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MSU

Michigan State 27 at Wake Forest 21

WAKE
2019 · New Era Pinstripe Bowl · Dec 27, 2019 · Yankee Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:51 · Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Home team on offense−9.2Pregame prior−4.3Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:01: Jamie Newman pass intercepted for a TD Mike Panasiuk return for 14 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:14: Jamie Newman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 16 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +4.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:13: Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:19: Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 44 yds for a TD — WAKE win probability +8.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:11: Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +16.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:30MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05WAKE 4th & 9 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:44MSU 4th & 5 at WAKE 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:02WAKE 4th & 2 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:02MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:00WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:22MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 18, up 3
    Close callPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:49MSU 4th & 19 at WAKE 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:38MSU 4th & 1 at WAKE 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−5.0
    23% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:40WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:51MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 37, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:01WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:29WAKE 4th & 8 at MSU 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    36.0%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:47WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:03MSU 4th & 4 at WAKE 10, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−9.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:17WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:44WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:01MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:14WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:13MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:19WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:11MSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0138% → 40%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
37.8%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
37.9%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
38.1%
Cade Carney run for 13 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
38.3%
Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+2
38.7%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
38.8%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
39.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 29 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5561% → 60%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
39.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 6 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
39.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for no gain to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
40.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Drew BeesleySimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
40.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1540% → 42%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
40.4%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 36Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
41.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
41.4%
Jamie Newman run for 6 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
42.0%
Jamie Newman sacked by Jacob Slade for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+6
41.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 9
50
0
42.1%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 9
50
0
41.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1158% → 57%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
42.0%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 18Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+23
42.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 23 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
42.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
42.8%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
42.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
42.8%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
42.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
42.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
42.8%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+10
43.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
43.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 1 yd to the WFrst 21Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+15
43.8%
Elijah Collins run for 15 yds to the WFrst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
44.1%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the WFrst 5Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
44.4%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 2:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
45.0%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.Similar
Q1 2:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
43.1%
Matt Coghlin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5INT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2944% → 40%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
43.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
43.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+14
39.8%
Jamie Newman pass intercepted for a TD Mike Panasiuk return for 14 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3842% → 42%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
41.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 41Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
41.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 6 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-15
41.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+18
39.9%
Jamie Newman run for 18 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 2
50
0
41.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brandon Sowards at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5960% → 58%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
40.4%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
40.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Julian BarnettSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+5
41.1%
Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
41.7%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4542% → 41%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
41.6%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 38Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
41.7%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
42.0%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Steven ClaudeSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
40.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1359% → 58%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
40.8%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+4
41.0%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
41.5%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Julian BarnettSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+36
42.3%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 54 yds , Kendall Hinton returns for 36 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0844% → 49%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
43.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Jaquarii Roberson) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+8
42.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
44.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+18
43.9%
Jamie Newman run for 18 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
44.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-1
44.8%
Jamie Newman run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+16
49.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 16 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:4253% → 62%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
47.1%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+64
47.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 64 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
37.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:3641% → 52%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
40.8%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
41.1%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
40.2%
Jamie Newman run for 10 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
41.3%
Jamie Newman run for 19 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
43.9%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+44
52.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 44 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 5:1351% → 49%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
49.1%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
49.5%
Jalen Nailor run for 10 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
48.6%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
47.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 18 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
47.1%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+8
47.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
46.6%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 3
OPP 25
-5
46.4%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+13
48.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 13 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
47.1%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+2
47.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-8
48.7%
Brian Lewerke sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+44
50.6%
Matt Coghlin 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14END OF HALF
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:2552% → 55%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
51.9%
Jamie Newman run for 9 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
53.8%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Jack FreudenthalSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+8
52.8%
Cade Carney run for 8 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
54.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 5
OPP 47
0
54.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Jack FreudenthalSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-1
54.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:3749% → 70%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
50.6%
Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Julian BarnettSimilar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
51.1%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+14
51.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 14 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
48.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 5
50
+1
47.9%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
48.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
50.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
48.7%
Elijah Collins run for 31 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
47.2%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
30.3%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:0637% → 34%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
36.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 9 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
39.3%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
39.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall HintonSimilar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
39.0%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall HintonSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-15
36.7%
Newman, Jamie pass complete to Claude, Steven for 7 yards to the MICHIGANST46, PENALTY WAKEFOREST personal foul 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 25
OWN 32
-5
34.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 30
OWN 27
+13
34.2%
Jamie Newman run for 13 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 17
OWN 40
+7
34.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 39 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2968% → 68%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
31.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Parks Gissinger for 5 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
30.8%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
30.8%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
32.0%
Jake Hartbarger punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2335% → 32%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
35.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+9
34.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
34.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the WFrst 27Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
34.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 2 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
33.0%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+8
31.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 53 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 8 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:4769% → 72%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
30.7%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 18 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
28.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
27.4%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
26.8%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
26.5%
Cody White pass incomplete to Laress NelsonSimilar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+3
27.6%
Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Ryan Smenda Jr. return for 3 yds to the WFrst 22 Ryan Smenda Jr. fumbled, recovered by WFrst Essang BasseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:2634% → 37%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
34.1%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
34.5%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+4
33.5%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
34.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
34.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+28
32.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 28 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
39.0%
Jamie Newman sacked by Kenny Willekes and Drew Beesley for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
36.5%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+6
35.0%
Cade Carney run for 6 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 14:29
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
37.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:4273% → 77%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
27.2%
Elijah Collins run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
50
+6
26.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
25.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tyler Williams) to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
25.2%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
23.7%
Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
22.9%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 17 yds to the WFrst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
22.8%
Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the WFrst 10 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Brian Lewerke) to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+9
23.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 9 yds Trenton Gillison fumbled, forced by Ja'Cquez Williams, recovered by WFrst Ja'Cquez WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:3732% → 31%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
32.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+3
32.8%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
32.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+4
32.6%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+8
34.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 8 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
32.8%
Jamie Newman sacked by Naquan Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+11
31.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 11 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+1
31.7%
Jamie Newman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 38Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+11
31.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 53 yds , Brandon Sowards returns for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23MISSED FG
16 plays · 80 yds · 4:3278% → 89%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
22.4%
Collins, Elijah rush for 5 yards to the MICHIGANST15, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 5 yards to the MICHIGANST5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+16
21.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 16 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
20.6%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
19.9%
Brian Lewerke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+20
20.5%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 20 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
17.0%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Tre Mosley for 23 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
15.3%
Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-10
13.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt Allen) to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+24
12.6%
Brian Lewerke run for 24 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
11.1%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+1
10.2%
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 1 yd to the WFrst 12Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+2
9.6%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
11.3%
Matt Coghlin 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4021% → 18%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.1%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Jack FreudenthalSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
20.5%
Jamie Newman sacked by Kenny Willekes for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 14 Jamie Newman fumbled, forced by Kenny Willekes, recovered by WFrst Kendall Hinton return for 2 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
19.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
18.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Steven ClaudeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3394% → 96%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
5.8%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+5
4.3%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the WFrst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 6Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:11
Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q2 8:13
Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q2 6:19
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 44 yds for a TD
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com