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MSST

Mississippi State 28 at Louisville 38

LOU
2019 · Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl · Dec 30, 2019 · Nissan Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:17 · Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense−5.8Pregame prior−7.5Garbage-time factor−1.8Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:57: Tutu Atwell pass complete to Marshon Ford for 33 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK) — LOU win probability +9.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:01: Micale Cunningham pass complete to Devante Peete for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK) — LOU win probability +20.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FUMBLE · Q3 2:51: Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds Tommy Stevens fumbled, forced by Gary McCrae, recovered by Lvile Khane Pass , return for 31 yds (Ryan Chalifoux KICK) — LOU win probability +20.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:52: Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK) — LOU win probability +12.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:25: Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 18 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +13.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:55MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:10LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:59MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:08LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:17LOU 4th & 11 at MSST 34, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:14MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:26LOU 4th & 7 at MSST 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−9.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:22MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−2.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:22MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:12LOU 4th & 8 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:00MSST 4th & 4 at LOU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:48MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:19MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:57LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:01LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:52LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:25MSST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:13LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:27MSST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3662% → 62%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
37.7%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
37.8%
Lee Witherspoon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+9
38.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
38.3%
Tucker Day punt for 56 yds, downed at the Lvile 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 96 yds · 3:4238% → 41%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
38.4%
Micale Cunningham run for 9 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+3
38.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
38.8%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 14 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
38.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 16 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
39.5%
Tutu Atwell run for 9 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+22
40.1%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Davis for 22 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
40.3%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+24
40.5%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 24 yds Dez Fitzpatrick fumbled, forced by Willie Gay Jr., recovered by MisSt Tim WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 99 yds · 3:5960% → 64%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
39.6%
Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
39.8%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen GuidrySimilar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+24
40.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 24 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
39.8%
Tommy Stevens run for 16 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
39.5%
Lee Witherspoon run for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+27
39.5%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 27 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
39.3%
Payton, JaVonta rush for loss of 4 yards to the LOUISVILLE23, PENALTY LOUISVILLE face mask (Avery, C.J.) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
39.4%
Lee Witherspoon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.0%
Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1538% → 37%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
37.5%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+7
37.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
37.1%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
36.9%
Mason King punt for 41 yds, downed at the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5763% → 63%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
36.9%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-5
36.8%
Tommy Stevens sacked by C.J. Avery for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+4
37.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
37.5%
Tucker Day punt for 55 yds, downed at the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3937% → 37%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
36.8%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
37.8%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
38.2%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-1
37.8%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
36.7%
Mason King punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:3964% → 73%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
36.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 11 yds Stephen Guidry fumbled, forced by Chandler Jones, recovered by MisSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
35.9%
Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+15
35.4%
Nick Gibson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
34.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
34.8%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+11
35.2%
Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
34.6%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Dorian Etheridge) to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
34.6%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Dorian Etheridge) to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down. (Dorian Etheridge ejected from game)Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
33.5%
Nick Gibson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
33.3%
Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 3Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.6%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:1528% → 38%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
28.0%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
28.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+11
28.5%
Micale Cunningham run for 11 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
28.4%
Micale Cunningham run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+33
37.7%
Tutu Atwell pass complete to Marshon Ford for 33 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:2338% → 34%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
37.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Bentley) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 19
OPP 42
-5
35.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tutu Atwell) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 24
OPP 47
-1
35.6%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+19
35.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-5
36.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
35.8%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Hassan HallSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
34.1%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5668% → 67%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
32.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
31.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-7
31.6%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
33.5%
Tucker Day punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11END OF HALF
12 plays · 50 yds · 2:5935% → 42%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
34.6%
Micale Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+12
33.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 12 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
35.9%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
36.6%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+4
34.9%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 4 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+16
35.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 16 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
37.9%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Kobe Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+12
36.1%
Micale Cunningham run for 12 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+5
36.3%
TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Jones, Kobe) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
37.2%
Tutu Atwell pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+31
42.1%
Ryan Chalifoux 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:5940% → 42%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
40.2%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+5
39.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+25
39.0%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 25 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
43.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 12 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
43.9%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+3
42.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+23
42.9%
Micale Cunningham run for 23 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
46.0%
Micale Cunningham run for 1 yd to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
46.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-1
44.3%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
42.1%
Ryan Chalifoux 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5161% → 60%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
39.1%
Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
39.4%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Boosie Whitlow for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+8
41.0%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 8 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
40.5%
Tucker Day punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1642% → 63%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
42.3%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
40.6%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+19
39.4%
Micale Cunningham run for 19 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
43.9%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
43.9%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+12
42.6%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 12 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
63.0%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Devante Peete for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5744% → 22%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
55.8%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 12 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
56.1%
Tommy Stevens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-13
57.0%
Tommy Stevens sacked by Chandler Jones for a loss of 13 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 22
OWN 20
+31
77.9%
Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds Tommy Stevens fumbled, forced by Gary McCrae, recovered by Lvile Khane Pass , return for 31 yds (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5623% → 20%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.7%
Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
77.1%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.4%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Dontea JonesSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
79.8%
Tucker Day punt for 39 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for no gain to the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:2080% → 94%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
79.7%
Micale Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+24
80.6%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 24 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
82.6%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+3
82.7%
Micale Cunningham run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+29
81.6%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 29 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:237% → 20%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.4%
Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
93.3%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.5%
Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
93.7%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Dontea JonesSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
93.9%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
94.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 23 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
94.1%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 13 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
80.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 18 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5785% → 89%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
86.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
88.1%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
88.9%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+5
87.9%
Micale Cunningham run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 8
50
0
88.5%
Mason King punt for 39 yds, downed at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:0510% → 9%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
89.6%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+5
90.1%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
90.7%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 6 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
89.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Robert Hicks) to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
89.7%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
90.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 13 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Nick GibsonSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
89.2%
Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+6
90.6%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Nick Gibson for 6 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
90.6%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Kylin HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 1:4192% → 99%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
92.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+24
93.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 24 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
94.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+12
95.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 12 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
95.9%
Micale Cunningham run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 1:221% → 5%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
99.3%
Tommy Stevens sacked by C.J. Avery for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 17
OWN 7
+22
99.4%
Tommy Stevens run for 22 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
99.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 20 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
99.3%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 16 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.2%
Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
99.2%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 11 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
95.4%
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 24 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 2:51
Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds Tommy Stevens fumbled, forced by Gary McCrae, recovered by Lvile Khane Pass , return for 31 yds (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)
+20.9
TD · Q3 5:01
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Devante Peete for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)
+20.3
TD · Q4 10:25
Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 18 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com