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FSU

Florida State 14 at Arizona State 20

ASU
2019 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2019 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:03 · Michael Turk punt for 39 yds, downed at the FlaSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense+11.9Pregame prior+2.1Garbage-time factor+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Score differential+1.7Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:17: Ontaria Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +20.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:04: James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 91 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +26.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:02: Christian Zendejas 34 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +5.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 10:06: James Blackman pass intercepted for a TD Willie Harts return for 25 yds for a TD, (J. Daniels Run For Two-point Conversion) — ASU win probability +36.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:00: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 35 — ASU win probability +12.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 12FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:50ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27FSU 4th & 17 at ASU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43ASU 4th & 13 at ASU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:57ASU 4th & 19 at FSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:52FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:35FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:58ASU 4th & 7 at FSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:33ASU 4th & 6 at FSU 6, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:06FSU 4th & 8 at ASU 44, down 9
    Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:38ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 10, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−2.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:04FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 43, down 9
    Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:54FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:21ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 46, up 9
    Close callPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:37FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 21, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:03ASU 4th & 2 at FSU 48, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:20FSU 4th & 3 at ASU 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−3.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−3.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:17ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 49, up 2
    Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:02ASU 4th & 13 at FSU 16, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−5.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−15.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:14FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.3%−4.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:39FSU 4th & 2 at ASU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−4.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−8.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:34ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 45, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−1.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:45ASU 4th & 5 at FSU 38, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.7
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 3:17FSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 1:04FSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:06ASU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    70.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
55.9%
A.J. Carter run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 13 A.J. Carter fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Amari GainerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:0244% → 44%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
55.8%
Tamorrion Terry run for no gain to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+10
55.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 10 yds to the ArzSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
55.8%
Deonte Sheffield run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+29
55.7%
James Blackman pass intercepted Aashari Crosswell return for 29 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3556% → 56%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
56.0%
Kyle Williams run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+3
56.0%
Kyle Williams run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+2
56.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 11:50
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
56.0%
Michael Turk punt for 41 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:0344% → 44%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
56.1%
Deonte Sheffield run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-8
56.1%
James Blackman sacked by Merlin Robertson and Jermayne Lole for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+27
56.3%
James Blackman run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Khaylan Kearse-Thomas) to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
55.7%
Deonte Sheffield run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
55.6%
Jordan Travis run for 29 yds to the ArzSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
55.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
55.4%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 12
OPP 14
-5
55.6%
Deonte Sheffield run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
56.4%
Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chase Lucas Khaylan Kearse-Thomas return for 12 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1756% → 56%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
56.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
56.8%
Kyle Williams run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-9
56.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Cory Durden and Amari Gainer for a loss of 9 yards to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 13
OWN 31
+9
55.7%
Michael Turk punt for 59 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 9 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:2344% → 43%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
56.2%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
56.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-6
56.6%
James Blackman sacked by Merlin Robertson for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 13 James Blackman fumbled, forced by Merlin Robertson, recovered by ArzSt Merlin Robertson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7FG
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:5758% → 57%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
57.6%
Williams, Kyle rush for 3 yards to the FLORIDAST10, PENALTY ARIZONAST holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 20
OPP 23
-5
57.6%
Daniels, Jayden pass complete to Porter, Geordon for 23 yards to the FLORIDAST0, PENALTY ARIZONAST ineligible downfield on pass (Losoya, Alex) 5 yards to the FLORIDAST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 25
OPP 28
-1
57.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 26
OPP 29
+7
57.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 19
OPP 22
0
56.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for no gain to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 19
OPP 22
+40
57.1%
Christian Zendejas 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3842% → 42%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
58.0%
Ontaria Wilson run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
57.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-10
57.5%
Travis, Jordan rush for 27 yards to the ARIZONAST35, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Rice, Emmett) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+10
58.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 10 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
57.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
58.5%
Tommy Martin punt for 57 yds, downed at the ArzSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9FUMBLE
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:0958% → 60%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
57.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+1
57.5%
Ricky Pearsall run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+8
57.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Nolan Matthews for 8 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+26
57.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Case Hatch for 26 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
58.9%
A.J. Carter run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
59.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
59.5%
A.J. Carter run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33 A.J. Carter fumbled, forced by Raymond Woodie III, recovered by FlaSt Janarius RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2542% → 41%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
58.1%
Tamorrion Terry run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
56.9%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-4
57.1%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+5
58.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
57.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
58.7%
Tommy Martin punt for 42 yds, downed at the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FG
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:2258% → 65%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
58.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
58.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+77
57.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyle Williams for 77 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
61.1%
Demetrious Flowers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
61.4%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Gant, Brendan) 5 yards to the FLORIDAST4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST.Similar
Q2 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
61.5%
A.J. Carter run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
61.7%
Kyle Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q2 7:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+26
65.1%
Christian Zendejas 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2537% → 37%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.3%
Deonte Sheffield run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 1:4268% → 69%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
50
+31
67.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 31 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
68.1%
Kyle Williams run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+4
68.2%
Kyle Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
68.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Geordon Porter for 3 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
