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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreBAY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Jacob Zeno pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:59: Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 33 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +9.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:09: Nick Basquine 18 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Gabe Brkic Kick) — OU win probability +13.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:41: Jacob Zeno pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 81 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK) — BAY win probability +18.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- FG · Q4 3:25: John Mayers 27 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +14.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Rhamondre Stevenson run for 5 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK) — OU win probability +16.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9BAY made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 13:22OU 4th & 1 at OU 34, tiedClose callPunted · 74.3% before the snapGo for it74.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:52BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it26.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q1 7:57BAY 4th & 14 at BAY 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snapGo for it24.2%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q1 4:51OU 4th & 18 at BAY 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snapGo for it74.5%−0.612% to convertField goalTheir call75.1%62% to makePunt73.6%−1.5average punt
- Q1 3:25BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 47, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it23.8%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.1%average punt
- Q2 14:45OU 4th & 19 at OU 26, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snapGo for it74.3%−1.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%average punt
- Q2 12:27BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snapGo for it22.1%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%average punt
- Q2 10:20BAY 4th & 7 at OU 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.2% before the snapGo for it22.8%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call23.0%64% to makePunt19.9%−3.1average punt
- Q2 6:06OU 4th & 18 at OU 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.6% before the snapGo for it74.1%−1.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.1%average punt
- Q2 4:07BAY 4th & 14 at OU 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snapGo for it22.1%−0.819% to convertField goal22.2%−0.825% to makePuntTheir call22.9%average punt
- Q2 1:22OU 4th & 9 at OU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it63.5%−1.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.4%average punt
- Q2 0:08BAY 4th & 10 at OU 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snapGo for it35.5%−1.524% to convertField goalTheir call37.0%87% to makePunt32.3%−4.7average punt
- Q3 13:32BAY 4th & 9 at BAY 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snapGo for it38.2%−1.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.1%average punt
- Q3 7:53OU 4th & 3 at BAY 6, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snapGo for it59.0%46% to convertField goalTheir call57.7%−1.391% to makePunt46.9%−12.1average punt
- Q3 6:55BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snapGo for it34.8%−2.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.6%average punt
- Q3 0:14BAY 4th & 15 at BAY 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snapGo for it16.1%−3.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.7%average punt
- Q4 10:31OU 4th & 7 at BAY 7, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.728% to convertField goalTheir call86.2%91% to makePunt76.4%−9.7average punt
- Q4 6:11OU 4th & 7 at BAY 44, up 3Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snapGo for it75.0%37% to convertField goal71.5%−3.627% to makePuntTheir call74.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 3:25BAY 4th & 3 at OU 10, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snapGo for it30.6%−6.449% to convertField goalTheir call37.0%88% to makePunt16.6%−20.4average punt
- Q4 1:02OU 4th & 3 at BAY 47, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it59.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.0%−4.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BAY made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 9:31OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.8%97% to makeGo for two74.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:59BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.4%97% to makeGo for two30.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:09OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.1%97% to makeGo for two76.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:41BAY Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call28.0%−0.697% to makeGo for two28.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3376% → 75%
BAYDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 2:2225% → 25%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
75.1%
Charlie Brewer sacked by Nik Bonitto for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 22Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+3
75.0%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 3 yds to the Bayl 25Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+7
74.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to Christoph Henle for 7 yds to the Bayl 32Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+3
74.8%
Issac Power punt for 49 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for 3 yds to the Okla 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3TD3 plays · 78 yds · 1:0675% → 77%
BAYDrive 4FUMBLE6 plays · -4 yds · 1:3424% → 24%
Q1 7:57
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-2
76.4%
Issac Power punt for 38 yds , CeeDee Lamb returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 39 CeeDee Lamb fumbled, recovered by Okla CeeDee LambSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5FG8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5776% → 76%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+26
76.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 26 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-8
76.7%
Jalen Hurts sacked by James Lockhart for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 27Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 18
OWN 35
-15
76.2%
OKLAHOMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marquis Hayes) to the Okla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1224% → 23%
Q1 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
77.0%
Issac Power punt for 37 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 3:2877% → 76%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
77.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 2 yds to the Okla 18Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+17
76.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Brayden Willis for 17 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-10
76.8%
Brooks, Kennedy rush for 11 yards to the OKLAHOMA48, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Hayes, Marquis) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA27, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0423% → 22%
OUDrive 9FUMBLE3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3577% → 78%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
78.1%
Jalen Hurts sacked by James Lynch for a loss of 11 yards to the Okla 29 Jalen Hurts fumbled, forced by James Lynch, recovered by Bayl Terrel Bernard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FG4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5624% → 25%
Q2 11:00
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+5
75.9%
Charlie Brewer pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 5 yds to the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11FUMBLE12 plays · 15 yds · 4:0077% → 76%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
76.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 7 yds to the Okla 36Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+12
76.1%
Reeves Mundschau punt for 37 yds , Grayland Arnold returns for 12 yds to the Bayl 41 Grayland Arnold fumbled, forced by Delarrin Turner-Yell, recovered by Bayl JT WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5524% → 23%
OUDrive 13INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
77.5%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Jordan Williams return for 5 yds to the Okla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14TD3 plays · 23 yds · 0:5127% → 35%
OUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2469% → 66%
BAYDrive 16FG11 plays · 42 yds · 0:5938% → 40%
Q2 0:30
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+29
63.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 29 yds to the Okla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2340% → 39%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
60.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Josh Fleeks for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 23Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
60.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Xavier Newman) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
61.5%
Issac Power punt for 43 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19FG12 plays · 63 yds · 5:3361% → 67%
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+19
62.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 19 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
63.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Kennedy Brooks for 4 yds to the Bayl 42Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+12
62.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Austin Stogner for 12 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
63.8%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 15 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4739% → 36%
Q3 6:55
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
64.0%
Issac Power punt for 49 yds, fair catch by CeeDee Lamb at the Okla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21TD8 plays · 74 yds · 3:3965% → 82%
Q3 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
64.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Nick Basquine for 6 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+17
64.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 17 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
68.2%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 17 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
68.9%
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 10 yds to the Bayl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:4023% → 19%
OUDrive 23FG10 plays · 43 yds · 4:2987% → 87%
BAYDrive 24TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3712% → 31%
OUDrive 25PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 3:2273% → 74%
BAYDrive 26FG7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2131% → 53%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
68.8%
Zeno, Jacob pass complete to Mims, Denzel for 18 yards to the BAYLOR28, PENALTY BAYLOR ineligible downfield on pass (Keith, Khalil) 5 yards to the BAYLOR5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:34
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+78
71.0%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Chris Platt for 78 yds to the Okla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 27PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:1758% → 59%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
57.6%
Brooks, Kennedy rush for 11 yards to the OKLAHOMA36, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Proctor, R.J.) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+31
57.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 31 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER2 plays · 4 yds · 0:5550% → 49%
OUDrive 29TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
64.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to CeeDee Lamb for 2 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down BAYLOR Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Jordan Williams) to the Bayl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 30Uncategorized5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0020% → 7%
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-10
88.2%
Jacob Zeno sacked by Nik Bonitto and Jalen Redmond for a loss of 10 yards to the Okla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:41
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 81 yds for a TD (John Mayers KICK)
-18.9
TD · OT 0:00
Rhamondre Stevenson run for 5 yds for a TD (Gabe Brkic KICK)
+16.9
FG · Q4 3:25
John Mayers 27 yd FG GOOD
-14.6