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CAL

California 35 at Illinois 20

ILL
2019 · Redbox Bowl · Dec 30, 2019 · Levi's Stadium
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:29 · Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds, downed at the ILLINOIS 16 ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Block (Jartavius Martin) to the Illin 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 179Home team on offense−48.7Pregame prior−0.1Score differential−21.4Garbage-time factor−10.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−15.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−12.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:12: Chase Garbers run for 1 yd for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +4.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:25: Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +9.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:01: James McCourt 30 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +3.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:45: Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 2 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK) — CAL win probability +9.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:01: Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +4.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:20ILL 4th & 6 at CAL 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:55ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:02CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:20ILL 4th & 8 at CAL 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:25CAL 4th & 3 at ILL 3, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    62.8%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:52ILL 4th & 16 at ILL 14, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:49ILL 4th & 15 at CAL 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:34CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 21, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:42ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 44, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:52CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 23, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:05CAL 4th & 11 at CAL 19, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:40ILL 4th & 17 at ILL 44, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:29CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 41, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 7:09CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:10ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:12CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:25CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:45CAL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:06CAL Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:01ILL Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:4465% → 64%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
35.3%
Chase Garbers sacked by Milo Eifler for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 19Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
35.4%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+25
35.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 25 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
35.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for no gain to the Cal 44Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
35.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-12
35.9%
Chase Garbers sacked by Oluwole Betiku Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the Cal 35 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 19
OWN 35
0
36.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 36 yds, downed at the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1736% → 38%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
36.1%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+30
36.1%
Brandon Peters run for 30 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
36.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 12 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
36.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
37.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the Cal 25 fumbled, recovered by ILL Richie Petitbon for 14 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
37.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Cal 10Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+3
37.1%
Reggie Corbin run for 3 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
37.5%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
37.6%
James McCourt 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:5362% → 64%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
37.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
37.7%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+4
38.3%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+54
38.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 54 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
37.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+1
38.0%
DeShawn Collins run for 1 yd to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+15
38.3%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Crawford, Kekoa, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference 15 yards to the ILLINOIS4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q1 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
35.8%
Collin Moore 4 Yd pass from Chase Garbers (Greg Thomas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4737% → 44%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.8%
Brandon Peters run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
37.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Dre Brown for 6 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
37.2%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
37.3%
Dre Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+14
37.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 14 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
38.6%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
38.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+7
38.7%
Reggie Corbin run for 7 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
39.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
39.8%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+7
39.2%
Brandon Peters run for 7 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
40.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+12
40.1%
Dre Brown run for 12 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.3%
Dre Brown run for no gain to the Cal 5Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 2:5158% → 64%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
42.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+13
42.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
42.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+10
41.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 10 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
41.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
41.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 38 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.2%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:1139% → 38%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
38.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+19
38.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 19 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
40.3%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
39.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
38.9%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
38.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4562% → 61%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
38.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+11
38.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 11 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
38.3%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+6
38.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+1
39.0%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
39.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 49 yds, downed at the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:2738% → 39%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
38.1%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 5 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
38.3%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+9
37.7%
Dre Brown run for 9 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
39.0%
Dre Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
40.6%
Dre Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
39.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
41.2%
Reggie Corbin run for 2 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
41.3%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
40.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
39.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds, downed at the Cal 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
15 plays · 97 yds · 4:4962% → 75%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
38.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
38.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Cal 3Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+25
39.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 25 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
37.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 18 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
36.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 26 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
34.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
33.9%
DeShawn Collins run for 2 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+16
34.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 16 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
33.2%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Clark, Trevon, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Brown, Sydney) 3 yards to the ILLINOIS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
34.9%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10END OF HALF
6 plays · 58 yds · 0:1926% → 33%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
26.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 10 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
26.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 40 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
29.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 8 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+30
33.0%
James McCourt 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5530% → 27%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
29.7%
Reggie Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 19Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
29.4%
Reggie Corbin run for 4 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-9
28.4%
Brandon Peters sacked by Zeandae Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 14 Brandon Peters fumbled, recovered by IllinSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+8
27.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 50 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 8 yds to the Cal 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 1:5974% → 85%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
26.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
26.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 10 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
25.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
24.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 13 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
24.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+22
23.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 22 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
23.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nate Hobbs) to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
14.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 2 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:4118% → 17%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
17.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+3
17.4%
Dre Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+13
17.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Trenard Davis for 13 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
17.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 29 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.6%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
19.3%
Reggie Corbin run for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
18.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 10
OPP 34
-5
17.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
16.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jaylinn Hawkins at the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4386% → 86%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
14.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+2
13.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
14.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
14.1%
Steven Coutts punt for 50 yds, downed at the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:4115% → 14%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
15.4%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
15.2%
Ra'Von Bonner run for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+8
14.6%
Brandon Peters run for 8 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
15.4%
Dre Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
15.0%
Dre Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 3
50
-6
15.0%
Dre Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+11
13.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 55 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 11 yds to the Cal 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 5:3089% → 99%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
11.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 18 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
10.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to DeShawn Collins for 7 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
8.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 2 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+1
8.0%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
7.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
8.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 14 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
7.4%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY ILLINOIS pass interference (Brown, Sydney) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
6.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to DeShawn Collins for 4 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
6.6%
Chase Garbers run for 2 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+14
6.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 3 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Milo Eifler) to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
6.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Gavin ReinwaldSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
5.5%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
1.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 6 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:022% → 7%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+22
2.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Justice Williams for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
50
+6
2.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro for 6 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+7
2.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 7 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
2.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Carlos SandySimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+30
2.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Trenard Davis for 30 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
2.5%
Reggie Corbin run for 1 yd to the Cal 6Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
7.3%
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5395% → 95%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
5.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
4.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
4.9%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+3
4.8%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds , Nate Hobbs returns for 3 yds to the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19INT
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:176% → 6%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
6.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Dre Brown for 11 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Evan Weaver) to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
6.4%
Brandon Peters pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for no gain to the Cal 20 Jaylinn Hawkins return for 12 yds to the Cal 25 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Block (Aaron Maldonado) to the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:1596% → 97%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
4.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
4.4%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-3
4.0%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+3
3.2%
Steven Coutts punt for 50 yds , Donny Navarro returns for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21Uncategorized
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:103% → 2%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
3.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 4 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+13
3.2%
Brandon Peters run for 13 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-12
3.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 3 yds to the Illin 46 ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Barker) to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 22
OWN 39
-3
3.1%
Brandon Peters sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 25
OWN 36
+8
2.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 8 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
2.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Carlos SandySimilar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 17
OWN 44
+16
2.4%
Brandon Peters run for 16 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
1.5%
Alex Netherda run for 7 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
1.4%
Alex Netherda run for 1 yd to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-7
1.4%
Chase Garbers run for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+51
1.0%
Steven Coutts punt for 43 yds, downed at the ILLINOIS 16 ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Block (Jartavius Martin) to the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23Uncategorized
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:041% → 1%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
0.8%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+12
0.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Griffin Palmer for 12 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:25
Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brown Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q3 10:45
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 2 yds for a TD (Greg Thomas KICK)
-9
TD · Q4 8:01
Reggie Corbin run for 6 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com