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USM

Southern Miss 13 at Tulane 30

TULN
2019 · Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Jan 4, 2020 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:39 · Matt Bromell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Home team on offense+24.4Pregame prior+2.4Score differential+9.2Garbage-time factor+6.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:23: Jack Abraham 3 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick) — USM win probability +4.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:20: Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 52 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +15.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:16: Merek Glover 36 Yd Field Goal — TULN win probability +3.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:37: Jacob Robertson Jr. 7 Yd pass from Justin McMillan (Merek Glover Kick) — TULN win probability +11.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:54: Amare Jones 20 Yd pass from Justin McMillan (Merek Glover Kick) — TULN win probability +9.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 10:54TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:14TULN 4th & 20 at TULN 16, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:28USM 4th & 13 at USM 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:41TULN 4th & 11 at USM 14, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:44USM 4th & 2 at USM 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:29TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:49USM 4th & 1 at USM 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:37TULN 4th & 5 at USM 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04USM 4th & 6 at USM 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:22TULN 4th & 3 at USM 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−1.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:27USM 4th & 5 at USM 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:36USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:16TULN 4th & 9 at USM 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−9.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:34USM 4th & 11 at TULN 34, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:52USM 4th & 16 at USM 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:54TULN 4th & 8 at USM 40, up 17
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:39USM 4th & 2 at USM 28, down 17
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:15TULN 4th & 6 at TULN 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:45USM 4th & 16 at TULN 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:04TULN 4th & 17 at USM 41, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:07USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:23USM Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:20TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:37TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:54TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:4336% → 37%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
63.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
63.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
63.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 5 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
63.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
63.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 8 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
63.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-10
63.6%
Harris, De'Michael rush for 9 yards to the TULANE28, PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Clopton, Trace) 10 yards to the TULANE47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+3
63.6%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q1 12:07
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+44
63.2%
Quez Watkins 44 Yd pass from Jack Abraham (Andrew Stein PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0663% → 63%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
63.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 1 yd to the Tulan 21Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
63.1%
Amare Jones run for 4 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
62.8%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
62.6%
Ryan Wright punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:2737% → 44%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
62.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 9 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+8
62.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 8 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
62.4%
Anderson, Steven rush for 11 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Dorbeck, Drake) 10 yards to the SOUMISS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 20
OWN 29
0
62.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Kevin PerkinsSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+18
62.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 18 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+8
61.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 8 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
61.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 15
50
+8
61.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 8 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+28
61.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 28 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
60.7%
Kevin Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 15Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+4
60.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Ray Ladner for 4 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+8
60.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 8 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
56.1%
Jack Abraham 3 Yd Run (Andrew Stein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:4658% → 55%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
57.9%
Dauphine, Corey rush for loss of 1 yard to the TULANE25, PENALTY TULANE holding 10 yards to the TULANE16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 20
OWN 16
0
57.6%
Justin McMillan run for no gain to the Tulan 16Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 20
OWN 16
+5
57.3%
Corey Dauphine run for 5 yds to the Tulan 21Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 15
OWN 21
-5
55.4%
Justin McMillan sacked by Jacques Turner and Swayze Bozeman for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 16Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 20
OWN 16
0
54.9%
Ryan Wright punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3245% → 46%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
54.6%
Dee Baker run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
54.4%
Dee Baker run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-9
53.3%
Jack Abraham sacked by TEAM for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
54.0%
Matt Bromell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:3454% → 54%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
54.2%
Darius Bradwell run for 7 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
54.5%
Darius Bradwell run for 5 yds to the Tulan 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
54.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 18 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
54.9%
Darius Bradwell run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
54.8%
Justin McMillan run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+18
54.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 4 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malik Shorts) to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
55.2%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
54.7%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-6
53.0%
Justin McMillan run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
53.5%
Merek Glover 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5146% → 47%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
54.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
53.7%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
53.4%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
52.1%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+7
52.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 7 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
52.6%
Matt Bromell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0952% → 50%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
52.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 4 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
52.1%
Amare Jones run for 1 yd to the Tulan 23Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
50.8%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+10
50.3%
Ryan Wright punt for 48 yds , Quez Watkins returns for 10 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3149% → 51%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
51.2%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
51.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 9 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
50.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for no gain to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
48.6%
Jack Abraham run for no gain to the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0851% → 53%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
51.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
52.7%
Darius Bradwell run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
52.5%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+13
50.8%
Amare Jones run for 13 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
52.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+5
51.9%
Cameron Carroll run for 5 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+1
50.3%
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
53.1%
Merek Glover 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2650% → 50%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
50.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 14
OWN 13
0
