2019 · PlayStation Fiesta Bowl - CFP Semifinal · Dec 28, 2019 · State Farm Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:05 · Will Spiers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:45: Travis Etienne run for 8 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +7.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:10: Trevor Lawrence run for 67 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +12.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:54: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 53 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +21.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:46: Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +25.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:49: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 34 yds for a TD, (Trevor Lawrence pass to Tee Higgins for Two-Point Conversion) — CLEM win probability +59.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 12:03OSU 4th & 4 at CLEM 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snapGo for it46.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call45.9%−<0.193% to makePunt45.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:44CLEM 4th & 7 at OSU 32, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snapGo for it52.9%37% to convertField goalTheir call52.9%−<0.151% to makePunt52.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:05CLEM 4th & 4 at OSU 45, down 10Close callPunted · 49.9% before the snapGo for it50.1%48% to convertField goal49.4%−0.725% to makePuntTheir call49.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:47OSU 4th & 15 at OSU 15, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snapGo for it51.4%−1.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.2%average punt
- Q1 0:53CLEM 4th & 9 at CLEM 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snapGo for it45.0%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q2 14:11OSU 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snapGo for it55.3%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call55.4%92% to makePunt49.3%−6.1average punt
- Q2 12:15CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, down 13Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snapGo for it38.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.9%−0.8average punt
- Q2 7:20OSU 4th & 15 at CLEM 16, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snapGo for it65.0%−2.515% to convertField goalTheir call67.5%81% to makePunt59.6%−7.9average punt
- Q2 1:55OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 32, up 9Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snapGo for it64.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:04OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 26, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it48.2%−2.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.2%average punt
- Q3 14:06CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 44, down 2Close callPunted · 45.5% before the snapGo for it46.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 10:39OSU 4th & 5 at CLEM 45, up 2Close callPunted · 57.4% before the snapGo for it58.1%41% to convertField goal55.7%−2.525% to makePuntTheir call57.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 6:21OSU 4th & 15 at OSU 20, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it33.5%−4.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.6%average punt
- Q3 4:47CLEM 4th & 19 at CLEM 20, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snapGo for it57.2%−5.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.5%average punt
- Q3 1:38CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 44, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snapGo for it62.4%−4.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q4 11:46OSU 4th & 1 at CLEM 23, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.2%71% to convertField goal33.5%−4.770% to makePunt18.8%−19.4average punt
- Q4 9:59CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 46, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it37.1%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.3%average punt
- Q4 3:07OSU 4th & 4 at CLEM 39, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 7.2 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snapGo for it75.8%48% to convertField goal70.3%−5.536% to makePuntTheir call68.6%−7.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 8:35OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.4%97% to makeGo for two49.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:45CLEM Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.4%97% to makeGo for two35.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:10CLEM Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.5%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:54CLEM Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.1%97% to makeGo for two59.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:46OSU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.5%97% to makeGo for two62.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:49CLEM Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick74.8%−0.797% to makeGo for twoTheir call75.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1FG11 plays · 71 yds · 2:4237% → 39%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 9 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
37.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 8 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
37.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 11 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
37.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 16 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
38.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 22 yds to the Clem 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
38.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2MISSED FG11 plays · 43 yds · 2:5661% → 60%
Q1 11:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+21
38.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 21 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
38.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 3 yds to the OhSt 38Similar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
39.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 3 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD1 play · 68 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 2:1658% → 57%
Q1 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+27
42.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 27 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
42.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 2 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
43.4%
Will Spiers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 3:0345% → 46%
Q1 5:07
2ND & 14
OWN 5
0
45.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for no gain to the OhSt 5Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 14
OWN 5
+15
45.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 15 yds to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-6
46.2%
Justin Fields sacked by James Skalski and Justin Foster for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5454% → 51%
OSUDrive 7FG6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3849% → 57%
Q1 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
48.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 8 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4546% → 44%
OSUDrive 9FG18 plays · 70 yds · 4:5259% → 66%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
59.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (A.J. Terrell) to the OhSt 21Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+24
60.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 24 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
62.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 6 yds to the Clem 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3137% → 44%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
63.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+15
63.9%
OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Shaun Wade) to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+15
63.7%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Amir Riep) to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4360% → 62%
CLEMDrive 12TD5 plays · 83 yds · 0:4036% → 49%
Q2 1:38
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+16
65.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 16 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 0:5952% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:5050% → 50%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
50.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 52 yds · 3:2052% → 54%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
51.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 13 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+22
52.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 22 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
53.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD8 plays · 99 yds · 2:3947% → 68%
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+10
53.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 10 yds to the Clem 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
52.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 3 yds to the Clem 14Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+15
56.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
31.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 53 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2636% → 33%
CLEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2267% → 64%
OSUDrive 20INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2338% → 36%
CLEMDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1268% → 67%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
31.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joe Ngata for 11 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-1
29.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 48Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-8
30.4%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Baron Browning for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 44Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 13
OWN 44
+2
33.4%
Will Spiers punt for 42 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 2 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22TD14 plays · 84 yds · 4:4036% → 66%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
36.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 8 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+7
37.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 7 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+11
34.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 11 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
38.7%
Justin Fields sacked by Baylon Spector for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+17
36.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 17 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
40.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 9 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
43.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 7 yds to the Clem 25Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+23
66.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4140% → 40%
Q4 10:33
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+3
58.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 3 yds to the Clem 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24PUNT13 plays · 50 yds · 6:4764% → 78%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
63.9%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Holding (K'Von Wallace) to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-11
65.0%
Justin Fields sacked by K'Von Wallace for a loss of 11 yards to the OhSt 21Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 21
OWN 21
+10
64.0%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Derion Kendrick) to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+8
65.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 8 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+12
73.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 12 yds to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+1
77.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Austin Mack for 1 yd to the Clem 39Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+1
77.5%
Drue Chrisman punt for 34 yds , Derion Kendrick returns for 1 yd to the Clem 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25TD4 plays · 94 yds · 1:0631% → 93%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
69.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 11 yds to the Clem 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+38
66.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 38 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
7.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 34 yds for a TD, (Trevor Lawrence pass to Tee Higgins for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26INT10 plays · 52 yds · 1:0420% → 27%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
20.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 13 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
20.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 9 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+13
26.1%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 13 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
24.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 9 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
26.5%
Justin Fields pass intercepted, touchback. Nolan Turner return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -11 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:49
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 34 yds for a TD, (Trevor Lawrence pass to Tee Higgins for Two-Point Conversion)
-59
TD · Q4 11:46
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 23 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+25.3
TD · Q3 7:54
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 53 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
-21