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HCU

Houston Christian 31 at North Texas 57

UNT
2020 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2020 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:36 · Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the HstnB 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:35: Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 19 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams PAT MISSED) — UNT win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:39: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Alfaro for 7 yds for a TD, (Gino Garcia KICK) — HCU win probability +3.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:18: Zach Williams 30 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +0.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:23: Jason Bean run for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNT win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:08: Oscar Adaway III run for 35 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams KICK) — UNT win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 2 at HCU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:31HCU 4th & 2 at UNT 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:43HCU 4th & 6 at UNT 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:35HCU 4th & 5 at HCU 36, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:54UNT 4th & 3 at HCU 48, up 13
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:25HCU 4th & 10 at UNT 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:18UNT 4th & 13 at HCU 13, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00HCU 4th & 9 at UNT 33, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:41HCU 4th & 5 at UNT 33, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.1%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:23HCU 4th & 6 at HCU 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:08HCU 4th & 7 at HCU 28, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:37HCU 4th & 9 at UNT 20, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:25HCU 4th & 17 at HCU 12, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:19UNT 4th & 1 at HCU 16, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:44UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 41, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:36UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 45, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8HCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:31UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:07UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:35UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:39HCU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:23UNT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:08UNT Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:37UNT Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:30HCU Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:25UNT Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:19UNT Touchdown, up 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:36HCU Touchdown, down 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:36HCU Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2994% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.1%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+23
94.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 23 yds to the HstnB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
94.1%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the HstnB 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
94.1%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the HstnB 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+4
94.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the HstnB 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+2
94.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the HstnB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
94.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 6 yds to the HstnB 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
94.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
93.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 33 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 85 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
93.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ean Beek for 4 yds to the HstnB 14Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
93.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Vernon HarrellSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+51
93.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 51 yds Vernon Harrell fumbled, forced by DeShawn Gaddie, recovered by HstnB DJ Dormeus for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
93.6%
Ean Beek run for 6 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+6
93.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to DJ Dormeus for 6 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
93.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+8
93.6%
Jerreth Sterns run for 8 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+1
93.7%
Ean Beek run for 1 yd to the NoTex 5Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 2
OPP 5
0
93.7%
LaDarius Turner run for no gain to the NoTex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 95 yds · 2:1693% → 94%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
93.1%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+4
93.1%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
93.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
93.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jaelon DardenSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+27
93.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 27 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
93.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Roderic Burns for 9 yds to the HstnB 49Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+2
93.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the HstnB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
93.3%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Keaton Dickey) to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
94.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Greg White for 32 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:246% → 7%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
93.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to DJ Dormeus for 7 yds to the HstnB 25Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+6
93.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to DJ DormeusSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+22
93.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Alfaro for 22 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
93.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 3 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
93.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+8
93.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
93.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
93.4%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-5
93.4%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Vernon Harrell) to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+6
93.5%
Ean Beek run for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
93.1%
Gino Garcia 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:0894% → 96%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
93.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+11
93.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 11 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+25
93.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 25 yds to the HstnB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.9%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Jyaire Shorter, broken up by Keaton DickeySimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
93.9%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the HstnB 31Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+9
93.8%
Tre Siggers run for 9 yds to the HstnB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
93.9%
Jason Bean run for 3 yds to the HstnB 19Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
95.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 19 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
95.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jaylon Johnson for 6 yds to the HstnB 25Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
95.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jaylon Johnson for 6 yds to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the HstnB 36Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
95.7%
Bailey Zappe run for no gain to the HstnB 36Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
95.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+5
95.8%
Blake Patterson punt for 46 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 5 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.2%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
96.2%
Jason Bean pass intercepted Patrick Wolfe return for no gain to the NoTex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:564% → 8%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
95.6%
Jerreth Sterns run for 4 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+6
95.6%
Ean Beek run for 6 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
95.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to DJ Dormeus for 4 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+8
95.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jaylon Johnson for 8 yds to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Alfaro for 7 yds for a TD, (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:4594% → 94%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
93.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 20 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
93.9%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+3
93.7%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the HstnB 48Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
93.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 3:197% → 7%
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 5 yds to the HstnB 25Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
93.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jaylon Johnson for 3 yds to the HstnB 28Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
93.1%
Bailey Zappe run for 3 yds to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to DJ DormeusSimilar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
93.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+32
93.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 32 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
92.7%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
93.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 15
OPP 42
-5
93.2%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Doro Omerhi) to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+18
93.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 18 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+16
92.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 16 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
92.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
92.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
92.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh AlfaroSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
92.9%
