Try the model
MICH

Michigan 16 at Alabama 35

ALA
2019 · Vrbo Citrus Bowl · Jan 1, 2020 · Camping World Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Shea Patterson pass intercepted, touchback. Josh Jobe return for no gain
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:16: Quinn Nordin 42 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +3.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:32: Najee Harris run for 9 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +11.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:01: Quinn Nordin 57 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +9.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:30: Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +11.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:01: Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 20 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK) — ALA win probability +16.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:58MICH 4th & 8 at ALA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:37MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:02ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09MICH 4th & 8 at ALA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:59ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:16MICH 4th & 6 at ALA 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:40MICH 4th & 2 at ALA 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−0.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:49MICH 4th & 17 at MICH 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−3.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:19ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 42, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:35MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 31, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−2.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:44ALA 4th & 9 at MICH 44, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−2.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:45MICH 4th & 21 at ALA 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−3.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:53MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 48, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:21ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 18, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:47ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:06MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:32ALA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:30ALA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:01ALA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:26ALA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4429% → 29%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
50
0
71.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 10
50
+2
71.4%
Donovan Peoples-Jones run for 2 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
71.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
71.4%
Will Hart punt for 33 yds, downed at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
71.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 85 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5828% → 28%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
71.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Giles Jackson for 7 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
71.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
71.8%
Giles Jackson run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
71.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
71.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
72.1%
Will Hart punt for 36 yds, downed at the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2572% → 72%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
72.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 15 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
72.4%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
72.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 6
50
0
72.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 6
50
-5
72.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 11
OWN 45
-2
72.1%
Mike Bernier punt for 38 yds , Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 2:5228% → 31%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
72.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
72.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
72.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for 9 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+12
72.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 12 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+34
72.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Donovan Peoples-Jones for 34 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
71.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 11 yds to the Alab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 7 yds for a TD (Christian Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:1870% → 70%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.3%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
70.3%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 21 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
70.9%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-3
71.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 49Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
70.1%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jaylen WaddleSimilar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
69.8%
Mike Bernier punt for 50 yds, downed at the Mich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7FG
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:1830% → 33%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
69.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+11
69.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 11 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
69.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+8
69.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 8 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
68.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 11 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
67.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Giles Jackson for 40 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
66.8%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
66.8%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
67.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
67.0%
Quinn Nordin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:0267% → 67%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
67.2%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+25
67.1%
Najee Harris run for 25 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
68.4%
Jerry Jeudy run for 1 yd to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-1
68.2%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
66.8%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
66.5%
Mike Bernier punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:3334% → 43%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
66.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
65.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for 7 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
65.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 7 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-1
64.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+7
64.2%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
63.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
62.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
62.8%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
62.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jon Runyan) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 20
50
+22
62.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 22 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
60.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
60.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
60.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Alab 16 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Touching (Ronnie Bell) to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
57.0%
Quinn Nordin 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2060% → 74%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
60.8%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
59.9%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 17 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
61.5%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+15
61.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lavert Hill) to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
62.5%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
62.4%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-5
61.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Landon Dickerson) to the Mich 26Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+13
60.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Aidan Hutchinson) to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
62.1%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
73.8%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11END OF HALF
14 plays · 36 yds · 3:1931% → 42%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
69.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 18 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
67.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+3
66.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
65.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
65.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
64.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
64.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+2
66.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
63.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Sean McKeonSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
63.3%
Shea Patterson sacked by Anfernee Jennings and Tevita Musika for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+57
57.6%
Quinn Nordin 57 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2261% → 76%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
61.2%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+25
60.7%
Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 25 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
63.9%
Najee Harris run for 11 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
75.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:1130% → 28%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
69.8%
Ronnie Bell run for 9 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
67.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-5
68.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+8
69.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Giles Jackson for 8 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
67.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Donovan Peoples-JonesSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
68.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 9
50
-8
69.4%
Shea Patterson sacked by Xavier McKinney for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 17
OWN 42
+19
72.2%
Brad Robbins punt blocked by Ale Kaho blocked by Ale KahoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0174% → 72%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
74.0%
Henry Ruggs III run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
73.7%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
73.1%
Mac Jones pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
72.0%
Mike Bernier punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:3229% → 28%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
70.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 24
-1
70.1%
Giles Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+6
71.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 6 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
70.7%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
71.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+13
72.3%
Will Hart punt for 47 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 13 yds to the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2574% → 72%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
73.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 7 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
75.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alex Leatherwood) to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+18
74.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 18 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
76.2%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 15
50
0
73.9%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 15
50
-5
72.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jedrick Wills Jr.) to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+11
72.0%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 11 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
72.0%
Mike Bernier punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
17 plays · 55 yds · 6:3529% → 29%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
71.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Mich 9Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+2
71.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+19
72.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 19 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
69.8%
Shea Patterson run for 8 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
66.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
68.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Nico Collins) to the Mich 36Similar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
67.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 15
OWN 36
-5
70.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jalen Mayfield) to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+17
70.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 17 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+12
66.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 12 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
65.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
65.4%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
64.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-13
63.7%
Shea Patterson sacked by Shane Lee for a loss of 13 yards to the Alab 43 Shea Patterson fumbled, forced by Shane Lee, recovered by Mich Zach Charbonnet , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 23
OPP 43
0
68.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 23
OPP 43
+2
69.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Giles Jackson for 2 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 11:45
4TH & 21
OPP 41
0
71.5%
Will Hart punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 1:2977% → 94%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
76.7%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 8Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 8
0
76.4%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 11
OWN 8
+14
75.1%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 14 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+58
77.4%
Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 58 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
93.6%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 20 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:489% → 8%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
91.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+11
90.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 11 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Nico CollinsSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
90.9%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
91.9%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
92.5%
Will Hart punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Waddle at the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2294% → 94%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
93.8%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
94.5%
Mac Jones run for no gain to the Alab 18Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
94.7%
Mac Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
94.4%
Mike Bernier punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Donovan Peoples-Jones at the Mich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.8%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Shyheim Carter return for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3895% → 100%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.0%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
95.3%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
95.5%
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 5 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
96.2%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+19
96.8%
Najee Harris run for 19 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
97.4%
Najee Harris run for 16 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
97.5%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the Mich 18Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+2
98.0%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+12
97.9%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Mich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.2%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Mich 4Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
98.3%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Mich 2Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:141% → 1%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Nico Collins for 7 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
99.1%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
99.2%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted, touchback. Josh Jobe return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:01
Mac Jones pass complete to Miller Forristall for 20 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+16.2
TD · Q3 13:30
Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q2 3:32
Najee Harris run for 9 yds for a TD (Joseph Bulovas KICK)
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com