50.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+8
51.1%
Jack Abraham run for 8 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+17
50.0%
Matt Bromell punt for 45 yds , Amare Jones returns for 17 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3854% → 51%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
53.5%
Justin McMillan sacked by Ethan Edmondson and Von'Darius Freeman for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+2
51.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 11
50
+8
49.9%
Justin McMillan run for 8 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+2
50.8%
Justin McMillan run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3857% → 56%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
42.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
43.1%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
44.1%
Matt Bromell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
46.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3046% → 64%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
46.2%
Darius Bradwell run for 1 yd to the Tulan 24Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+9
45.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 9 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
46.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 6 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+9
48.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 9 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
64.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 52 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3943% → 42%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.5%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
57.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
57.9%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+12
59.4%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 12 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
58.5%
Matt Bromell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:1461% → 67%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
60.5%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Will WallaceSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
60.4%
Stephon Huderson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+28
58.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 28 yds Amare Jones fumbled, recovered by TulanSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
64.3%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Will Wallace) to the Tulan 47Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+18
62.1%
Justin McMillan run for 18 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
65.4%
Cameron Carroll run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
65.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 15 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
65.5%
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
65.5%
Stephon Huderson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-5
64.1%
Justin McMillan sacked by Santrell Latham and D.Q. Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 6:16
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
67.4%
Merek Glover 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2335% → 33%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
65.0%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 10
OWN 5
-26
67.2%
Tate Whatley pass intercepted by Larry Brooks for 29 yds to the USM 5. SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0571% → 83%
Q3 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
71.1%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Jaetavian Toles) to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.9%
Jacob Robertson Jr. 7 Yd pass from Justin McMillan (Merek Glover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:5020% → 19%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
80.2%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+17
81.1%
Tate Whatley run for 17 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
78.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds to the TULANE 48 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Roughing Passer (Will Harper) to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
77.3%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 34Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
77.4%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
79.5%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Neil McLaurinSimilar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
81.5%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:2683% → 94%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+35
82.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 35 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
84.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 8 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+3
84.4%
Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
94.1%
Amare Jones 20 Yd pass from Justin McMillan (Merek Glover Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:027% → 6%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
92.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-10
93.1%
Whatley, Tate pass complete to Mitchell, Jordan for 4 yards to the SOUMISS25, PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Clopton, Trace) 10 yards to the SOUMISS11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 25
OWN 11
-9
93.6%
Tate Whatley sacked by Patrick Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 2Similar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 34
OWN 2
+18
94.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 18 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 16
OWN 20
0
94.2%
Matt Bromell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:5195% → 96%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
94.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 21 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
95.2%
Corey Dauphine run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-10
95.7%
Dauphine, Corey rush for 14 yards to the SOUMISS27, PENALTY TULANE holding (Dublin, Corey) 10 yards to the TULANE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+6
95.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Corey Dauphine for 6 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+5
95.7%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
95.6%
Ryan Wright punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:035% → 4%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
95.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
95.3%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
95.5%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
96.0%
Matt Bromell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1596% → 97%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.1%
Darius Bradwell run for no gain to the Tulan 35Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
96.1%
Justin McMillan run for 6 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
96.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 3 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
96.7%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 39Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+12
96.7%
Ryan Wright punt for 55 yds , Quez Watkins returns for 12 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:154% → 4%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+42
96.1%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 42 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.8%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-6
95.8%
Tate Whatley sacked by Jeffery Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 46Similar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
96.4%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
96.5%
Matt Bromell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the Tulan 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 27PUNT
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:3697% → 99%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+22
97.0%
Cameron Carroll run for 22 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
97.6%
Stephon Huderson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
97.7%
Stephon Huderson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+15
98.0%
Justin McMillan run for 15 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
98.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+7
98.4%
Ygenio Booker run for 7 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
98.4%
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-2
98.7%
Ygenio Booker run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-6
98.9%
Justin McMillan run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
98.8%
Ryan Wright punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28INT
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.3%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+33
99.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 33 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
99.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 9 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
98.8%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+11
98.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 11 yds to the Tulan 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
99.0%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 12 yds to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.0%
Tate Whatley pass intercepted, touchback. Chase Kuerschen return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 29Uncategorized
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2599% → 99%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.1%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-3
99.1%
Justin McMillan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:20
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 52 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q3 5:37
Jacob Robertson Jr. 7 Yd pass from Justin McMillan (Merek Glover Kick)
+11.7
TD · Q3 1:54
Amare Jones 20 Yd pass from Justin McMillan (Merek Glover Kick)
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com