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UNC

North Carolina 55 at Temple 13

TEM
2019 · Military Bowl · Dec 27, 2019 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:51 · Re'Mahn Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−37.7Score differential−19.2Pregame prior−8.4Garbage-time factor−8.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:24: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 39 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +3.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:59: Re'Mahn Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Mobley PAT BLOCKED) — TEM win probability +6.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:14: Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 16 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +6.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:01: Noah Ruggles 36 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +4.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:24: Antonio Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +8.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:20TEM 4th & 8 at UNC 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04UNC 4th & 15 at TEM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:51TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:58TEM 4th & 20 at UNC 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:17UNC 4th & 9 at TEM 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:33TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.2%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:28TEM 4th & 10 at UNC 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:51TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:20TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 27, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:21TEM 4th & 4 at UNC 45, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:00UNC 4th & 5 at TEM 25, up 35
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:24UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:59TEM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:14UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:24UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:12UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:54UNC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:21TEM Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:51UNC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:11UNC Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEMDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:3331% → 32%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
30.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 9 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
31.1%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 5 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
31.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 9 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
31.8%
Jadan Blue run for 5 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
32.1%
Branden Mack run for 7 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-4
32.3%
Re'Mahn Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-1
32.6%
Anthony Russo sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
32.3%
Adam Barry punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:0668% → 66%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
32.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sam Franklin) to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
32.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
32.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+24
33.0%
Sam Howell run for 24 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
32.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 20 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
32.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 29Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-10
32.6%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Corrales, Beau, PENALTY UNC holding (Ezeudu, Joshua) 10 yards to the TEMPLE39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 21
OPP 39
+2
33.0%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the Temp 37Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 19
OPP 37
+4
33.5%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Corrales, Beau, PENALTY TEMPLE offside (Levine, Dana) 4 yards to the TEMPLE33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 15
OPP 33
0
33.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+50
33.9%
Noah Ruggles 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0934% → 34%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
33.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 32Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
33.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 2 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
33.8%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Travon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
33.7%
Adam Barry punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:2166% → 69%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
33.9%
Sam Howell run for 24 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
30.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 39 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5MISSED FG
19 plays · 50 yds · 5:2232% → 31%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
31.6%
Jeremy Jennings run for 3 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dominique Ross) to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
32.1%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Branden MackSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
31.9%
Re'Mahn Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 42Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+10
31.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Trey Morrison) to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
32.6%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Jadan BlueSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
32.5%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+7
32.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Branden Mack for 7 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
32.6%
Centeio, Todd pass incomplete to Mack, Branden, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Ross, Dominique) 8 yards to the UNC29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE.Similar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-7
33.1%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 26 TEMPLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Branden Mack) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 17
OPP 36
0
32.2%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Branden MackSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 17
OPP 36
+7
32.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jadan Blue for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+14
32.5%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 14 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-11
33.0%
Todd Centeio sacked by Don Chapman for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 21
OPP 26
+1
32.5%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 20
OPP 25
0
31.9%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Re'Mahn DavisSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+42
31.0%
Will Mobley 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 5:3369% → 71%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
30.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.9%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
30.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
30.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 13 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
29.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 5 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+10
29.3%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
29.2%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Temp 33Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
29.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+10
29.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 10 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
29.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 8 yds to the Temp 15Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+1
29.0%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the Temp 14Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
29.2%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Temp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
28.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 3 yds to the Temp 7Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
29.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 9Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
28.9%
Noah Ruggles 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1128% → 36%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 3 yds to the Temp 28Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+60
27.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 60 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
29.8%
Anthony Russo run for 3 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
29.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 5 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
36.4%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Mobley PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3666% → 75%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
33.8%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
33.8%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
33.9%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
33.4%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+39
