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M-OH

Miami (OH) 26 at Central Michigan 21

CMU
2019 · Week 15 · Dec 7, 2019 · Ford Field
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Quinten Dormady run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense−2.1Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:30: Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +11.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:05: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 31 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +10.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:38: Sam Sloman 33 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +12.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:06: Sam Sloman 48 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +6.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:24: Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +35.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:53CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:27CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:36M-OH 4th & 11 at CMU 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−1.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:46M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:52CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 19, tied
    Close callWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:26M-OH 4th & 14 at CMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:26CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:40M-OH 4th & 11 at M-OH 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:01M-OH 4th & 10 at CMU 46, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%−1.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    31.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:16CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:05M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:06CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:21M-OH 4th & 8 at CMU 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−0.9
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:48CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 22, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−2.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:38M-OH 4th & 15 at CMU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−5.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−17.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:06M-OH 4th & 4 at CMU 30, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−3.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:28M-OH 4th & 4 at CMU 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−5.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−26.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:13CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.2%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:59M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:46CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:30CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:05M-OH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:24CMU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:0132% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.4%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.9%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
67.9%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 14Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 14
OWN 14
-6
67.9%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Ivan Pace Jr. and Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 20
OWN 8
+8
67.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 8 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
67.8%
Brady Buell punt for 57 yds, downed at the MiaOh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
66.9%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-5
66.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+5
67.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
66.9%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the MiaOh 23 Brett Gabbert fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Brett GabbertSimilar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+13
67.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Davion Johnson for 13 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
66.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
65.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 9 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
65.9%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+5
65.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
65.9%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Kameron Butler and Doug Costin for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 18
OWN 19
0
65.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+7
65.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+15
65.5%
Brady Buell punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 45 , Maurice Thomas returns for 15 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
63.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 15 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
63.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
63.3%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-5
63.3%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+5
63.9%
Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
64.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 31 yds, downed at the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
14 plays · 90 yds · 7:0763% → 67%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
62.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 11 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
62.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
62.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 8 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
63.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
63.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+11
63.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 11 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
63.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 13 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
64.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 2 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
62.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 7 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
62.0%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
61.3%
Quinten Dormady run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
62.7%
Quinten Dormady run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
62.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+21
67.4%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 21 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
64.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Tyre SheltonSimilar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+2
65.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 54 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 2 yds to the CMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
65.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 1 yd to the CMich 16Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
65.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+3
64.7%
Quinten Dormady run for 3 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
64.3%
Oakley Lavallii run for no gain to the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5839% → 38%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
61.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to James Maye, broken up by Kyron McKinnie-HarperSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-4
61.4%
James Maye run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 14
OPP 23
0
63.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 14
OPP 23
+41
62.2%
Sam Sloman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
62.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
63.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (JaCorey Sullivan) to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
61.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+10
60.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 10 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
62.3%
Brady Buell punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Maurice Thomas at the MiaOh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
59.5%
Brett Gabbert run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
59.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (Jacques Bristol) to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
59.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
60.0%
Jaylon Bester run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
58.8%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-5
59.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 18
OWN 28
-3
59.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Tyre Shelton for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 25Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 21
OWN 25
+10
60.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+31
61.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 42 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 31 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:2762% → 71%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
62.1%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Andrew Sharp for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+24
61.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 24 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
63.1%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
63.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 5 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+7
59.8%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
61.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
61.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for no gain to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
71.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:2132% → 28%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
68.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 22 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
65.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete, broken up by Michael OliverSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
65.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to James MayeSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
67.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 10
OPP 46
-10
71.7%
AJ Mayer sacked by Troy Hairston for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
69.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
69.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
69.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Doug CostinSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
68.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+11
67.1%
Brady Buell punt for 38 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 11 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:0733% → 48%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+35
67.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 35 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
63.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
63.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+31
52.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 31 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4956% → 55%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
55.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
55.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Sterling WeatherfordSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
54.5%
Brady Buell punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
55.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 10 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
54.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 7 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-2
52.8%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
53.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
56.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
55.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
55.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+9
55.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 9 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
57.4%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+12
55.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 12 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 1
OWN 47
-4
58.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 6 yds to the CENTMICH 47 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (JaCorey Sullivan) to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
57.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Cecil SingletonSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+15
55.4%
Brady Buell punt for 35 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 15 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
50.5%
Brett Gabbert run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+15
49.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 15 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
48.2%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Cam Turner) to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
49.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+6
49.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 6 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+1
48.8%
Brett Gabbert run for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
51.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
52.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
52.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
51.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
50.3%
Brady Buell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Maurice Thomas at the MiaOh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 5:1852% → 67%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
48.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 22 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
44.9%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
45.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew HomerSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+5
47.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (Jacques Bristol) to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+13
45.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 13 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
43.0%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (Amir Siddiq) to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+8
42.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 8 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.2%
Jaylon Bester run for no gain to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
42.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack SorensonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+11
44.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 11 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-12
42.2%
Jalen Walker sacked by LaQuan Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
-1
42.6%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+5
45.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
33.0%
Sam Sloman 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 48 yds · 0:0041% → 50%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
41.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Da'Quaun Jamison for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+24
44.6%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Tony Poljan for 24 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
47.0%
DORMADY, Quinten pass incomplete to PIMPLETON, Kalil (Mike Brown), PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer (Kameron Butler) 15 yards to the MIAMI27, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
49.8%
Quinten Dormady pass intercepted Travion Banks return for 13 yds to the MiaOh 14 MIAMI OH Penalty, IB (Bart Baratti) to the MiaOh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:0170% → 89%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
30.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 4 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+10
30.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
29.2%
Brett Gabbert sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MIAMI21 (BROWN, Troy), PENALTY CMU personal foul (BROWN, Troy) 15 yards to the MIAMI40, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
26.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 13 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
25.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 7 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 3
OPP 40
-3
25.4%
Brett Gabbert sacked by George Douglas for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
26.1%
Jaylon Bester run for 7 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
25.5%
MIAMI OH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+4
25.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+5
25.6%
Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+2
25.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
11.3%
Sam Sloman 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4211% → 47%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
11.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Tyrone Scott) to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
11.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 9 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
11.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 19 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
13.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 11 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
14.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 15 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
17.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 6 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+8
11.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 8 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
11.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 8 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
11.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Emmanuel RugambaSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
47.2%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25FG
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:5686% → 96%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
13.9%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-1
14.0%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+5
13.6%
Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
3.8%
Sam Sloman 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:2210% → 10%
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
10.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
11.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
9.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+12
8.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 12 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
10.3%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott, broken up by Sterling WeatherfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:24
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+35.7
FG · Q4 11:38
Sam Sloman 33 yd FG GOOD
-12.6
TD · Q2 0:30
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 11 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com