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SMU

SMU 28 at Florida Atlantic 52

FAU
2019 · Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl · Dec 21, 2019 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:11 · Matthew Hayball punt for 60 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−17.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:48: James Charles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +9.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:12: Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +15.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:00: James Charles run for 15 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +10.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:36: Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 13 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +14.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:23: Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 18 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +11.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:49SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:27FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:45SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:11FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:28SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:59FAU 4th & 5 at SMU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:58SMU 4th & 5 at FAU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:48FAU 4th & 13 at SMU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    40.1%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:55SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:26SMU 4th & 3 at FAU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:30FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:46SMU 4th & 9 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:31FAU 4th & 7 at SMU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−8.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:32SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:18SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:52FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 40, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:11SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:09FAU 4th & 9 at SMU 20, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:17FAU 4th & 5 at SMU 23, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:11FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:05SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:48FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:12SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:00FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:36FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:23FAU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:08SMU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:17FAU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:07SMU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5269% → 68%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
31.5%
James Proche pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
31.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 5 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
31.9%
Trevor Denbow punt for 55 yds, downed at the FlAtl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0832% → 32%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
32.0%
BJ Emmons run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-1
32.3%
BJ Emmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
32.3%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
32.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 58 yds, downed at the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2568% → 67%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
32.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+12
32.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 12 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
32.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
32.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 3
50
0
32.7%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 3
50
-5
32.9%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Beau Morris) to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
33.3%
Trevor Denbow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1833% → 34%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
33.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 8 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-3
33.6%
Chris Robison sacked by Richard McBryde for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+3
33.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 3 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
33.5%
Matthew Hayball punt for 60 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:3766% → 65%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
33.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
33.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
33.9%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+16
34.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 16 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
33.7%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
33.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Myron Gailliard) to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+3
34.3%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
34.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 12
OWN 47
+2
35.1%
Trevor Denbow punt for 29 yds , Dante Cousart returns for 2 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 3:1135% → 42%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
35.1%
BJ Emmons run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
35.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 8 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
36.2%
BJ Emmons run for 4 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
36.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 12 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
36.5%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
36.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
36.5%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+12
36.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Mitchell for 12 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
37.3%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
37.4%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+7
37.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 7 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
37.9%
BJ Emmons run for 5 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.2%
BJ Emmons run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 1:4560% → 58%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
40.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
39.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
40.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 28 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
39.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
39.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
40.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-4
41.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Beau Morris) to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
42.3%
Kevin Robledo 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:2144% → 44%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
43.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 6 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
44.0%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+5
43.5%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
44.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 18 yds Brandon Robinson fumbled, recovered by SMU Ar'mani Johnson , return for 22 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:5759% → 64%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
41.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+15
42.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
41.6%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+4
41.6%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marcel Southall) to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
41.6%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
41.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.2%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:5939% → 40%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.4%
Chris Robison run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
39.7%
Chris Robison run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
40.1%
James Charles run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
41.0%
James Charles run for 18 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
41.9%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-3
41.9%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 13
OPP 44
0
40.9%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
39.8%
Matthew Hayball punt for 42 yds, downed at the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3460% → 59%
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
39.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+2
39.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+4
40.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to CJ Sanders for 4 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
40.8%
Trevor Denbow punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:0243% → 54%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
43.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 16 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
43.9%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 1
OPP 32
+3
44.8%
BJ Emmons run for 3 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
44.9%
Chris Robison run for 11 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
45.3%
Chris Robison run for no gain to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
45.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to BJ Emmons for 2 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+15
44.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 15 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.0%
James Charles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
18 plays · 55 yds · 5:0850% → 62%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
49.7%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-5
49.5%
SMU Penalty, False Start (James Proche) to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+16
51.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 16 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
49.6%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+12
50.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 12 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
49.2%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
49.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
50.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
49.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+7
51.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 7 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+3
54.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
52.3%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:0446% → 61%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to BJ Emmons for 11 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
46.0%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Delontae Scott) to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+8
47.5%
BJ Emmons run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
47.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 8 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+6
48.6%
BJ Emmons run for 6 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
48.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to James Brunson for 8 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+14
50.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 14 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
60.9%
James Charles run for 15 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
58.9%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Rashad Smith return for 22 yds to the SMU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
72.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 13 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17END OF HALF
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:2030% → 30%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
70.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 15 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
69.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 3
50
0
69.3%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 3
50
+10
70.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
70.1%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1771% → 70%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
70.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
71.2%
Chris Robison run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q3 13:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
71.4%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
70.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 40 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2829% → 27%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
70.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 18 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
69.2%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+2
70.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 9
50
0
71.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to CJ SandersSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 9
50
0
72.9%
Trevor Denbow punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:0675% → 77%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
74.8%
BJ Emmons run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+29
75.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to James Brunson for 29 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
76.6%
BJ Emmons run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+23
76.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to James Brunson for 23 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
77.2%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
77.9%
BJ Emmons run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
78.1%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+41
77.0%
Vladimir Rivas 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:4924% → 23%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
75.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 14 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
74.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
75.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
75.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+3
77.3%
Trevor Denbow punt for 36 yds , Dante Cousart returns for 3 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:5979% → 94%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+26
79.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 26 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
80.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 13 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
80.7%
Chris Robison run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-3
82.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+2
82.0%
James Charles run for 2 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+12
83.0%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
94.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 18 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:507% → 1%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
93.0%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 20Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-5
93.1%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 17
OWN 15
0
93.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+18
93.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 18 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
94.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 10 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.2%
Shane Buechele run for no gain to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 9 yards Ke'Mon Freeman fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Rashad Smith for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:221% → 1%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
99.4%
Trevor Denbow punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.5%
BJ Emmons run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
99.5%
James Charles run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
99.5%
James Charles run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 1:52
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Matthew Hayball punt for 40 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 5 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27FG
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
99.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 20 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.7%
BJ Emmons run for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.7%
BJ Emmons run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-18
99.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for a loss of 18 yards to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for no gain to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.8%
Chris Robison run for 1 yd to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
99.8%
Vladimir Rivas 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:590% → 2%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to CJ Sanders for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 1 yd to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+42
99.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 42 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 2Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman pass complete to Ryan Becker for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 29TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:3399% → 100%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.7%
BJ Emmons run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
98.8%
BJ Emmons run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.0%
Nick Tronti run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+1
99.1%
Nick Tronti run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
99.1%
Nick Tronti pass complete to John Raine for 5 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.3%
Nick Tronti run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+17
99.3%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for 17 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
99.4%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+3
99.4%
Nick Tronti run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.5%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Javion Posey for 23 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 1:530% → 1%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
100.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to CJ Sanders for 10 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
100.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 12 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
100.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to CJ Sanders for 15 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
100.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
99.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 22 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 31Uncategorized
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.7%
Daniel Leconte run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:12
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q2 0:36
Chris Robison pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 13 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
+14.1
TD · Q3 6:23
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 18 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
+11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com