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AF

Air Force 44 at New Mexico 22

UNM
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:19 · Tyson Dyer punt for 54 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior−37.6Home team on offense−4.1Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:42: Bobby Cole run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK) — UNM win probability +3.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:05: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 46 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +4.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:24: Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley PAT BLOCKED) — UNM win probability +10.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 5:24: AIR FORCE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — AF win probability +6.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:26: Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK) — AF win probability +8.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:37UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 1 at UNM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:19UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:24UNM 4th & 14 at AF 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q4 13:03UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 42, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 8:42UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:43AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:53AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:05AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:24UNM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:26AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:08AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:50AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:57UNM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:187% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
7.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+6
7.1%
Kentrail Moran run for 6 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
7.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+14
7.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
7.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jordan Kress for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
7.1%
Emmanuel Logan-Greene run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
7.1%
Kentrail Moran run for 9 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+4
7.1%
Kentrail Moran run for 4 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
7.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 6 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+9
7.1%
Kentrail Moran run for 9 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
7.1%
Kentrail Moran run for 3 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
7.1%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 4 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.6%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5990% → 89%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+25
10.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 25 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
10.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+11
10.1%
Timothy Jackson run for 11 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
10.0%
Taven Birdow run for 11 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
10.0%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
10.0%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
10.0%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
10.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
11.9%
Tevaka Tuioti run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 29 Tevaka Tuioti fumbled, recovered by NMex Tevaka TuiotiSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+3
11.8%
Kentrail Moran run for 3 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
11.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreeneSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
11.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:1188% → 89%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+31
12.3%
Taven Birdow run for 31 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
11.8%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
11.7%
Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+4
11.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
13.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
12.5%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 26 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
10.6%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 1:2311% → 11%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
11.4%
Bobby Cole run for 5 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+7
11.5%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
11.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Thomas VieiraSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
11.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
11.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+3
11.6%
Kentrail Moran run for 3 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
11.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Aaron MolinaSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
11.3%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Aaron Molina, broken up by Zane LewisSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
11.1%
Tyson Dyer punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FUMBLE
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:2288% → 88%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+41
12.3%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 41 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
11.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 6 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
11.2%
Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
11.3%
Christian Mallard run for 6 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
11.1%
Christian Mallard run for no gain to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+6
11.3%
Donald Hammond III run for 6 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
11.1%
Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+9
11.2%
Taven Birdow run for 9 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+4
11.3%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
11.1%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 10 yds to the NMex 4 AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (Geraud Sanders) to the NMex 14Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
12.2%
Taven Birdow run for 10 yds to the NMex 5 Taven Birdow fumbled, forced by Alex Hart, recovered by NMex Joey NobleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:2413% → 17%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
13.3%
Bobby Cole run for 8 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 2
OWN 13
0
13.5%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreeneSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
13.1%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
13.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
13.5%
Bobby Cole run for 6 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+48
13.5%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 48 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
15.7%
Chad Alexander run for 4 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
15.7%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-8
15.0%
Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Grant Donaldson for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+40
17.2%
Andrew Shelley 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.4%
Christian Mallard run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5582% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.4%
Kadin Remsberg run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
17.6%
Donald Hammond III pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
18.0%
Christian Mallard run for 4 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
17.4%
Donald Hammond III run for 8 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+6
17.1%
Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
16.9%
Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
16.9%
Taven Birdow run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 46 Taven Birdow fumbled, forced by Joey Noble, recovered by AFA Donald Hammond IIISimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+46
12.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 46 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:3512% → 19%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
12.2%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+8
12.2%
Bobby Cole run for 8 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
12.4%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 8 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
13.1%
Bobby Cole run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
50
+8
13.3%
Tevaka Tuioti run for 8 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
13.5%
Micah Gray run for 4 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
13.4%
Trae Hall run for 16 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
14.2%
Trae Hall run for 6 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
14.2%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+13
24.9%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
24.6%
Milton Bugg III return for defensive PATSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
18.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5883% → 93%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.8%
Donald Hammond III run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
16.6%
Taven Birdow run for 7 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
16.3%
Taven Birdow run for 8 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
15.4%
Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-5
15.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+59
7.2%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
9.2%
Trae Hall run for 7 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
9.9%
Cedric Patterson III run for 5 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
10.2%
Cedric Patterson III run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 14
OWN 40
0
9.1%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Aaron MolinaSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+8
8.9%
Trae Hall pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 8 yds Emmanuel Logan-Greene fumbled, forced by Christopher Herrera, recovered by AFASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:0493% → 99%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
6.7%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
6.7%
Taven Birdow run for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+17
5.0%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 17 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
4.5%
Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 27Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+27
1.1%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 27 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
1.8%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+5
1.9%
Trae Hall pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 5 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.9%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
1.8%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
1.8%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 5 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
1.9%
Tyson Dyer punt for 50 yds, downed at the AFA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 2:3799% → 100%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
1.0%
Ben Peterson run for 3 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
1.0%
Donald Hammond III run for 3 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+11
1.0%
Kadin Remsberg run for 11 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.9%
Christian Mallard run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+76
0.2%
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 76 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:460% → 1%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
0.2%
Chad Alexander run for 6 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+6
0.1%
Chad Alexander run for 6 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.2%
Chad Alexander run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
0.1%
Trae Hall run for 4 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+13
0.1%
Micah Gray run for 13 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
0.2%
Micah Gray run for 6 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
0.2%
Micah Gray run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
0.2%
Micah Gray run for 3 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
0.2%
Chad Alexander run for 7 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+27
0.9%
Trae Hall pass complete to Aaron Molina for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.5%
Mike Schmidt run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
0.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:24
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley PAT BLOCKED)
+10.7
TD · Q3 2:26
Donald Hammond III pass complete to Benjamin Waters for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q3 5:24
AIR FORCE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line
-6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com