
Don Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 9
50
-9
66.7%
Abraham, Jack pass complete to Gunter, Grayson for 5 yards to the SOUTHALA45, PENALTY SOUMISS holding (McCoy, Marquis) 9 yards to the SOUMISS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+10
65.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 10 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+47
65.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 47 yds to the SAlab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.5%
Don Ragsdale run for no gain to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.8%
Don Ragsdale run for 2 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 4:5631% → 38%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
69.2%
Caullin Lacy run for 6 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+8
67.7%
Carlos Davis run for 8 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
67.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 6 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
66.4%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
65.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 11 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
63.6%
Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+11
62.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 11 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
62.3%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
62.2%
Desmond Trotter run for 7 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-3
60.9%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+46
61.9%
Diego Guajardo 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 5:0464% → 64%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
63.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
64.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
64.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+16
63.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 16 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
64.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
63.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+13
63.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 13 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
65.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+7
64.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 7 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
64.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Antavious Willis for 5 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
63.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+2
61.7%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 2
OPP 3
-5
60.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 8Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
63.8%
Briggs Bourgeois 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:0938% → 39%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
62.4%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 12 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.6%
Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Carlos DavisSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-1
61.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5265% → 62%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
62.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 31 yds, downed at the SAlab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:2939% → 55%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
60.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
61.1%
Carlos Davis run for 12 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.7%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
59.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 7 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
59.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+2
61.4%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 12 yds to the SoMis 25 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalen Tolbert) to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
61.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
57.5%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
56.9%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+31
44.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 31 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:1446% → 50%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
45.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 5 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
46.2%
Kevin Perkins run for 7 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
45.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 13 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
46.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
46.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 15 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
47.8%
Abraham, Jack pass incomplete to Brownlee, Jason, PENALTY SOUTHALA pass interference (Rockette, Devin) 15 yards to the SOUTHALA11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUMISS.Similar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
47.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-1
47.0%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 11Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
44.3%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
49.9%
Briggs Bourgeois 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15FG
15 plays · 85 yds · 4:2754% → 65%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
46.0%
Desmond Trotter run for no gain to the SAlab 12Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
45.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 7 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+5
45.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Brandon Crum for 5 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
43.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 16 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
40.3%
Trotter, Desmond pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference (Brooks, Natrone) 15 yards to the SOUMISS45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
39.5%
Caullin Lacy run for 5 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
38.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
39.3%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jamel ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+31
41.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 31 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
37.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
37.1%
Carlos Davis run for 4 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.4%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
34.6%
Diego Guajardo 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5336% → 32%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.3%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+33
34.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Marquis McCoy for 33 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
39.1%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+8
38.4%
Abraham, Jack pass incomplete to Gunter, Grayson, PENALTY SOUTHALA pass interference (Flenord, Davyn) 8 yards to the SOUTHALA17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUMISS.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
38.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+1
38.3%
Don Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the SAlab 14Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
34.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Don RagsdaleSimilar
Q4 14:08
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
31.6%
Briggs Bourgeois 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:4268% → 94%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
32.1%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 18Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+11
31.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 11 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
26.7%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
25.9%
Desmond Trotter run for 10 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
23.7%
Carlos Davis run for 5 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
21.4%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+52
6.5%
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 52 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3110% → 21%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.2%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+42
9.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 42 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
11.8%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 37 Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jack AbrahamSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+17
9.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 17 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
11.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 5 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
11.1%
Kevin Perkins run for 4 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
10.4%
Kevin Perkins run for 2 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
10.2%
Jack Abraham run for 7 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
10.0%
Kevin Perkins run for no gain to the SAlab 2Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.9%
Kevin Perkins run for 1 yd to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.3%
Naricuss Driver run for 1 yd for a TD (Naricuss Driver pass to Luke Baker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:5788% → 97%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Carlos Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 25Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+40
11.2%
Carlos Davis run for 40 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
7.9%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
7.2%
Trotter, Desmond pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY SOUMISS offside (Kitchen, Eriq) 5 yards to the SOUMISS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+7
6.7%
Terrion Avery run for 7 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
5.5%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+2
4.0%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+1
3.0%
AJ Phillips run for 1 yd to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
2.8%
Diego Guajardo 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:294% → 4%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
3.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 26 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
4.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
4.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kevin Perkins for 4 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+35
4.7%
Jack Abraham run for 35 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
5.8%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
6.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 3 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
3.9%
Jack Abraham sacked by Jeremiah Littles for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
3.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Marquis McCoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
2.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:20
Chance Lovertich pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 52 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED)
-14.9
TD · Q4 5:42
Naricuss Driver run for 1 yd for a TD (Naricuss Driver pass to Luke Baker for Two-Point Conversion)
+12.8
TD · Q3 10:23
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 31 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com