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USC

USC 24 at Iowa 49

IOWA
2019 · San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl · Dec 27, 2019 · Qualcomm Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:44 · Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 41 yds, downed at the IOWA 22 USC Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (11 Yards) to the USC 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense+16.5Score differential+3.5Garbage-time factor+8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Blowout margin−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:03: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 16 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +11.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:48: Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 63 yds , Ihmir Smith-Marsette return for 98 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +14.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:18: Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 12 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:29: Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +14.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 3:54: Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +11.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 0:55IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.5%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 4:25USC 4th & 10 at USC 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  3. Q3 11:13USC 4th & 17 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  4. Q3 1:20IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 0:15USC 4th & 9 at USC 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  6. Q4 14:44IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:19USC 4th & 9 at USC 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:11IOWA 4th & 24 at IOWA 12, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:12USC 4th & 19 at IOWA 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:52IOWA 4th & 5 at midfield, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:25IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:37USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:22IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:03USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:18IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:29USC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:54IOWA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:52IOWA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:43IOWA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:0052% → 56%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.7%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
51.8%
Nate Stanley run for 2 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
51.8%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 10 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
52.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
52.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 7 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
52.7%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
52.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-8
53.2%
Nate Stanley sacked by Talanoa Hufanga for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 47 Nate Stanley fumbled, recovered by IowaSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 19
OWN 47
+30
52.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 30 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
55.9%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 23 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2845% → 48%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
55.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+30
55.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 30 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
54.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+10
54.5%
IOWA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Michael Ojemudia) to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
54.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the Iowa 14Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
54.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Iowa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
54.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 12Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
55.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the Iowa 4Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+4
51.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 4 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 7:5853% → 63%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
53.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 8 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+2
53.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
54.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
54.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
54.4%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
54.0%
Nate Stanley run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
50
+3
55.2%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 3 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 47
-2
54.5%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+19
54.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 19 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.1%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
56.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 14 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
56.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
56.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+6
56.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
62.6%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 6 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:4740% → 52%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
60.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
60.0%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
60.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 4 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
60.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
61.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 15 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
59.7%
Kedon Slovis sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 44Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+16
62.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 16 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+12
60.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 12 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
59.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+4
59.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
48.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 16 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5136% → 34%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.8%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 24Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
64.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the USC 25Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
65.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
66.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Geno Stone at the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:3367% → 77%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
67.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 6 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-5
67.8%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Nate Wieting) to the Iowa 49Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-5
67.4%
IOWA Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+24
66.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 24 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
67.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 9 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+1
68.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+10
67.6%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 10 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
76.7%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 12 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8END OF HALF
15 plays · 61 yds · 1:1426% → 28%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
75.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 15 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 6 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
75.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
50
+11
74.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
74.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 25 yds to the Iowa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
73.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
73.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+32
72.3%
Chase McGrath 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1127% → 45%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.2%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
72.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+58
70.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 55 yds to the IOWA 5 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Roughing Passer (3 Yards) to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.2%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5743% → 38%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
57.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 11 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
56.7%
Kedon Slovis sacked by A.J. Epenesa for 0 yards to the Iowa 43 Kedon Slovis fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by USCSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
56.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the Iowa 42Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-8
58.1%
Matt Fink sacked by Nick Niemann for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 17
50
+2
61.9%
Ben Griffiths punt for 42 yds , Max Cooper returns for 2 yds to the Iowa 10 Max Cooper fumbled, recovered by Iowa Max CooperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11TD
14 plays · 90 yds · 6:3964% → 82%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
64.1%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 5 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
64.1%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+8
62.9%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 8 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
64.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-1
64.6%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+13
63.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 13 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
65.9%
Toren Young run for 7 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
68.1%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
68.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 34 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
70.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+8
70.4%
Nate Stanley run for 8 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
70.7%
Nate Stanley run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
70.7%
Nate Stanley run for no gain to the USC 1Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:1118% → 21%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
80.3%
Stephen Carr run for 13 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
80.2%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 5
50
+7
79.4%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 7 yds Michael Pittman Jr. fumbled, recovered by Iowa Geno StoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4085% → 83%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
84.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 46Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
84.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Toren YoungSimilar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
83.8%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
83.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0117% → 15%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.1%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
83.7%
Matt Fink pass complete to Stephen Carr for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
84.6%
Matt Fink pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 9
OWN 16
-3
85.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 49 yds , Max Cooper returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:1686% → 85%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
85.5%
Toren Young run for 5 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
86.0%
Nate Stanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
85.3%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+52
84.8%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 41 yds, downed at the IOWA 22 USC Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (11 Yards) to the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:4216% → 15%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
84.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
84.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 20
-14
84.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the USC 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by IowaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2487% → 96%
Q4 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.0%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Sam LaPorta for no gain to the USC 6Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.2%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.3%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:105% → 4%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.6%
Matt Fink pass complete to Kenan Christon for 13 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
94.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Tyler Vaughns) to the USC 33Similar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+6
95.2%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
95.1%
Matt Fink pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-5
95.2%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 39Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
95.3%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
95.7%
Ben Griffiths punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Max Cooper at the Iowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:3497% → 96%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
96.7%
Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-1
96.6%
Nate Stanley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-14
96.7%
Nate Stanley sacked by Greg Johnson for a loss of 14 yards to the Iowa 12Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 24
OWN 12
0
96.0%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 31 yds, downed at the Iowa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:514% → 3%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.6%
Matt Fink pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
95.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+22
96.0%
Matt Fink pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 22 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
95.1%
Matt Fink pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 11 yds to the Iowa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
95.6%
Matt Fink pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 13Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
95.8%
Matt Fink pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 11
OPP 13
-8
97.0%
Matt Fink sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 19
OPP 21
+39
97.3%
Chase McGrath 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4098% → 99%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
98.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+17
98.4%
Nate Stanley pass complete to Nate Wieting for 17 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.6%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+6
98.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 5
50
0
98.6%
Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 5
50
0
98.7%
Michael Sleep-Dalton punt for 37 yds, downed at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+25
99.4%
Matt Fink pass intercepted for a TD Nick Niemann return for 25 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23Uncategorized
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Matt Fink pass complete to Kenan Christon for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.4%
Matt Fink pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
99.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:48
Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 63 yds , Ihmir Smith-Marsette return for 98 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q3 13:29
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase McGrath KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q3 3:54
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com