68.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to A.J. CarterSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
67.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
68.9%
Christian Zendejas 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:5431% → 30%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.2%
Jordan Young run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
68.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
68.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+9
67.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Jordan Young for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
67.5%
Blackman, James pass complete to Young, Jordan for 8 yards to the ARIZONAST38, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul 15 yards to the FLORIDAST39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+10
69.3%
James Blackman run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+1
69.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Deonte Sheffield for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 14
50
+6
70.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 6 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
70.2%
Tommy Martin punt for 38 yds, downed at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2371% → 71%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
70.6%
Demetrious Flowers run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
72.0%
Demetrious Flowers run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
71.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 6
OWN 10
+9
70.9%
Michael Turk punt for 64 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 9 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:2627% → 28%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
72.7%
James Blackman sacked by Roe Wilkins for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
72.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Adarius DentSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+12
73.4%
Deonte Sheffield run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+3
72.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 39 yds , Jack Jones returns for 3 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
72.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:0029% → 27%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.9%
Deonte Sheffield run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
71.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 15 yds Tamorrion Terry fumbled, forced by Willie Harts, recovered by FlaSt Tamorrion Terry for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
69.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+2
70.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
71.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Adarius DentSimilar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
72.7%
Tommy Martin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jack Jones at the ArzSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:0973% → 74%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
72.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Geordon Porter for 5 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
75.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+2
76.0%
Demetrious Flowers run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
76.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
75.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
74.0%
Michael Turk punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Raymond Woodie III at the FlaSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2526% → 24%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
73.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+7
73.9%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
73.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+1
73.3%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-4
74.7%
Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
76.4%
Tommy Martin punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0578% → 77%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
78.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
78.9%
Demetrious Flowers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
78.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
77.1%
Michael Turk punt for 39 yds, downed at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:2823% → 46%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
77.5%
Deonte Sheffield run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
77.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 16 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
76.1%
Deonte Sheffield run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+8
75.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 8 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
75.6%
Deonte Sheffield run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
76.2%
Deonte Sheffield run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
76.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Adarius DentSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+16
78.1%
Jordan Travis run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
75.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to James Blackman for 2 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+18
75.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Jordan Travis for 18 yds to the ArzSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.3%
Ontaria Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4362% → 63%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
61.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 19 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
65.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
63.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Robert Cooper) to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
65.6%
Demetrious Flowers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-2
66.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Leonard Warner III for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
63.0%
Michael Turk punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Raymond Woodie III at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
36.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 91 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 3:5940% → 47%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
39.3%
Demetrious Flowers run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
40.6%
Demetrious Flowers run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
38.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Demetrious FlowersSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
38.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+15
37.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 15 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
41.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
40.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+27
38.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 27 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
45.2%
Long, Ethan pass incomplete to Matthews, Nolan, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Becker III, Carlos) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONAST.Similar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
45.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
45.0%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-3
42.2%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Robert Cooper for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+34
47.3%
Christian Zendejas 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26INT TD
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3757% → 19%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
43.4%
Deonte Sheffield run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
42.6%
Deonte Sheffield run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
41.8%
Deonte Sheffield run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+25
81.1%
James Blackman pass intercepted for a TD Willie Harts return for 25 yds for a TD, (J. Daniels Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:1120% → 21%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.8%
Deonte Sheffield run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
78.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
79.9%
Deonte Sheffield run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
80.5%
Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
79.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+11
76.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
76.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-1
76.4%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+5
77.7%
Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-4
79.3%
Deonte Sheffield run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3190% → 90%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
89.5%
Demetrious Flowers run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
89.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Tommy Hudson for 8 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-2
89.9%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 45 Jayden Daniels fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Demetrious FlowersSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
89.6%
Michael Turk punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:2916% → 18%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
84.3%
Deonte Sheffield run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+13
83.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 13 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
82.2%
James Blackman pass intercepted Khaylan Kearse-Thomas return for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4092% → 94%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
92.1%
Demetrious Flowers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
93.8%
Demetrious Flowers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
94.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 38
0
93.6%
Michael Turk punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 31FUMBLE
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:4212% → 16%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
87.6%
Jordan Travis run for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 22 Jordan Travis fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Jordan Travis Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-11
88.7%
James Blackman sacked by Jermayne Lole for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+49
89.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 49 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
83.7%
Tamorrion Terry run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 36 Tamorrion Terry fumbled, forced by Merlin Robertson, recovered by ArzSt Tyler JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:5996% → 96%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 11
OWN 35
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:06
James Blackman pass intercepted for a TD Willie Harts return for 25 yds for a TD, (J. Daniels Run For Two-point Conversion)
+36.5
TD · Q3 1:04
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 91 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-26.7
TD · Q3 3:17
Ontaria Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com