Try the model
LT

Louisiana Tech 14 at Miami 0

MIA
2019 · Walk-On's Independence Bowl · Dec 26, 2019 · Independence Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:55 · Lou Hedley punt for 51 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 17 yds to the LaTch 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+15.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:34: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 26 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +7.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:40: J'Mar Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26 — LT win probability +7.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:00: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 3 yds to the LaTch 47 — MIA win probability +10.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:24: N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Will Mallory — MIA win probability +7.4 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:15: J'Mar Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 47 — LT win probability +15.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:55MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:18MIA 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:06LT 4th & 13 at LT 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52MIA 4th & 20 at LT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:09MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:19LT 4th & 7 at LT 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:29MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−3.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:49LT 4th & 5 at MIA 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:35MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09LT 4th & 10 at LT 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:35LT 4th & 8 at LT 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:09MIA 4th & 8 at MIA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:55LT 4th & 8 at LT 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−2.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:27MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−3.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:53LT 4th & 14 at MIA 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:03MIA 4th & 14 at LT 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:34LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 1:15LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4167% → 66%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
66.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+10
66.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 10 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.4%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
66.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
66.3%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+17
66.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 51 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 17 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1134% → 35%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+39
66.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 39 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-6
65.8%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Jared Griffith for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 16
OPP 38
-15
66.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LaTch 47Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 31
OWN 47
0
66.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 31
OWN 47
-9
66.1%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 40
OWN 38
0
65.5%
Brady Farlow punt for 51 yds, downed at the MiaFl 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 4:0766% → 66%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
66.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 15 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
66.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+2
66.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+11
65.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Michael Parrott for 11 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+4
65.8%
K.J. Osborn run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
65.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
66.3%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
65.9%
Jarren Williams run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
66.3%
Jarren Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 9
50
0
66.3%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 9
50
0
66.2%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 9
50
0
65.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds, downed at the LaTch 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:5534% → 34%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+18
65.9%
Justin Henderson run for 18 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.5%
Justin Henderson run for 9 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
64.9%
Justin Henderson run for 7 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
64.7%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-4
64.5%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
65.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+33
65.7%
Brady Farlow punt for 43 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 33 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:5167% → 65%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
66.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 9 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
67.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
67.0%
Jarren Williams sacked by Milton Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 14
OPP 41
0
66.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+9
65.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 9 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 5
OPP 32
-15
66.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 20
OPP 47
0
65.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 5:0435% → 46%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
64.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 9 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 1
OWN 18
0
64.1%
Justin Henderson run for no gain to the LaTch 18Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
64.5%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
64.1%
Justin Henderson run for 12 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
63.7%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 34Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
63.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Justin Henderson for 2 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+8
63.7%
J'Mar Smith run for 8 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
62.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Wayne ToussantSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
62.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Bobby Holly for 8 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+6
62.0%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
61.7%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+13
61.3%
Justin Henderson run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
53.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 26 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0656% → 54%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
56.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
55.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
54.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds , Smoke Harris returns for no gain to the LaTch 40 Smoke Harris fumbled, recovered by LaTch Jawaun Johnson MIAMI FL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Te'Cory Couch) to the LaTch 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4148% → 47%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
52.3%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
51.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
52.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Justin HendersonSimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+47
53.4%
Brady Farlow punt for 47 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 4:3153% → 49%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
53.4%
Tate Martell run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
53.3%
Tate Martell run for no gain to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+7
52.0%
Tate Martell pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 7 yds to the MiaFl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
52.3%
Tate Martell sacked by Connor Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-5
52.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 16
OWN 16
+3
51.8%
Tate Martell run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-3
49.9%
Tate Martell sacked by Ezekiel Barnett for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+22
49.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 53 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 22 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2054% → 53%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
46.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
45.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
45.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
46.9%
Brady Farlow punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:0650% → 48%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
50.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
50.1%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
49.4%
Jarren Williams run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
48.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2156% → 54%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
44.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
44.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+15
46.5%
Brady Farlow punt for 46 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 15 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0148% → 51%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
48.1%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 21 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
50.9%
Jarren Williams run for 12 yds to the LaTch 40 Jarren Williams fumbled, recovered by LaTch Darryl LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0455% → 57%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.5%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
45.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 17 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
42.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Justin Henderson for 1 yd to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
42.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Justin Henderson for 1 yd to the LaTch 45Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
41.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Malik StanleySimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
43.1%
Brady Farlow punt for 33 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the MiaFl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1944% → 42%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
44.1%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 12 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
44.6%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
44.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
43.2%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
41.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 45 yds , Smoke Harris returns for no gain to the LaTch 19 Smoke Harris fumbled, recovered by LaTchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1058% → 56%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
42.5%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the LaTch 10Similar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+2
42.2%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+9
42.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 9 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
43.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
44.1%
Brady Farlow punt for 46 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:0843% → 39%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
43.1%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 5
OWN 38
+7
45.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
44.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
45.0%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-4
42.2%
Jarren Williams sacked by Connor Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
39.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cee Jay Powell at the LaTch 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 6:1561% → 67%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
38.6%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+17
37.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 17 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
34.3%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+1
34.1%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
33.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
50
+2
31.7%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+14
30.7%
Wayne Toussant run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
29.7%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-4
29.1%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 13
OPP 37
-1
30.3%
J'Mar Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
33.5%
Brady Farlow punt for 30 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3032% → 31%
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
32.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
31.4%
Jarren Williams pass intercepted Trey Baldwin return for no gain to the MiaFl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1276% → 75%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
24.2%
J'Mar Smith run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
23.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+3
23.5%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+9
24.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 9 yds to the MiaFl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
22.2%
Justin Henderson run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
22.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Griffin HebertSimilar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+39
24.7%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Gilbert Frierson return for 34 yds to the LaTch 0 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:5735% → 26%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
34.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 3 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
35.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+12
31.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mark Pope for 12 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
34.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+1
30.7%
Robert Burns run for 1 yd to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 14
OPP 39
0
30.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
28.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
26.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:0178% → 86%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
21.7%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 12Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+3
21.7%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+19
21.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Malik Stanley for 19 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
18.9%
Smoke Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
15.8%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
15.4%
Justin Henderson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
13.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Israel TuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23INT
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0221% → 25%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
20.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 12 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
21.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
21.4%
N'Kosi Perry run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
50
+7
25.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Aaron Roberson return for 7 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:0090% → 98%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
9.6%
J'Mar Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+16
9.1%
Smoke Harris run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
7.8%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+26
4.3%
J'Mar Smith run for 26 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
1.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+8
1.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 8 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
1.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
1.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Will Mallory for 17 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
1.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:15
J'Mar Smith run for 3 yds to the LaTch 47
-15.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:00
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 3 yds to the LaTch 47
+10.2
TD · Q2 9:34
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 26 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com