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USU

Utah State 41 at Kent State 51

KENT
2019 · Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl · Dec 20, 2019 · Toyota Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:00 · Dustin Crum run for 2 yds to the UthSt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior−11.0Home team on offense+4.4Garbage-time factor+1.2Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:52: Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 17 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +18.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:31: Will Matthews run for 4 yds for a TD (W. Matthews Run For Two-point Conversion) — KENT win probability +34.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:48: Deven Thompkins run for 57 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +27.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:36: Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +24.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:06: Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 11 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +30.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 10:00USU 4th & 3 at USU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:50KENT 4th & 2 at USU 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:03USU 4th & 3 at KENT 24, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−4.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:00KENT 4th & 4 at USU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:40KENT 4th & 1 at USU 49, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:07KENT 4th & 5 at USU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:58USU 4th & 28 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:41KENT 4th & 11 at USU 12, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−9.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:27USU 4th & 10 at KENT 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:00KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 41, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:57USU 4th & 1 at USU 45, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:56KENT 4th & 18 at USU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:56KENT 4th & 1 at USU 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−10.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−31.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19USU 4th & 18 at USU 17, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:02USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:10KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:37KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:24USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:52USU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:31KENT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:48USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:36KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:06USU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:56KENT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5366% → 66%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
34.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
34.7%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
34.8%
Jordan Love run for 8 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+15
34.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 15 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
34.9%
Jordan Nathan run for 12 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
34.9%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-2
35.0%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+9
35.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 9 yds to the KntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
35.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 9 yds to the KntSt 4Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
34.3%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 0:5035% → 36%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
34.6%
Dustin Crum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
34.7%
Will Matthews run for 3 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+78
35.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 78 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5664% → 64%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
35.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
35.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 9 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-2
35.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
36.3%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Raymond James at the KntSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:1837% → 43%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
36.5%
Dustin Crum run for 2 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
36.5%
Will Matthews run for 1 yd to the KntSt 26Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+12
36.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Adam Dulka for 12 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
37.1%
Will Matthews run for 5 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
37.7%
Dustin Crum run for 2 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
37.7%
Dustin Crum run for 4 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
38.1%
Kavious Price run for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 43Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 16
OWN 43
+5
37.8%
Xavier Williams run for 5 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
38.8%
Dustin Crum run for 11 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+23
37.9%
Dustin Crum run for 23 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
39.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 16 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.7%
Xavier Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:1459% → 58%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
41.5%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
41.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Taylor ComptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0243% → 45%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
43.3%
Dustin Crum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+12
43.4%
Will Matthews run for 12 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
43.9%
Will Matthews run for 1 yd to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+3
44.3%
Will Matthews run for 3 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+4
44.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 4 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
44.9%
Matthew Trickett 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3256% → 56%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
44.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
50
+4
43.9%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+15
44.1%
KENT ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Dominic Hill) to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
43.9%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the KntSt 27Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
43.9%
Gerold Bright run for 5 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-2
45.1%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 24Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
44.5%
Dominik Eberle 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:5746% → 49%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
46.0%
Xavier Williams run for 5 yds to the KntSt 27Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+5
46.4%
Xavier Williams run for 5 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
47.0%
Xavier Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 31Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+5
47.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Woody Barrett for 5 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+14
47.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
50
+7
49.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 7 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
49.7%
Dustin Crum run for 3 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
49.9%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoySimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
50.0%
Xavier Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+3
49.8%
Will Matthews run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+2
49.2%
Dustin Crum run for 2 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3152% → 61%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
48.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
48.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 13 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
47.6%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
47.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 9 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
47.5%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
47.7%
Jordan Nathan run for 2 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+9
48.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 9 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
38.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 25 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2045% → 45%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
45.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Will Matthews for 5 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
45.7%
Dustin Crum run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 2
50
+1
45.5%
Will Matthews run for 1 yd to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
44.7%
Derek Adams punt for 41 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for no gain to the UthSt 8 Jordan Nathan fumbled, recovered by KntSt Elvis HinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1347% → 50%
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
47.4%
Dustin Crum run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 10Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
47.7%
Dustin Crum run for 5 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.3%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoySimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
49.8%
Matthew Trickett 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 4:0252% → 50%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
47.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+26
47.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 26 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
45.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
46.0%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+5
46.6%
Jordan Love run for 5 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
45.4%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 37Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 15
OPP 37
-10
47.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Demytrick Ali'ifua) to the KntSt 47Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 25
OPP 47
+1
48.1%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the KntSt 46Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 24
