2019 · Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl · Dec 27, 2019 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadOKST aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreOKST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:39: Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +10.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:32: Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +14.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:45: Kellen Mond run for 67 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK) — TA&M win probability +26.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:04: Dru Brown pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK) — OKST win probability +23.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:43: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 45 — TA&M win probability +12.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:43OKST 4th & 21 at TA&M 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snapGo for it36.7%−0.19% to convertField goalTheir call36.8%42% to makePunt36.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:44TA&M 4th & 4 at OKST 43, tiedClose callPunted · 63.3% before the snapGo for it63.4%48% to convertField goal63.2%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call63.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:21TA&M 4th & 13 at OKST 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snapGo for it57.7%−0.521% to convertField goal57.6%−0.625% to makePuntTheir call58.2%average punt
- Q2 8:03OKST 4th & 21 at OKST 5, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snapGo for it51.6%−4.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.0%average punt
- Q2 0:31OKST 4th & 1 at TA&M 29, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 57.5% before the snapGo for it57.7%71% to convertField goalTheir call57.4%−0.358% to makePunt53.3%−4.4average punt
- Q3 14:04OKST 4th & 7 at OKST 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.5%−1.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q3 8:43OKST 4th & 13 at OKST 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snapGo for it37.7%−4.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.3%average punt
- Q3 5:00TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snapGo for it56.8%−2.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%average punt
- Q3 0:36OKST 4th & 1 at OKST 34, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 43.6% before the snapGo for it45.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%−2.9average punt
- Q4 13:55TA&M 4th & 21 at TA&M 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snapGo for it46.5%−10.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.2%average punt
- Q4 12:13OKST 4th & 19 at OKST 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snapGo for it39.5%−6.011% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.6%average punt
- Q4 8:00OKST 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.8%71% to convertField goal15.2%−4.747% to makePunt11.8%−8.0average punt
- Q4 2:52TA&M 4th & 7 at OKST 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snapGo for it91.7%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call92.2%91% to makePunt87.5%−4.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OKST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 7:47OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.9%97% to makeGo for two38.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:34OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.1%97% to makeGo for two47.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:39TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.8%97% to makeGo for two47.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:32TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.0%97% to makeGo for two56.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:45TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.4%97% to makeGo for two77.6%−0.845% to convert
- Q4 1:04OKST Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call9.4%−0.397% to makeGo for two9.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1FUMBLE3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3070% → 70%
OKSTDrive 2MISSED FG4 plays · -11 yds · 1:0031% → 31%
TA&MDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4470% → 69%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
69.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 2 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 4TD5 plays · 97 yds · 1:4231% → 35%
TA&MDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 4:0466% → 63%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
65.6%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the OKSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
65.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 6 yds to the OKSt 36Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-4
65.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 6TD5 plays · 82 yds · 1:2637% → 44%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
63.2%
Chuba Hubbard run for 5 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-10
61.9%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the OKSt 34Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+57
62.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 57 yds to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FUMBLE15 plays · 70 yds · 5:4957% → 52%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
56.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
56.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 11 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
57.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
53.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 6 yds to the OKSt 18Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
52.8%
Kellen Mond run for no gain to the OKSt 5 Kellen Mond fumbled, recovered by OKSt Amen OgbongbemigaSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
52.3%
Kellen Mond run for no gain to the OKSt 5 Kellen Mond fumbled, recovered by OKSt Amen OgbongbemigaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 1:4152% → 52%
TA&MDrive 9TD6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5849% → 58%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
48.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds to the OKSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 10MISSED FG14 plays · 46 yds · 4:5447% → 53%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Dillon Stoner for no gain to the OKSt 37Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
51.1%
Dru Brown pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 36Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+10
51.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OKSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+16
48.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Chuba Hubbard for 16 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
51.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for no gain to the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4653% → 51%
TA&MDrive 13TD8 plays · 60 yds · 3:2051% → 66%
OKSTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1740% → 37%
Q3 8:43
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
62.7%
Tom Hutton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 3:2765% → 60%
Q3 7:50
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+7
64.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
64.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Isaiah Spiller for no gain to the TexAM 47Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
60.1%
Braden Mann punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dillon Stoner at the OKSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 4:0942% → 42%
TA&MDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 1:1560% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1748% → 43%
TA&MDrive 19TD3 plays · 88 yds · 1:0260% → 87%
OKSTDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 63 yds · 2:3018% → 19%
TA&MDrive 21FG11 plays · 59 yds · 4:5388% → 94%
Q4 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
88.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Quartney Davis for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22TD11 plays · 59 yds · 1:266% → 29%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
94.2%
Dru Brown pass complete to Jordan McCray for 8 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+4
93.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Jelani Woods for 4 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
93.7%
Dru Brown pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 17 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+15
93.5%
Chuba Hubbard run for 11 yds to the TexAM 7 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (4 Yards) to the TexAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
70.9%
Dru Brown pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:45
Kellen Mond run for 67 yds for a TD (Seth Small KICK)
+26.2
TD · Q4 1:04
Dru Brown pass complete to Braydon Johnson for 5 yds for a TD (Matt Ammendola KICK)
-23.5
TD · Q3 10:32
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds for a TD, (Seth Small KICK)
+14.7