32.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 39 yds to the Temp 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
31.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 2 yds to the Temp 14Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-2
31.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 16Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
25.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 16 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9MISSED FG
15 plays · 40 yds · 3:3525% → 25%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
25.0%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden MackSimilar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
24.8%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 6 yds to the Temp 29Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+6
24.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 6 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
24.8%
Anthony Russo pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
24.6%
Re'Mahn Davis run for no gain to the Temp 35Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+9
23.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kadas Reams for 9 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
25.0%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 3 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
25.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+8
26.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
26.5%
Re'Mahn Davis run for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
26.3%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Jose BarbonSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
26.7%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Jadan BlueSimilar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+54
25.3%
Jacob LaFree 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:2177% → 84%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
22.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 12 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
22.2%
Michael Carter run for 22 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
21.0%
Howell, Sam pass sacked for loss of 1 yards to the TEMPLE30 (Roche, Quincy), PENALTY TEMPLE offside (Levine, Dana) 5 yards to the TEMPLE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 5
OPP 24
0
20.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
20.3%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Quincy Roche) to the Temp 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+36
16.1%
Noah Ruggles 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:2680% → 93%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
19.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 11 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
19.3%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
18.9%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+13
18.8%
Javonte Williams run for 13 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
17.4%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+10
16.8%
Antonio Williams run for 10 yds to the Temp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
16.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 22 yds to the Temp 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
16.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the Temp 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.4%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
5.6%
Anthony Russo pass intercepted for a TD Storm Duck return for 20 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:116% → 5%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.6%
Re'Mahn Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 24Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
5.3%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Jadan Blue, broken up by Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
5.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 10 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-3
5.0%
Re'Mahn Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:4696% → 99%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
4.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+1
3.9%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+4
3.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 4 yds to the Temp 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
3.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+14
3.3%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY TEMPLE pass interference (Walls, Benny) 14 yards to the TEMPLE7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
2.9%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Temp 5Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
2.9%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the Temp 2Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.5%
Rontavius Groves pass complete to Sam Howell for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:202% → 1%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
1.6%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 3 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
1.5%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden MackSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-7
1.4%
Anthony Russo sacked by Tomon Fox and Chazz Surratt for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 27Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 14
OWN 27
+16
1.3%
Adam Barry punt for 39 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 16 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
50
+1
1.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 1 yd Dazz Newsome fumbled, recovered by TempSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:492% → 2%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
1.5%
Jadan Blue run for no gain to the Temp 49Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
1.4%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+4
1.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Travon Williams for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+45
2.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 45 yds for a TD (Jacob LaFree KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:0998% → 99%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+24
2.5%
Javonte Williams run for 24 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
2.3%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+9
1.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
2.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Christian BraswellSimilar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
2.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Jake Bargas for 9 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
1.7%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
1.0%
Michael Carter run for 15 yds to the Temp 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
0.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-10
0.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Anderson) to the Temp 29Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 18
OPP 29
+29
0.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 29 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19INT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:460% → 0%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.4%
Tayvon Ruley run for 6 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
0.4%
Tayvon Ruley run for 3 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
0.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
0.3%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 5 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
0.3%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
0.3%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-5
0.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jadan Blue for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
0.3%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted Tomon Fox return for no gain to the NCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
12 plays · 52 yds · 7:29100% → 100%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
0.3%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
0.3%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
0.3%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Temp 39Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+3
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Temp 29Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
0.2%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the Temp 24Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
-1
0.2%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 25Similar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+11
0.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 11 yds to the Temp 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
0.1%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the Temp 8Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+6
0.1%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Temp 4 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Face Mask (2 yards) (2 Yards) to the Temp 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Trad Beatty run for 5 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
0.1%
Trad Beatty run for 7 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.1%
Tayvon Ruley run for 4 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
0.1%
Edward Saydee run for no gain to the Temp 41Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+2
0.1%
Edward Saydee run for 2 yds to the Temp 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:24
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q2 7:59
Re'Mahn Davis run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Mobley PAT BLOCKED)
+6.6
TD · Q2 4:14
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 16 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com