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MINN

Minnesota 31 at Auburn 24

AUB
2019 · Outback Bowl · Jan 1, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:40 · Arryn Siposs punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+12.0Home team on offense+0.8Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:38: Seth Green run for no gain to the Aub 1 — MINN win probability +9.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:15: Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 37 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +10.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:32: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +12.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:04: JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +17.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:26: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 73 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +32.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:17AUB 4th & 4 at MINN 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:36MINN 4th & 8 at AUB 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:40AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:01AUB 4th & 3 at MINN 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:15AUB 4th & 5 at MINN 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:01AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−3.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:19MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:45MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−2.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:05AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 49, tied
    Close callWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:05MINN 4th & 1 at AUB 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−6.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−20.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:37AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−2.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:38AUB 4th & 7 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:20MINN 4th & 1 at AUB 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.9%−3.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:05MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:15AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:32MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:04AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:26MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1035% → 35%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.5%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
65.4%
Rodney Smith run for 9 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+24
65.3%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Javaris Davis return for 24 yds to the Minn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4366% → 66%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
65.6%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Minn 9Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
65.7%
D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
65.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
65.7%
Anders Carlson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:2334% → 36%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
65.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 13 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
65.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+17
65.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
50
+1
65.1%
Seth Green run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+14
65.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 14 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
65.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 8 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
64.8%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
64.8%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+1
64.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
65.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Tyler JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
64.2%
Michael Lantz 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5232% → 32%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.6%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
67.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
68.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+1
68.5%
Jacob Herbers punt for 37 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 1 yd to the Aub 40 Christian Tutt fumbled, recovered by Minn Thomas BarberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:5733% → 37%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
67.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 7 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+17
66.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 17 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
62.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 16 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:0565% → 65%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
64.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 6 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
65.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 5 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
65.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 6
50
+1
65.5%
D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
65.2%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
64.7%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
64.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3036% → 35%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
63.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 13 yds to the Minn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
63.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
63.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+2
64.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 2 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
64.8%
Jacob Herbers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5065% → 66%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
65.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 14 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
66.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 6 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
66.8%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Minn 47Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
66.4%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
65.7%
Bo Nix punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 5:0236% → 50%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
64.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 8 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+2
63.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
63.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+11
63.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 11 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+31
63.0%
Rodney Smith run for 31 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
60.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
60.6%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+34
60.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 34 yds to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 1 yd to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.7%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.0%
Seth Green run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:3654% → 66%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
54.2%
Harold Joiner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+3
53.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+24
52.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Spencer Nigh for 24 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
55.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
55.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+37
65.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 37 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0839% → 58%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.1%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
60.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
61.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
58.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 29 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
55.4%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+20
57.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 20 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
55.0%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+9
54.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 9 yds to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2449% → 48%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
48.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 6 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-6
47.5%
Bo Nix sacked by Boye Mafe for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3047% → 44%
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
47.4%
D.J. Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
48.6%
Spencer Nigh run for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-8
48.0%
Bo Nix sacked by Sam Renner for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
44.0%
Arryn Siposs punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demetrius Douglas at the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2256% → 57%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
43.6%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
42.7%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+2
42.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
41.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
41.7%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
40.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
42.6%
Jacob Herbers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Christian Tutt at the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 5:0143% → 65%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
43.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 11 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
43.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 5 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
43.7%
Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
43.7%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 7 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+9
45.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 9 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
46.3%
Bo Nix run for 16 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
47.9%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 2 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
47.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+11
45.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Minn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
47.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 15 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
47.5%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 6 JaTarvious Whitlow fumbled, recovered by Aub Prince Tega WanoghoSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
47.3%
Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.6%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:1143% → 41%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
56.7%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Minn 15Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
56.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+12
57.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 12 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
57.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 6 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
57.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 28Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
58.9%
Jacob Herbers punt for 40 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 3 yds to the Aub 31 AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2660% → 59%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
59.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 16 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
61.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
62.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
63.8%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 46Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
61.6%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+3
59.9%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
59.0%
Arryn Siposs pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5649% → 48%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
50.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
50.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
50.4%
Seth Green run for 6 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
48.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+1
49.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
52.1%
Tanner Morgan run for no gain to the Aub 28 Tanner Morgan fumbled, recovered by Minn Axel RuschmeyerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5360% → 56%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
59.6%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
59.4%
D.J. Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
58.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+1
56.1%
Arryn Siposs punt for 42 yds , Demetrius Douglas returns for 1 yd to the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21TD
1 play · 73 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
24.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 73 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2429% → 28%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
29.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+8
32.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 8 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
32.4%
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
50
0
33.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 7
50
0
31.1%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 7
50
0
27.8%
Arryn Siposs punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
21 plays · 68 yds · 7:5478% → 96%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
22.4%
Rodney Smith run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+19
22.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 19 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
18.3%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
16.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rodney Smith for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
50
-1
12.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
13.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+8
12.9%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+11
13.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Witham for 11 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
9.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-10
9.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+4
9.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+10
9.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 10 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
4.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+7
4.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:26
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 73 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-32
TD · Q3 5:04
JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)
+17.3
TD · Q2 0:32
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com