2019 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:55 · Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 2 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:53: Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +13.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:57: Deshawn McClease run for 43 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +15.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:57: Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 61 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +16.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:47: Brian Johnson 27 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +9.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:15: Lynn Bowden Jr. pass complete to Josh Ali for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +68.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 11:15VT 4th & 13 at UK 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snapGo for it54.0%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call54.1%42% to makePunt54.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:05UK 4th & 1 at VT 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.4%71% to convertField goal45.8%−0.649% to makePunt45.6%−0.8average punt
- Q1 0:00UK 4th & 13 at UK 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it44.6%−1.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.8%average punt
- Q2 7:02UK 4th & 10 at UK 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.4%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.8%average punt
- Q2 5:02VT 4th & 7 at VT 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it62.8%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.5%average punt
- Q3 11:29UK 4th & 8 at VT 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snapGo for it44.6%−1.233% to convertField goalTheir call45.7%72% to makePunt37.1%−8.7average punt
- Q3 4:12VT 4th & 8 at UK 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.2%34% to convertField goal50.0%−0.247% to makePunt48.5%−1.8average punt
- Q3 3:13VT 4th & 10 at UK 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snapGo for it47.6%−2.628% to convertField goalTheir call50.2%72% to makePunt37.2%−13.0average punt
- Q4 12:47VT 4th & 3 at UK 9, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snapGo for it60.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call58.7%−1.589% to makePunt43.2%−17.1average punt
- Q4 8:25VT 4th & 4 at VT 45, up 6Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snapGo for it75.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:37UK 4th & 7 at UK 43, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.0%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.6%−3.5average punt
- Q4 0:55UK 4th & 1 at VT 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.1%71% to convertField goal13.2%−12.964% to makePunt9.1%−17.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:20UK Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.6%97% to makeGo for two49.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:04VT Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.7%97% to makeGo for two53.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:20VT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.7%97% to makeGo for two61.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:53UK Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.3%97% to makeGo for two44.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:57VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.9%97% to makeGo for two62.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:57UK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.6%97% to makeGo for two49.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 0:15UK Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.5%97% to makeGo for two64.1%−14.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVTDrive 1FG13 plays · 39 yds · 3:3558% → 57%
Q1 14:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
42.2%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Turner, Tre, PENALTY KENTUCKY roughing passer (Watson, Jamar) 15 yards to the VATECH40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
42.2%
Hooker, Hendon pass incomplete to Turner, Tre, PENALTY KENTUCKY personal foul (Taylor Jr., Calvin) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
42.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Keshawn King for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 13
OPP 36
0
43.0%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Jordan WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD16 plays · 80 yds · 6:4043% → 48%
Q1 9:30
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+15
42.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Armani Chatman) to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+25
43.5%
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass complete to Josh Ali for 25 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
44.4%
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass complete to Clevan Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
44.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Logan Stenberg) to the VTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0653% → 57%
UKDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 2:0044% → 43%
VTDrive 5TD9 plays · 60 yds · 4:4057% → 64%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Deshawn McClease for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+17
43.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Deshawn McClease for 17 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
36.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 6 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0336% → 34%
VTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5866% → 65%
UKDrive 8TD9 plays · 64 yds · 4:0534% → 50%
VTDrive 9END OF HALF6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4057% → 61%
UKDrive 10FG8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2645% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11TD5 plays · 76 yds · 1:1852% → 70%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
47.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 11 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5834% → 52%
Q3 8:52
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
30.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FG14 plays · 53 yds · 4:3652% → 60%
Q3 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
46.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Keshawn King for 9 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+22
44.5%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 22 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+12
47.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 12 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14FUMBLE6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2742% → 45%
Q3 0:33
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
45.3%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 39 Asim Rose fumbled, recovered by VTech Jaylen GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15FG6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3964% → 74%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16INT6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4733% → 32%
VTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1578% → 76%
Q4 8:25
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
23.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Lynn Bowden Jr. at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD20 plays · 85 yds · 7:4528% → 92%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:15
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass complete to Josh Ali for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+68.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+22.1
TD · Q3 7:57
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 61 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+16.8