2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:56 · Terrick Smalls Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:45: Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 64 yds , Devron Harper return for 99 yds for a TD, (Josh Walston KICK) — GWEB win probability +1.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:50: Jayln Cagle run for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Walston KICK) — GWEB win probability +3.3 pts (now 6%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:40: Benny LeMay run for 65 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:30: Jayln Cagle run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin McKay KICK) — GWEB win probability +4.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:26: Chris Reynolds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +2.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GWEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q1 12:36GWEB 4th & 14 at GWEB 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q1 7:45GWEB 4th & 9 at GWEB 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.6%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q1 1:22CLT 4th & 1 at GWEB 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.8%59% to convertField goal93.6%−0.294% to makePunt93.1%−0.7average punt
- Q2 15:00GWEB 4th & 2 at GWEB 19, down 7Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:44GWEB 4th & 10 at GWEB 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q2 1:38GWEB 4th & 4 at CLT 41, down 21Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.6%48% to convertField goal2.3%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call2.3%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:33GWEB 4th & 9 at CLT 23, down 21Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%−0.230% to convertField goal1.9%70% to makePunt0.7%−1.2average punt
- Q3 2:28GWEB 4th & 14 at GWEB 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q4 14:15GWEB 4th & 12 at GWEB 40, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:53CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 39, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 10:40GWEB 4th & 4 at GWEB 10, down 28Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:56CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 49, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GWEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 1:22CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:59CLT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:45GWEB Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.8%97% to makeGo for two6.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:00CLT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:50GWEB Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.5%97% to makeGo for two4.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:40CLT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:30GWEB Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.9%97% to makeGo for two4.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:26CLT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:15CLT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:19GWEB Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 0
0
97.4%
BOWLER, Connor punt 44 yards to the GWU15, out-of-bounds, PENALTY GWU roughing the kicker off-setting, PENALTY CLT holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 12:36
4TH & 14
OWN 14
+42
97.1%
Jack Pawloski punt for 42 yds , Nafees Lyon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3INT8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+2
96.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Benny LeMay for 2 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+9
96.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 9 yds to the GrdWb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 18
OWN 47
+9
96.9%
Brett Kean pass intercepted Devin Mines return for 9 yds to the CHARLOTTE 44 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
96.0%
PENALTY GWU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY CLT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
96.1%
Jordan Smith pass incomplete to A.J. Alexander, broken up by Marquavis GibbsSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-1
96.1%
Jordan Smith sacked by Tommy Doctor and Alex Highsmith for a loss of 1 yard to the GrdWb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5TD13 plays · 80 yds · 4:5996% → 96%
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
95.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Noah Henderson for 10 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
96.0%
MCALLISTER, A. rush for 6 yards to the 50 yardline (BUCKNER, M.), PENALTY GWU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the CLT49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
96.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Noah Henderson for 6 yds to the GrdWb 27Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+19
96.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 19 yds to the GrdWb 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:224% → 4%
Q1 1:22
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
95.7%
Jordan Smith pass complete to Jayln Cagle for no gain to the GrdWb 13Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 19
+59
95.6%
Jack Pawloski punt for 49 yds , Nafees Lyon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 18 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Charl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7TD13 plays · 79 yds · 5:4696% → 96%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Noah Henderson for no gain to the Charl 31Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+13
95.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Noah Henderson for 13 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+11
95.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 11 yds to the GrdWb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
95.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 12 yds to the GrdWb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+15
95.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 6 yds to the GrdWb 18 for a 1ST down GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Cade Hamilton) to the GrdWb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9TD8 plays · 41 yds · 2:4595% → 96%
Q2 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+9
94.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 9 yds to the GrdWb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
94.7%
GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, Defensive offside (Devin Mines) to the GrdWb 3Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
95.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Aaron McAllister for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 10PUNT TD8 plays · 15 yds · 2:164% → 2%
GWEBDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:062% → 3%
Q2 3:44
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
97.7%
Jordan Smith pass complete to James Ellis II for 7 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-1
97.6%
Jordan Smith sacked by Markees Watts for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
97.5%
Jack Pawloski punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Nafees Lyon at the Charl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
98.5%
Brett Kean pass intercepted Quinton Jones return for 13 yds to the Charl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 13TD2 plays · 5 yds · 0:303% → 6%
CLTDrive 14TD2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 16FUMBLE7 plays · 58 yds · 0:002% → 2%
CLTDrive 17INT8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 7 yds to the Charl 24Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
98.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 9 yds to the Charl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+23
98.5%
Chris Reynolds pass intercepted Devin Mines return for 23 yds to the Charl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 18TD8 plays · 38 yds · 3:032% → 7%
Q3 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-4
98.1%
Jordan Smith sacked by Alex Highsmith for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 23Similar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+10
98.2%
Jordan Smith pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 10 yds to the Charl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+9
97.9%
Jordan Smith pass complete to Chuma Awanna for 9 yds to the Charl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19TD6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0496% → 98%
GWEBDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:582% → 1%
CLTDrive 21TD8 plays · 79 yds · 3:0099% → 100%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
98.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 8 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
99.0%
FINGER, Ishod rush for 1 yard to the CLT42 (REYNOLDS, D.), PENALTY GWU offside (CLARK, K.) 5 yards to the CLT46, 1ST DOWN CLT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 31 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Jordan Smith pass complete to Chuma Awanna for 6 yds to the GrdWb 36Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 7
OWN 45
-5
99.9%
GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, false start (Ga'Marcus Freeman) to the GrdWb 40Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Jack Pawloski punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Charl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:53
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Cameron Dollar, broken up by Robert McKoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 25DOWNS6 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 26TD4 plays · 50 yds · 1:050% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 27END OF GAME7 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:30
Jayln Cagle run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin McKay KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q2 0:40
Benny LeMay run for 65 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q2 0:50
Jayln Cagle run for 5 yds for a TD, (Josh Walston KICK)
-3.3