Gino Garcia 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:0794% → 95%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.7%
Austin Aune run for 6 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
93.7%
Austin Aune run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+13
93.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 13 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.0%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Tra FluellenSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+49
93.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 49 yds to the HstnB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
94.1%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the HstnB 8Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
94.1%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the HstnB 1Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
93.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal participation (-5 Yards) to the HstnB 6Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
94.0%
Austin Aune run for a loss of 7 yards to the HstnB 13 Austin Aune fumbled, forced by Brennan Young, recovered by NoTex Austin AuneSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
94.9%
Zach Williams 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:186% → 7%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
93.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ean Beek for 11 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Davontae McCrae) to the HstnB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
93.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Larry Nixon III) to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
92.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+1
93.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ean Beek for 1 yd to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+50
92.6%
Gino Garcia 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:198% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.3%
Ean Beek run for 11 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
92.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ben RatzlaffSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
92.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds to the HstnB 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
92.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jaylon Johnson for 10 yds to the HstnB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
91.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to DJ Dormeus for 3 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
91.6%
Ean Beek run for 6 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+5
91.5%
Ean Beek run for 5 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
91.6%
Ean Beek run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-5
91.8%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Jerreth Sterns) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+11
92.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 11 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
91.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jaylon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+50
92.3%
Gino Garcia 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1893% → 97%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.4%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
93.4%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+10
93.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 10 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
93.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
93.7%
Jason Bean run for 8 yds to the HstnB 47Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+10
93.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 10 yds to the HstnB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
97.4%
Jason Bean run for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh AlfaroSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds to the HstnB 29Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
95.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to DJ DormeusSimilar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
96.0%
Blake Patterson punt for 50 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for no gain to the NoTex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:3897% → 99%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+44
97.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Greg White for 44 yds to the HstnB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.4%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Deonte SimpsonSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 35 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Ean Beek run for 5 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
99.4%
Ean Beek run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 28Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ean BeekSimilar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Blake Patterson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:1999% → 100%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jaelon Darden, broken up by Patrick WolfeSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+13
99.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 13 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
99.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 25 yds to the HstnB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the HstnB 21Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+13
99.4%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devion Hargrove) to the HstnB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.4%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the HstnB 6Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Jaelon Darden 6 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Zach Williams Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Darrion SherfieldSimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to DJ Dormeus for 11 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 33 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.7%
Ean Beek run for 2 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+8
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 8 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ben RatzlaffSimilar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-4
99.8%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Kd Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 25Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+5
99.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive offside (Davontae McCrae) to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+11
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 11 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
99.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jordan Rucker) to the NoTex 2Similar
Q3 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive holding (Cam Johnson) to the NoTex 1Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Blaise Bentsen run for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+24
99.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.6%
Austin Aune run for 3 yds to the HstnB 47Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+47
99.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 47 yds for a TD (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for a loss of 2 yards Jerreth Sterns fumbled, forced by Cam Johnson, recovered by HstnB Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 17
-5
99.9%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, false start (Ean Beek) to the HstnB 12Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 17
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to DJ DormeusSimilar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 17
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 17
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Blake Patterson punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to DeAndre Torrey, broken up by Tra FluellenSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 5
50
+10
99.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Kealon Jackson for 10 yds to the HstnB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.9%
HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, personal foul (Caleb Johnson) to the HstnB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Kd Davis run for no gain to the HstnB 25Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Austin Ogunmakin for 9 yds to the HstnB 16Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 16 yds for a TD (Zach Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
99.9%
Jaelon Woods run for 8 yds to the HstnB 11Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
Jaelon Woods run for 5 yds to the HstnB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jaylon Johnson for 7 yds to the HstnB 23Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to DJ DormeusSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 6 yds to the HstnB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 71 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Evan Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
99.9%
Kason Martin pass complete to Kealon Jackson for 8 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Evan Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Evan Johnson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Kason Martin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 36 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for no gain to the HstnB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
99.9%
Jaelon Woods run for 9 yds to the HstnB 32Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Jaelon Woods run for 3 yds to the HstnB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to - 1f for 14 yds to the HstnB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Jaelon Woods run for 4 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Tyson Thompson for 9 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 38 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26Uncategorized
13 plays · 59 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Evan Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.8%
Evan Johnson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 31Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.8%
Kason Martin pass complete to Kealon Jackson for 5 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
99.8%
Kason Martin pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 6 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
50
+14
99.8%
Kason Martin pass complete to Deion Hair-Griffin for 14 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.8%
Evan Johnson run for 3 yds to the HstnB 33Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+9
99.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 9 yds to the HstnB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the HstnB 18Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
99.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the HstnB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:23
Jason Bean run for 37 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+4
TD · Q2 9:39
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Alfaro for 7 yds for a TD, (Gino Garcia KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q2 14:35
Jason Bean pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 19 yds for a TD, (Zach Williams PAT MISSED)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com