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ND

Notre Dame 33 at Iowa State 9

ISU
2019 · Camping World Bowl · Dec 28, 2019 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:20: Chase Claypool 24 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +3.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:25: Jafar Armstrong 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +10.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:50: Connor Assalley 26 Yd Field Goal — ND win probability +8.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:14: Tony Jones Jr. 84 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +11.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 4:58: Connor Assalley 42 Yd Field Goal — ISU win probability +5.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 13:39ND 4th & 3 at ND 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25ND 4th & 5 at ISU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:29ND 4th & 4 at ISU 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:57ND 4th & 1 at ISU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:39ISU 4th & 10 at ND 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:13ND 4th & 1 at ND 31, up 10
    Close callPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:27ISU 4th & 8 at ND 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:23ND 4th & 10 at ISU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:55ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.1%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:50ISU 4th & 8 at ND 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−3.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:29ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:58ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:31ND 4th & 1 at ISU 46, up 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−3.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:58ISU 4th & 16 at ND 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−5.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:15ND 4th & 1 at ISU 1, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−7.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:27ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:24ND 4th & 6 at ND 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:44ISU 4th & 1 at ND 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:53ND 4th & 12 at ISU 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:25ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 29, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:20ND Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:25ND Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:14ND Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4663% → 63%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
37.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 22Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
37.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+6
37.4%
Jafar Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+6
37.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds , Tarique Milton returns for 6 yds to the IowSt 42 Tarique Milton fumbled, forced by Alohi Gilman, recovered by NDame Chase ClaypoolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:3163% → 62%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
37.5%
Braden Lenzy run for 8 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+1
37.5%
Jafar Armstrong run for 1 yd to the IowSt 33Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 33
-4
37.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 37Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+10
38.1%
Ian Book run for 10 yds to the IowSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
37.8%
Jones Jr., Tony rush for 2 yards to the IOWAST25, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Kmet, Cole) 10 yards to the IOWAST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+3
38.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 3 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 17
OPP 34
0
38.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+13
38.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 13 yds to the IowSt 21Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+39
38.5%
Jonathan Doerer 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:5139% → 40%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
38.5%
Breece Hall run for 23 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
39.2%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 48Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
39.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 5 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+11
39.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 11 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
40.0%
Brock Purdy sacked by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 42 Brock Purdy fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, recovered by NDame Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:3562% → 65%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
38.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 26 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
38.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 5 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
38.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
38.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 23Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+1
39.2%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the IowSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
38.4%
Braden Lenzy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 20Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+1
38.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 19Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 7
OPP 19
-5
38.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Liam Eichenberg) to the IowSt 24Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 12
OPP 24
+24
35.4%
Chase Claypool 24 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:2135% → 34%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
35.3%
Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
34.9%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 25Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+15
34.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 15 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
35.1%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 18 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
35.7%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the NDame 42Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
35.6%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
35.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Tarique MiltonSimilar
Q2 14:39
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
34.3%
Joe Rivera punt for 33 yds, downed at the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5765% → 65%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
35.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 12Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+10
35.2%
Ian Book run for 10 yds to the NDame 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
35.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
35.0%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+7
35.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 7 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
35.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds , Tarique Milton returns for no gain to the IowSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:2234% → 36%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+29
33.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 29 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
34.8%
Sheldon Croney Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+9
35.5%
Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
35.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
35.0%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
33.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
35.8%
Connor Assalley 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:3666% → 69%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+32
33.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 32 yds to the IowSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
32.5%
Chris Finke sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 5 yards to the IowSt 38Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 15
OPP 38
0
33.1%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tony Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+5
32.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 5 yds to the IowSt 33Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
31.0%
Jonathan Doerer 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:0531% → 30%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.8%
Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
30.9%
Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 32Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
30.7%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
31.1%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 35Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
30.5%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Breece HallSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
29.4%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the IowSt 45Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
30.2%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 1:0572% → 83%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
28.5%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the IowSt 44Similar
Q2 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.6%
Ian Book run for no gain to the IowSt 1Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.8%
Jafar Armstrong 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 1:1321% → 20%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
21.2%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 28 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
22.8%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 12 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
23.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 4 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+28
23.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Sean Shaw Jr. for 28 yds to the NDame 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
24.1%
IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Bryce Meeker) to the NDame 8Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.4%
Brock Purdy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
28.4%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
20.2%
Connor Assalley 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4078% → 80%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
21.6%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tony Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
20.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the NDame 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2623% → 23%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.7%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.5%
Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the IowSt 27Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
22.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 7 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
22.8%
Joe Rivera punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14TD
1 play · 84 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
11.5%
Tony Jones Jr. 84 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1114% → 13%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.0%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Tarique Milton for 5 yds to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
13.6%
Brock Purdy run for no gain to the IowSt 30Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
13.0%
Joe Rivera punt for 48 yds, downed at the NDame 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0791% → 92%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
9.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 23 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
8.5%
Braden Lenzy run for 2 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
8.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
8.0%
Ian Book run for no gain to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
8.1%
Jay Bramblett punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:5610% → 13%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
9.9%
Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 25Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
10.1%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+17
9.6%
Brock Purdy pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 17 yds to the IowSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
10.4%
Purdy, Brock pass incomplete to Wilson, Darren, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Pride Jr., Troy) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWAST.Similar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
10.3%
Brock Purdy run for 4 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
10.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 5 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+15
10.5%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 15 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
8.4%
Breece Hall run for no gain to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
8.2%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Sean Shaw Jr.Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-6
7.5%
Brock Purdy sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 16
OPP 25
+42
12.7%
Connor Assalley 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:1591% → 97%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
9.0%
Jafar Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
8.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
8.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 6 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
6.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 9 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
6.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 49Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+3
6.2%
Jafar Armstrong run for 3 yds to the IowSt 46Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+21
5.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 21 yds to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
5.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+20
5.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 20 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
5.2%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
5.1%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the IowSt 1Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
3.0%
Jonathan Doerer 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:344% → 3%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.3%
Breece Hall run for 9 yds to the IowSt 34Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
4.4%
Breece Hall run for 6 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
3.7%
Breece Hall sacked by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 39Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-6
3.4%
Breece Hall run for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 33Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+7
3.0%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Deshaunte Jones for 7 yds to the IowSt 40Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+1
2.9%
Joe Rivera punt for 52 yds , Chris Finke returns for 1 yd to the NDame 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2898% → 98%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
2.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the NDame 10Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+4
2.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 4 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 14
-1
2.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 13Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
1.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:343% → 3%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
2.9%
Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Deshaunte JonesSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
2.8%
Deshaunte Jones run for 3 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
2.7%
Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 6 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-15
2.7%
Brock Purdy sacked by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah for a loss of 15 yards to the IowSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:0799% → 99%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
1.4%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the IowSt 43Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+13
1.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 13 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.3%
C'Bo Flemister run for no gain to the IowSt 30Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
1.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 2 yds to the IowSt 28Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+10
1.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 10 yds to the IowSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
0.8%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the IowSt 17Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-4
0.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 21Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+1
0.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 1 yd to the IowSt 20Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+39
0.8%
Jonathan Doerer 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
0.9%
Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 5 yds to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
0.9%
Re-al Mitchell run for no gain to the IowSt 29Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
0.8%
Re-al Mitchell pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 5
OWN 29
-2
0.8%
Joe Rivera punt for 53 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
0.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 14 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
0.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 9 yds to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
0.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 5 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
0.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:14
Tony Jones Jr. 84 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-11.3
TD · Q2 2:25
Jafar Armstrong 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-10.8
FG · Q2 0:50
Connor Assalley 26 Yd Field Goal
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com