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CMU

Central Michigan 11 at San Diego State 48

SDSU
2019 · New Mexico Bowl · Dec 21, 2019 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLEEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:22 · Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+10.3Garbage-time factor+0.3Blowout margin−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:46: Matt Araiza 48 Yd Field Goal — SDSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:26: Jesse Matthews 74 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:51: Jordan Byrd 2 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:24: TJ Sullivan 29 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (Matt Araiza Kick) — SDSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:13: Kobe Lewis 66 Yd Run (Quinten Dormady Pass to Kalil Pimpleton for Two-Point Conversion) — CMU win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:40CMU 4th & 11 at SDSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:41SDSU 4th & 5 at CMU 41, up 4
    Close callPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:54CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 29, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:22SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:32CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 44, down 4
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:46SDSU 4th & 12 at CMU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:51CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:22SDSU 4th & 7 at CMU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:24SDSU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 17
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:21SDSU 4th & 5 at CMU 41, up 17
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−1.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:04CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:58CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:27CMU 4th & 7 at SDSU 35, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:04CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 30, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:07SDSU 4th & 7 at CMU 42, up 30
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:11CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 29, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:36SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 28, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:35CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:58SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 39, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 12:34SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:26SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:51SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:24SDSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:13CMU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:42SDSU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3837% → 37%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.1%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 6 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 14:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.1%
Quinten Dormady pass intercepted Kyahva Tezino return for no gain to the CMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:3663% → 64%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
63.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
63.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+2
63.2%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chase Jasmin for 2 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
64.1%
Jesse Matthews 22 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:2136% → 37%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+61
63.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 61 yds to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
63.5%
Ward, Jonathan rush for 1 yard to the SANDIEGOST13, PENALTY CENTMICH holding 10 yards to the SANDIEGOST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+9
63.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 9 yds to the SDSt 15Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
63.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 11
OPP 15
0
63.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
63.4%
Ryan Tice 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:3963% → 64%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
63.3%
Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
63.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+11
63.7%
Chance Bell run for 11 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
63.9%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
63.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Zachary Thomas) to the SDSt 49Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-2
63.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Chance Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 47Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+7
63.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 7 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+5
63.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
63.8%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3136% → 36%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
63.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
63.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Mark Patritto for 5 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
63.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for no gain to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
64.3%
Brady Buell punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:2764% → 63%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
63.7%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+16
63.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 16 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
64.2%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
-15
63.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Alex Wilson) to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 29
OWN 17
0
63.8%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the SDSt 17Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 29
OWN 17
+11
63.4%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Parker Houston for 11 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
62.8%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2837% → 37%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
63.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
62.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
62.8%
Quinten Dormady run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
63.3%
Brady Buell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:4464% → 67%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
63.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
64.0%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
63.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 15 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
64.8%
Ethan Dedeaux run for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
65.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
65.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 19 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
65.9%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
65.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
64.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chase JasminSimilar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
67.4%
Matt Araiza 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3932% → 31%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.8%
Quinten Dormady run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
68.0%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.8%
Brady Buell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:2369% → 72%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
68.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 12 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
69.8%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 38Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+23
69.3%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to BJ Busbee for 23 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
70.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-2
70.6%
Chase Jasmin run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+13
69.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 13 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
71.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 11 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
72.1%
Chase Jasmin run for 3 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
72.4%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Daniel BellingerSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
71.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
71.8%
Matt Araiza 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2128% → 27%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
71.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
72.8%
Quinten Dormady pass intercepted Tariq Thompson return for no gain to the SDSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
83.3%
Jesse Matthews 74 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13INT
17 plays · 73 yds · 4:1919% → 19%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
80.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by CMich Quinten DormadySimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
