2019 · Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl · Dec 20, 2019 · Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreBUF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:25 · Alex McNulty 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:33: Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:25: Alex McNulty 31 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +6.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06: Timeout BUFFALO, clock 00:06 — BUF win probability +7.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:22: Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:20: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 51 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CLT win probability +5.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%average punt
- Q1 9:12CLT 4th & 1 at BUF 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.3%70% to convertField goal33.8%−0.540% to makePunt33.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:44CLT 4th & 6 at BUF 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call34.4%81% to makePunt31.6%−2.8average punt
- Q1 3:44BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snapGo for it65.3%−0.922% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.2%average punt
- Q2 15:00CLT 4th & 1 at BUF 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.7%71% to convertField goal33.5%−1.264% to makePunt30.2%−4.5average punt
- Q2 3:33BUF 4th & 1 at CLT 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.6%59% to convertField goal66.4%−2.394% to makePunt60.8%−7.9average punt
- Q2 1:25BUF 4th & 12 at CLT 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snapGo for it77.1%−1.520% to convertField goalTheir call78.6%84% to makePunt72.4%−6.2average punt
- Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 38, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snapGo for it81.6%−0.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.5%average punt
- Q3 12:44CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 43, down 17Close callWent for it · 18.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.8%average punt
- Q3 2:20BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 27, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snapGo for it93.1%−1.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.3%average punt
- Q4 10:50CLT 4th & 5 at BUF 15, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.639% to convertField goalTheir call5.3%83% to makePunt0.1%−5.2average punt
- Q4 3:56BUF 4th & 1 at CLT 16, up 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%71% to convertField goal95.7%−1.081% to makePunt93.1%−3.6average punt
- Q4 1:43CLT 4th & 2 at BUF 42, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%57% to convertField goal0.6%−0.130% to makePunt0.6%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 0 of 1BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 9:12BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.5%97% to makeGo for two65.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:33BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.8%97% to makeGo for two74.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:22BUF Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:20CLT Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick7.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call7.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:43BUF Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
36.8%
LEMAY, Benny rush for 10 yards to the CLT44 (HILL, Tyrone;WASHINGTON, Aapri), PENALTY CLT holding 10 yards to the CLT24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+4
36.8%
Connor Bowler punt for 39 yds , Antonio Nunn returns for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1162% → 64%
CLTDrive 3MISSED FG13 plays · 59 yds · 5:2837% → 37%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
36.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 29 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
37.8%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor Tucker, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
37.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+7
37.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 7 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
37.5%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Micaleous Elder CHARLOTTE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
CLTDrive 5DOWNS7 plays · 22 yds · 0:2238% → 37%
BUFDrive 6TD16 plays · 74 yds · 8:2664% → 76%
Q2 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
35.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 6 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
34.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 8 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
34.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jaret Patterson, broken up by Henry SeguraSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
34.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 23 yds to the Charl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
24.2%
Chris Reynolds pass intercepted James Patterson return for 20 yds to the Charl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FG5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5577% → 83%
Q2 3:20
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+5
22.9%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, offside defense (Alex Highsmith) to the Charl 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9FUMBLE5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q2 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
21.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Cameron Dollar for 6 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
21.5%
REYNOLDS, Chris pass incomplete to TUCKER, Victor, QB hurry by KOONCE, Malcolm, PENALTY UB roughing passer (KOONCE, Malcolm) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN CLT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
50
+3
22.8%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 44 Chris Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Buff Ledarius Mack , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the Charl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
16.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Marquavis Gibbs return for 34 yds to the Charl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
CLTDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q3 12:44
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+7
18.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Ryan Carriere for 7 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+5
18.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 5 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
18.7%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Victor Tucker, broken up by Ali AbbasSimilar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-1
19.3%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Devon Russell for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD8 plays · 43 yds · 3:4586% → 96%
CLTDrive 14TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:025% → 11%
BUFDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
6.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Marquill OsborneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16FG10 plays · 54 yds · 5:2610% → 12%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
10.2%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+25
9.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 25 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-1
10.0%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Eddie Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD22 plays · 75 yds · 9:0793% → 100%
Q4 10:50
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-15
6.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Carlton Todd) to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18END OF GAME9 plays · 31 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 6 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+19
0.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 10
50
+8
0.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 8 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+7
0.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 7 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-9
0.3%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:22
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-9.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:06
Timeout BUFFALO, clock 00:06
-7
TD · Q2 3:33
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-6.6