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UCF

UCF 48 at Marshall 25

MRSH
2019 · Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl · Dec 23, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFUMBLETDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+0.7MRSH 3.9%Justin Rohrwasser 50 yd FG GOODAWAY 45 - HOME 25 · Q3 1:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:08 · Justin Rohrwasser 50 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior−12.0Home team on offense−33.9Score differential−19.2Garbage-time factor−12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:28: Darriel Mack Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Micah Abraham return for 75 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:33: Isaiah Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:10: Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +5.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:51: Isaiah Green pass complete to Willie Johnson for 70 yds for a TD (Isaiah Green pass to Obi Obialo for Two-Point Conversion) — MRSH win probability +9.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:39: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:41UCF 4th & 16 at UCF 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:59UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:04MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 20, down 14
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:23UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:52MRSH 4th & 21 at MRSH 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:43UCF 4th & 3 at MRSH 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−1.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:13MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00UCF 4th & 4 at MRSH 19, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:50UCF 4th & 7 at MRSH 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:08MRSH 4th & 13 at UCF 33, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:41UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 44, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:01UCF 4th & 13 at MRSH 13, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:50MRSH 4th & 8 at UCF 28, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:04UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:12UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:28MRSH Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:50UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:33MRSH Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:10UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:51MRSH Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:39UCF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5114% → 14%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
14.2%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
14.4%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+39
14.4%
Isaiah Green pass intercepted for a TD Richie Grant return for 39 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+45
14.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 45 yds Armani Levias fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:4985% → 85%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
14.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 3 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
14.6%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+18
14.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 18 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-12
14.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-12 Yards) to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+2
14.7%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-3
14.9%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Koby Cumberlander for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 16
OWN 45
0
15.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
15.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0215% → 15%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
15.1%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Armani LeviasSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
15.1%
Isaiah Green run for 1 yd to the Marsh 22Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
15.2%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
15.2%
Robert LeFevre punt for 43 yds , Marlon Williams returns for no gain to the UCF 35 Marlon Williams fumbled, recovered by UCF Jeremiah Jean-BaptisteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:1785% → 86%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
15.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 8 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
15.2%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
15.3%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
15.3%
Otis Anderson run for 26 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
15.3%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
14.5%
Greg McCrae run for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6FUMBLE TD
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5315% → 13%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
14.6%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+17
14.7%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
15.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 7 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+11
15.2%
Brenden Knox run for 11 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+45
12.7%
Talik Keaton run for a loss of 15 yards Talik Keaton fumbled, recovered by UCF Tre'Mon Morris-Brash , return for 45 yds (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7FUMBLE
16 plays · 59 yds · 7:0312% → 12%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
12.3%
Brenden Knox run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
12.2%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
12.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 10 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
12.1%
Isaiah Green run for 12 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
12.4%
Brenden Knox run for 11 yds to the MARSHALL 41 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 9
OWN 49
+2
12.3%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
12.3%
Gaines, Xavier rush for no gain to the UCF49, PENALTY UCF holding 8 yards to the UCF41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
12.2%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
12.0%
Brenden Knox run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+11
11.9%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Obi Obialo for 11 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
12.1%
Alex Thomson run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+10
12.0%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Obi Obialo for 10 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
12.0%
Alex Thomson run for 5 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
11.7%
Alex Thomson run for no gain to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-6
11.5%
Brenden Knox run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 16 Brenden Knox fumbled, forced by Aaron Robinson, recovered by UCF Antwan CollierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8INT TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:1590% → 86%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
10.1%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 11 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
10.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
9.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+8
9.7%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
9.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
9.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
9.5%
Mack Jr., Darriel pass incomplete, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference 15 yards to the MARSHALL28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
9.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 9 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
9.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-10
9.4%
Thompson, Bentavious rush for 19 yards to the MARSHALL0, PENALTY UCF holding 10 yards to the MARSHALL29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+75
14.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass intercepted for a TD Micah Abraham return for 75 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:1586% → 86%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
14.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 20 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
13.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
13.6%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
13.7%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
14.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4714% → 14%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
14.4%
Isaiah Green run for 6 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
14.6%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Broc ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
14.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Armani LeviasSimilar
Q2 10:04
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+13
14.3%
Robert LeFevre punt for 48 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 13 yds to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3586% → 86%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
13.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
13.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
13.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
13.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:2614% → 14%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
14.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
14.3%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+5
14.2%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
14.4%
Brenden Knox run for no gain to the Marsh 23Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-13
14.0%