81.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 10 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.5%
Quinten Dormady run for no gain to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
81.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 5 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-9
82.0%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Kyahva Tezino for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 14
OWN 34
+15
83.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
81.8%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
82.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+30
83.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 30 yds to the SDSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
80.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-4
80.9%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Cameron Thomas and Seyddrick Lakalaka for a loss of 4 yards to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+21
83.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 21 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.2%
Quinten Dormady pass intercepted, touchback. Luq Barcoo return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:2987% → 86%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
87.2%
Chase Jasmin run for 23 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
87.6%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
87.5%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 3
50
0
87.7%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Chaz CollinsSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 3
50
+43
85.7%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 37 yds, downed at the SANDIEGOST 13 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the CMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:1515% → 15%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
84.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+13
84.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 13 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:3485% → 85%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
84.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 29 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
85.7%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
85.9%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 4 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
85.3%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Kobe SmithSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
84.6%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0614% → 13%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-2
86.2%
Quinten Dormady run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
86.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
87.4%
Brady Buell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:0988% → 95%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
87.7%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Kobe Smith for 18 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
88.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 19 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
89.9%
Agnew, Ryan pass complete to Dedeaux, Ethan for 8 yards to the CENTMICH13, PENALTY SANDIEGOST ineligible downfield on kick off-setting, PENALTY CENTMICH Personal Foul, Targeting (Reid, Willie) off-setting, NO PLAY. Reid ejected.Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
90.0%
Agnew, Ryan pass incomplete to Bellinger, Daniel, PENALTY CENTMICH pass interference 15 yards to the CENTMICH6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST.Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
90.4%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.2%
Jordan Byrd 2 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:535% → 5%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
94.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-12 Yards) to the CMich 13Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
94.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 14Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
95.0%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
95.0%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
95.1%
Brady Buell punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:3195% → 100%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
95.4%
Ryan Agnew sacked by George Douglas for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+3
95.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+15
95.6%
Agnew, Ryan pass incomplete to Richardson, Isaiah, PENALTY CENTMICH pass interference (McNary, Dishon) 15 yards to the CENTMICH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST.Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-13
95.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the CMich 23 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 23
OPP 38
+9
96.0%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to TJ Sullivan for 9 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+29
99.5%
TJ Sullivan 29 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:071% → 4%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.1%
Quinten Dormady run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
99.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 8 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
95.8%
Kobe Lewis 66 Yd Run (Quinten Dormady Pass to Kalil Pimpleton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4597% → 98%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
96.6%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
96.8%
Ryan Agnew pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 9 yds to the SDSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
97.0%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
97.5%
Ryan Agnew pass intercepted Alonzo McCoy return for no gain to the SDSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:433% → 3%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kobe LewisSimilar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
96.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
96.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-7
97.0%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Darren Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 24TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:3298% → 100%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+56
97.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 56 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Chase Jasmin 2 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:360% → 0%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Brady Buell punt for 48 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for no gain to the SDSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 26PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:56100% → 100%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
99.7%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-10
99.7%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 11Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+30
99.7%
Kaegun Williams run for 15 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 5 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-5
99.8%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Kyle Spalding) to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
99.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+7
99.8%
Chase Jasmin run for 7 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
99.8%
Jordan Byrd run for 9 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-6
99.8%
Daniel Bellinger run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Ryan Agnew pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Montrae BraswellSimilar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 1 yd to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Daniel Richardson run for 3 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Brady Buell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 28Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 11
OWN 28
-3
99.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 53 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 25 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the CMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29FUMBLE TD
1 play · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 11 yds Kobe Lewis fumbled, recovered by SDSt Darren Hall , return for 20 yds, (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Grady VazquezSimilar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Brady Buell punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 31FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Zidane Thomas run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-3
99.9%
Zidane Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Zidane Thomas run for no gain to the SDSt 39Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 12
OWN 39
-2
99.9%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 53 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 6 Kalil Pimpleton fumbled, recovered by SDStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 8Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:26
Jesse Matthews 74 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (Matt Araiza Kick)
+10.5
TD · Q3 9:51
Jordan Byrd 2 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)
+4.8
TD · Q3 6:24
TJ Sullivan 29 Yd pass from Ryan Agnew (Matt Araiza Kick)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com