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ORE

Oregon 28 at Wisconsin 27

WIS
2019 · Rose Bowl Game · Jan 1, 2020 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFUMBLETDFGTDEnd of GameTD+18.9WIS 64.1%Mason Stokke run for 2 yds for a TD(Collin Larsh KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 24 · Q3 4:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:53 · Mason Stokke run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense+5.6Pregame prior+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.5Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:16: Justin Herbert run for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +10.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +13.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 11:57: Anthony Lotti run for a loss of 10 yards Anthony Lotti fumbled, recovered by Oregn Brady Breeze , return for 31 yds (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +15.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:53: Mason Stokke run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +18.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:41: Justin Herbert run for 30 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +49.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 8:05WIS 4th & 9 at ORE 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:41ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:57WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 30, up 3
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:58ORE 4th & 24 at ORE 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:47WIS 4th & 1 at ORE 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:52WIS 4th & 10 at ORE 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:25ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:41ORE 4th & 1 at WIS 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−2.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:57WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 41, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:34WIS 4th & 1 at ORE 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−6.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:53WIS 4th & 1 at ORE 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.2%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−4.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−16.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:02ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:18WIS 4th & 1 at ORE 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−3.8
    77% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−15.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:09WIS 4th & 4 at ORE 9, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.5%−0.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−15.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:16ORE 4th & 10 at WIS 43, down 6
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−1.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:29WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 39, down 1
    Close callPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:01ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:38WIS 4th & 20 at WIS 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−4.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:53ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:16ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:11WIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:53WIS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:41ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0246% → 48%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.1%
CJ Verdell run for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
54.1%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
54.1%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+16
54.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 16 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
54.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Hunter KampmoyerSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
54.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zack Baun) to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+1
54.0%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Wisc 38Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+9
54.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 9 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
53.9%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
53.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for 9 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+1
53.9%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Wisc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
53.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for 15 yds to the Wisc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
52.1%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Jack Sanborn return for no gain to the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2356% → 56%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
55.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Mason Stokke for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+4
55.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
55.4%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
55.6%
Collin Larsh 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0844% → 44%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for no gain to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
55.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Sean DollarsSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Noah Burks) to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
55.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
56.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 51 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 4 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3856% → 55%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
55.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
55.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
55.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jonathan TaylorSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+4
55.4%
Anthony Lotti punt for 42 yds , Jevon Holland returns for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:4944% → 42%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
56.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 11 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
55.6%
Justin Herbert sacked by Eric Burrell for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 17
OWN 36
-2
56.6%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 19
OWN 34
0
57.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 19
OWN 34
-5
57.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Haki Woods Jr.) to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 24
OWN 29
+9
58.1%
Blake Maimone punt for 57 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 9 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8MISSED FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 6:5957% → 57%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+22
56.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 22 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
58.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for 12 yds to the WISCONSIN 43 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 8
OWN 47
+7
58.1%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+7
58.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 7 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
58.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Cole Van Lanen) to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+6
58.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 6 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
58.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+7
58.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 7 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+1
58.4%
Jack Coan run for 1 yd to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
60.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jason Erdmann) to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+4
58.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 4 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 16
OPP 35
-3
58.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 19
OPP 38
+9
57.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 9 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+47
56.8%
Collin Larsh 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1943% → 41%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
57.5%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+1
57.7%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
58.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+7
59.1%
Blake Maimone punt for 48 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 7 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:4258% → 59%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
57.7%
Jonathan Taylor run for 10 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
58.6%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 36 Jonathan Taylor fumbled, recovered by Oregn Deommodore Lenoir , return for 7 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4945% → 43%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
55.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 7 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
54.9%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
55.9%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
57.2%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:3259% → 60%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
59.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 3 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+9
59.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 9 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.2%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
60.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 4 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+24
60.3%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Thomas Graham Jr. return for 24 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:4145% → 56%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
55.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 15 yds to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
55.0%
CJ Verdell run for 13 yds to the Wisc 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
44.4%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 2:4852% → 63%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
52.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 7
50
+7
52.1%
Jack Coan run for 7 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
52.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 9 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
54.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
52.0%
Mason Stokke run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
54.0%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mykael Wright) to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
54.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
53.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for no gain to the Oregn 11Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
62.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16FUMBLE TD
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:5161% → 46%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
61.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-5
61.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+9
61.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 9 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+12
61.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 12 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
62.3%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
61.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+31
45.7%
Anthony Lotti run for a loss of 10 yards Anthony Lotti fumbled, recovered by Oregn Brady Breeze , return for 31 yds (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:5248% → 64%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
47.9%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
50.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Wisc 40Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
48.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 6 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
50.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
51.4%
Jonathan Taylor run for no gain to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
50.6%
Garrett Groshek run for 1 yd to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+34
47.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 34 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
51.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 6 yds to the Oregn 5Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
51.8%
Mason Stokke run for 3 yds to the Oregn 2Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
49.3%
Mason Stokke run for no gain to the Oregn 2Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
64.1%
Mason Stokke run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3940% → 36%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.3%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
60.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for no gain to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
62.8%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
63.8%
Blake Maimone punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 5:4966% → 79%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
65.7%
Kendric Pryor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+15
66.9%
Danny Davis III run for 15 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
67.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 10 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
68.8%
Kendric Pryor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+9
68.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 9 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
67.5%
Kendric Pryor run for 2 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+4
69.3%
Jack Dunn run for 4 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
73.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
73.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
72.0%
Jack Coan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
78.9%
Collin Larsh 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4331% → 28%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
69.5%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+10
70.3%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Faion Hicks) to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
68.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 9 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+5
64.9%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
65.8%
Juwan Johnson pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
66.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 8 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-8
67.4%
Justin Herbert sacked by Noah Burks for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
72.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 39 yds, downed at the Wisc 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 26 yds · 1:1181% → 83%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
81.3%
Jonathan Taylor run for 18 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
82.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
83.4%
Danny Davis III run for 4 yds to the Wisc 30 Danny Davis III fumbled, recovered by Oregn Bryson YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
33.8%
Justin Herbert run for 30 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0448% → 44%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.0%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
47.7%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
44.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 10 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
48.5%
Jonathan Taylor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
47.4%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
44.3%
Connor Allen punt for 35 yds, downed at the Oregn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2063% → 60%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
37.1%
CJ Verdell run for 7 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-3
34.4%
Justin Herbert run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 30 Justin Herbert fumbled, recovered by Oregn Justin HerbertSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
37.2%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
40.5%
Blake Maimone punt for 46 yds , Jack Dunn returns for no gain to the Wisc 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:1847% → 40%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
46.9%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
45.8%
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-14
43.7%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Danny Davis III) to the Wisc 14Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 20
OWN 14
0
41.8%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Quintez CephusSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 20
OWN 14
0
40.1%
Connor Allen punt for 43 yds, downed at the Oregn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26Uncategorized
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:1770% → 92%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
29.9%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+12
25.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 12 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
21.0%
CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
17.9%
CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+28
17.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 28 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
15.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 14Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
8.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:41
Justin Herbert run for 30 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
-49.6
TD · Q3 4:53
Mason Stokke run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)
+18.9
FUMBLE · Q3 11:57
Anthony Lotti run for a loss of 10 yards Anthony Lotti fumbled, recovered by Oregn Brady Breeze , return for 31 yds (Camden Lewis KICK)
-15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com