OPP 46
-4
49.1%
Jordan Love sacked by Qwuantrezz Knight and Theo Majette for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 28
50
0
50.2%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Raymond James at the KntSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 67 yds · 0:5349% → 60%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
49.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 5 yds to the KntSt 19Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
49.2%
Dustin Crum run for 7 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
49.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Joachim Bangda for 7 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+10
51.1%
Dustin Crum run for 10 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
51.8%
Dustin Crum run for 5 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+30
53.2%
Dustin Crum run for 30 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
54.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 3 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+36
60.4%
Matthew Trickett 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:5960% → 66%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
60.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 14 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
61.0%
Joachim Bangda run for 5 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
61.5%
Kavious Price run for 9 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
61.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 14 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
62.2%
Joachim Bangda run for 1 yd to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
62.2%
Dustin Crum run for 1 yd to the UthSt 9Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 8
OPP 9
-3
61.6%
Dustin Crum sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+29
65.8%
Matthew Trickett 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:3835% → 54%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.8%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
63.2%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
64.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 3 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
63.9%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+4
64.1%
Jordan Love run for 4 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
63.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+1
62.9%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
63.7%
Jordan Love run for 9 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+1
62.1%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
62.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 5 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+8
65.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 8 yds to the KntSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
65.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 3 yds to the KntSt 17Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
46.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 17 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:4754% → 59%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.5%
Dustin Crum run for 7 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
55.5%
Will Matthews run for 4 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
54.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 1 yd to the KntSt 37Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+14
54.5%
Dustin Crum run for 14 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
58.2%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 9 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-5
58.5%
KENT ST Penalty, False Start (Nathan Monnin) to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+17
58.5%
Woody Barrett run for 17 yds to the UthSt 28 Woody Barrett fumbled, forced by Siaosi Mariner, recovered by UthSt Nick Heninger , return for no gain to the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:3147% → 57%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
52.7%
KENT ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dominic Hill) to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+12
50.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 12 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
50.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Jacob South) to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+8
52.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 8 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+13
49.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 13 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
49.1%
Jordan Love sacked by TEAM for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 40Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+12
49.3%
Gerold Bright run for 12 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
47.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 3 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-3
47.8%
Jordan Love sacked by Sekou Diaby for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
50.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
43.5%
Dominik Eberle 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0045% → 45%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
44.7%
Will Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 31Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+8
44.0%
Will Matthews run for 8 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
46.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 2 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
45.4%
Derek Adams punt for 36 yds, downed at the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5356% → 58%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
43.9%
Gerold Bright run for 13 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
42.6%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
39.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
40.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
41.9%
Christopher Bartolic punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:0949% → 83%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+53
48.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 53 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.9%
Will Matthews run for 4 yds for a TD (W. Matthews Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 0:3227% → 53%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
73.4%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
73.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+57
46.6%
Deven Thompkins run for 57 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:0454% → 85%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
54.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 15 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
57.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (DJ Williams) to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
59.6%
Will Matthews run for 3 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+16
59.8%
Dustin Crum run for 16 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
59.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 1 yd to the UthSt 14Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+13
59.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 13 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.1%
Will Matthews run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.3%
Antwan Dixon run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:4422% → 23%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
78.1%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+15
77.8%
KENT ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jamal Parker) to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
77.0%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 44 Gerold Bright fumbled, forced by Mandela Lawrence-Burke, recovered by KntSt Alex HoagSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:4486% → 90%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
86.3%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Kavious PriceSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
86.2%
Antwan Dixon run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+10
86.0%
Dustin Crum run for 10 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
87.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Will Matthews for 19 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
88.4%
KENT ST Penalty, False Start (Nate Warnock) to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-1
88.7%
Dustin Crum run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 16
OPP 18
-6
89.3%
Dustin Crum sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 22
OPP 24
+4
89.4%
Joachim Bangda run for 4 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 18
OPP 20
+37
90.4%
Matthew Trickett 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:449% → 42%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
91.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
50
+18
89.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 18 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
88.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
88.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 6 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
89.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 6 yds to the KntSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
88.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 15 yds to the KntSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
88.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the KntSt 11Similar
Q4 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
88.9%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Siaosi MarinerSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
58.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 11 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26TD
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:4487% → 96%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
87.4%
Will Matthews run for 6 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
87.8%
Will Matthews run for 2 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
88.4%
Will Matthews run for 1 yd to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+4
95.9%
Dustin Crum run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:324% → 3%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
96.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-4
96.9%
Jordan Love sacked by Alex Hoag for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
97.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+9
97.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Travis Boman for 9 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-1
96.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:31
Will Matthews run for 4 yds for a TD (W. Matthews Run For Two-point Conversion)
+34.2
TD · Q4 3:06
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 11 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-30.5
TD · Q4 12:48
Deven Thompkins run for 57 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-27.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com