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TXST

Texas State 21 at Coastal Carolina 24

CCU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.4CCU 86.6%Massimo Biscardi 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 17 · Q4 11:30
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:30 · Massimo Biscardi 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+4.1Home team on offense+17.6Garbage-time factor+9.0Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:42: Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 28 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +13.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:38: Hutch White pass complete to Tyler Vitt for 8 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK) — TXST win probability +21.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 4:03: CJ Marable run for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +16.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:31: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jacoby Hopkins for 18 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK) — TXST win probability +31.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28: Fred Payton run for 5 yds to the TexSt 39 — CCU win probability +17.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21TXST 4th & 3 at CCU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.3%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:15CCU 4th & 17 at TXST 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:15TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:28CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:03CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.8%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:32TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:31CCU 4th & 2 at CCU 32, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:31CCU 4th & 12 at CCU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:21TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:05TXST 4th & 15 at CCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−6.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:30CCU 4th & 7 at TXST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:28CCU 4th & 3 at TXST 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−1.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−18.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 7:39CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:07TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:42CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:38TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:03CCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:31TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.1%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
71.1%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
71.1%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Nikolas Daniels and Frankie Griffin for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+27
71.1%
Myles Prosser punt for 39 yds , Hutch White returns for 27 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4829% → 30%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
70.6%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 38Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 12
OPP 38
-4
70.7%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Tarron Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 42Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+13
70.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 13 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+46
70.4%
Joshua Rowland 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 5:0671% → 69%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
70.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+11
70.6%
CJ Marable run for 11 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
70.7%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 41Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
70.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 38Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+51
70.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 51 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
71.0%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+5
71.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-10
70.9%
Tyler, Ky'Jon rush for 1 yard to the TXST3 (Daniels,Nikolas;LewisJr,Clifton), PENALTY CCU holding (Hairston, J.) 10 yards to the TXST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 13
OPP 14
-4
70.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+35
69.3%
Massimo Biscardi 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
69.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 17 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
69.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
68.7%
Tyler Vitt run for 4 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
68.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
68.8%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-1
69.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
69.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
68.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 10 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
69.0%
Reese White run for 6 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
69.5%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
69.3%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
69.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 9 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-4
70.0%
Ky'Jon Tyler run for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 45Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
69.5%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
68.9%
Myles Prosser punt for 43 yds, downed at the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:1132% → 31%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
67.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Micah Hilts for 6 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+5
67.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
67.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
67.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
68.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+40
68.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds , Ky'Jon Tyler returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 6:2469% → 76%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
68.8%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
69.5%
Fred Payton run for 3 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
69.2%
Reese White run for no gain to the CCaro 45Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
68.6%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
69.6%
Fred Payton run for 5 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+14
69.9%
Jacqez Hairston run for 14 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
70.2%
Jacqez Hairston run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
70.1%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+16
69.5%
Fred Payton run for 16 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
70.2%
Fred Payton run for 1 yd to the TexSt 12 CJ MarableSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+9
70.2%
CJ Marable run for 9 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
70.2%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.3%
Fred Payton pass complete to Shadell Bell for 1 yd for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
73.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
73.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 2 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+1
73.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 1 yd to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 7:32
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+39
74.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Jaivon Heiligh returns for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
75.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 3 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+4
75.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Josh Anderson for 4 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+1
74.7%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 32Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+2
74.1%
Myles Prosser punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 36 , Hutch White returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
62.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 64 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:2767% → 64%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
66.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 6 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
68.3%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
67.7%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
68.4%
Fred Payton sacked by Caeveon Patton and Nico Ezidore for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 46Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
66.1%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+1
64.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 1 yd to the CCaro 47Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 12
OWN 47
+7
63.6%
Myles Prosser punt for 37 yds , Hutch White returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:4838% → 39%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
61.6%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+13
61.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 13 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
59.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 3 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-5
58.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Hutch White) to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
61.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Calvin HillSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+9
62.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 9 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
61.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, downed at the CCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
64.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 36 yds · 4:5539% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
61.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
59.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+10
59.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 10 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
58.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-7
58.5%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Tarron Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
50
+13
61.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 13 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
58.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for no gain to the CCaro 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
58.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Micah HiltsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
59.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 13 yds to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Tarron JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
58.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Chandler KrystSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-5
59.3%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 29Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+47
62.3%
Alan Orona 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 6:2364% → 81%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
64.1%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
64.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 9 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
65.9%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
66.7%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
66.1%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
50
+11
67.2%
Jacqez Hairston run for 11 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
67.5%
Jacqez Hairston run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+7
66.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 4
OPP 33
-5
66.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Isaiah Likely) to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+14
65.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 14 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
67.7%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+28
81.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 28 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0024% → 26%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
76.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 12 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
74.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
73.8%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Chandler Kryst return for no gain to the CCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 6:0280% → 87%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
80.2%
Bryce Carpenter run for 13 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
80.6%
Jacqez Hairston run for 12 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
82.5%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+7
82.5%
CJ Marable run for 7 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
85.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
86.0%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+4
85.9%
Jacqez Hairston run for 4 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
87.0%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+1
87.0%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
86.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
86.6%
Massimo Biscardi 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:4416% → 42%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+28
84.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Micah Hilts for 28 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
81.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 14 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
79.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+15
79.9%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to GrahamJr, T, PENALTY CCU pass interference (Matts, B.) 15 yards to the CCU8, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
58.3%
Hutch White pass complete to Tyler Vitt for 8 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 5:2574% → 94%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
73.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 9 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+9
76.4%
CJ Marable run for 9 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
76.8%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+23
77.2%
CJ Marable run for 23 yds to the TexSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
77.7%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+4
77.7%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
76.4%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+7
74.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 7 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
77.7%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.2%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:249% → 39%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
91.1%
Vitt,Tyler rush for 9 yards to the TXST38 (Bush, D.), PENALTY TXST holding 10 yards to the TXST19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 20
OWN 19
0
92.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 20
OWN 19
+7
92.0%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+14
92.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 14 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
90.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 11 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
89.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 17 yds to the CCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
88.8%
Tyler Vitt sacked by N/A and Tarron Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the CCaro 40Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+13
93.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jacoby Hopkins for 13 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+9
93.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 9 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
61.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jacoby Hopkins for 18 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:4990% → 95%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
90.2%
Fred Payton run for 5 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
90.2%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
94.7%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:31
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jacoby Hopkins for 18 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)
-31.7
TD · Q4 9:38
Hutch White pass complete to Tyler Vitt for 8 yds for a TD (Alan Orona KICK)
-21.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:28
Fred Payton run for 5 yds to the TexSt 39
+17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com