Isaiah Green sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 13 yards to the Marsh 10Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 23
OWN 10
+2
13.8%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 21
OWN 12
+8
13.8%
Robert LeFevre punt for 46 yds , Marlon Williams returns for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5687% → 86%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
50
+3
13.0%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
13.0%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+2
13.1%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
13.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0215% → 14%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
14.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 39Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+1
13.9%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+8
13.7%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 8 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 5
OWN 48
-5
14.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 43Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
13.9%
Robert LeFevre punt for 51 yds, downed at the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15END OF HALF
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:5786% → 91%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
13.8%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+45
13.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for 45 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
12.7%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the UCF 47 UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+25
13.1%
Greg McCrae run for 25 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
11.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+4
12.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+13
11.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 13 yds to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
11.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 2 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
11.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 7 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-3
11.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 19Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
9.3%
Dylan Barnas 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:0589% → 94%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.7%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
10.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 17 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
9.9%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
9.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+13
10.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 13 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
10.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
9.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
9.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+35
6.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 35 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:056% → 13%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.9%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
5.9%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 32Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+24
5.9%
Brenden Knox run for 9 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
6.1%
Willie Johnson run for 25 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
6.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 12 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
5.7%
Brenden Knox run for 4 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.6%
Isaiah Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1291% → 98%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.3%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
9.2%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
9.4%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
8.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+54
8.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 46 yds to the MARSHALL 16 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Roughing Passer (8 Yards) to the Marsh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
8.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the Marsh 7Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
8.1%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the Marsh 3Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the Marsh 3Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
11.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Willie Johnson for 70 yds for a TD (Isaiah Green pass to Obi Obialo for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
2.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21FG
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:114% → 4%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
4.0%
Brenden Knox run for 7 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
4.1%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
4.0%
Isaiah Green run for 3 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
3.7%
Brenden Knox run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-2
3.7%
Isaiah Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 46 Isaiah Green fumbled, recovered by Marsh Isaiah GreenSimilar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+16
3.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 16 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
3.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-7
3.7%
Isaiah Green sacked by Nate Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 22
OPP 42
+3
3.4%
Isaiah Green run for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 19
OPP 39
+6
3.2%
Brenden Knox run for 6 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
3.9%
Justin Rohrwasser 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1798% → 98%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
2.3%
Otis Anderson run for 18 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
2.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
2.0%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
2.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+22
2.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 46 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 22 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23INT
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:333% → 3%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
3.3%
Isaiah Green run for 13 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
2.9%
Isaiah Green pass intercepted Antwan Collier return for 34 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24FG
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:4498% → 99%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
1.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Greg McCrae for 5 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-10
1.9%
UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+11
1.9%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 11 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+6
1.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 6 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
1.7%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+1
1.6%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the Marsh 16Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+15
1.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 15 yds to the Marsh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-14
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the Marsh 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCF Darriel Mack Jr.Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+2
1.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
1.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
1.0%
Dylan Barnas 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 48 yds · 4:052% → 1%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
1.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+5
1.6%
Xavier Gaines run for 5 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
1.6%
Xavier Gaines run for 8 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+6
1.5%
Xavier Gaines run for 6 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
1.1%
Brenden Knox run for 1 yd to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
1.1%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+9
1.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 9 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.1%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Xavier GainesSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+22
1.1%
Brenden Knox run for 22 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
1.3%
Brenden Knox run for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
1.3%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
1.1%
Isaiah Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 8
OPP 28
0
1.0%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Armani LeviasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 71 yds · 4:0099% → 100%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
0.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+2
0.5%
Trilion Coles run for 2 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
0.4%
Nate Evans run for 9 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
0.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
0.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Kyle Benkel for 4 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+38
0.3%
Trilion Coles run for 38 yds to the Marsh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.3%
Nate Evans run for 1 yd to the Marsh 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:51
Isaiah Green pass complete to Willie Johnson for 70 yds for a TD (Isaiah Green pass to Obi Obialo for Two-Point Conversion)
+9
TD · Q3 6:39
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)
-9
TD · Q3 9:33
Isaiah Green run for 3 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com