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APP

App State 48 at Troy 13

TROY
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2019 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:49 · Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 17 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense−16.0Pregame prior−20.3Score differential−8.2Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:37: Zac Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +3.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:13: DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +3.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:40: Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +6.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:49: Darrynton Evans run for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:14: Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +4.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9APP made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:01TROY 4th & 3 at APP 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10TROY 4th & 21 at TROY 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:40TROY 4th & 17 at TROY 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:49TROY 4th & 7 at APP 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:33TROY 4th & 15 at APP 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:14TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:45APP 4th & 1 at APP 43, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:41TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:32APP 4th & 3 at APP 38, up 28
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:01TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54TROY 4th & 6 at APP 25, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:01APP 4th & 8 at APP 39, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:10APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:25APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:37APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:13TROY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:40APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:49APP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:14APP Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54APP Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:5922% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
21.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 13 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
21.6%
Barker, Kaleb rush up middle for no gain to the TROY39 (Hampton, Nick), PENALTY APP personal foul (Fehr, Jordan) 15 yards to the APP46, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
21.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 4 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-5
21.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+6
21.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 6 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+25
21.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 25 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
21.6%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+6
21.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
21.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
23.4%
Tyler Sumpter 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:5177% → 77%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
23.2%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
23.3%
Jalen Virgil run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+11
23.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
50
+6
23.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+44
23.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 44 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+35
23.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 35 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
24.0%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-4
24.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-10
23.7%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Jordan Fehr for a loss of 10 yards to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 21
OWN 38
0
23.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 2:0976% → 78%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
24.2%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+6
24.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+10
24.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 10 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
24.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+52
22.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 52 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
22.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+20
22.5%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted Desmond Franklin return for 20 yds to the Troy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3178% → 81%
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
22.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.8%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2419% → 24%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.2%
Barker, Kaleb middle pass complete to Eafford, Tray for 5 yards to the TROY30 (Franklin, D.), PENALTY APP offside 5 yards to the TROY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
19.4%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
19.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 6 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
19.3%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Akeem Davis-Gaither for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+31
19.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 31 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
19.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 4 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+22
19.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 22 yds to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
19.9%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.6%
Kaleb Barker run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
23.5%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3377% → 84%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
23.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 11 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
22.5%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
23.1%
Jalen Virgil run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
23.3%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+43
23.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 43 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
22.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 12 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
22.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
22.2%
Thomas Hennigan run for 4 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
15.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.0%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
17.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Shaun JollySimilar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
17.8%
Kaleb Barker sacked by D'Marco Jackson for a loss of 10 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
17.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:2985% → 90%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
14.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+11
14.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Keishawn Waston for 11 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
14.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Keishawn WastonSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
14.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+9
14.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
14.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 15 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
10.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:1613% → 13%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-16
12.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+24
12.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 24 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+30
12.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 30 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
13.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 9 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 1
OPP 28
0
13.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-1
13.6%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 29Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 2
OPP 29
-5
13.4%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+17
13.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 17 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
13.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret Clark, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
13.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (Khalil McClain) to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
13.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 15
OPP 22
0
13.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+39
13.1%
Tyler Sumpter 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12INT
18 plays · 45 yds · 5:1089% → 92%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
10.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
10.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
11.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
10.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 17 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
10.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 0
0
10.1%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
10.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+6
10.4%
Zac Thomas run for 6 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
10.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Keishawn WastonSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+12
10.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 12 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
10.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
10.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the Troy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
7.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the Troy 5Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
7.4%
Thomas, Zac sideline pass complete to Virgil, Jalen for 5 yards to the TROY0, clock 00:31, PENALTY APP pass interference (Hennigan, T.) 15 yards to the TROY20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
-5
8.5%
Williams, Malik deep pass complete to Evans, Mike for 20 yards to the TROY0, clock 00:23, PENALTY APP illegal formation 5 yards to the TROY25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
+15
8.5%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Kyle Nixon return for 15 yds to the Troy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
10.8%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4691% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
8.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
8.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
9.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
8.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 20 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
8.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 13 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
8.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 11 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
8.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-5
8.1%
Thomas, Zac sideline pass complete to Williams, Malik for 9 yards to the TROY10 (Robertson, KJ), PENALTY APP ineligible downfield on pass (Pearson, Henry) 5 yards to the TROY24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+3
8.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+11
8.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
8.1%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Will Choloh Jr.) to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
8.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 2 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
8.1%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 6Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.1%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
4.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 11 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
4.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
4.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
4.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 28 yds, downed at the AppSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
2.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-5
2.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Victor Johnson) to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+3
2.7%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+9
2.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Keishawn Waston for 9 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
2.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 53 yds, downed at the Troy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+13
3.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 13 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
3.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
3.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
3.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Josh ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
3.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 49 yds, downed at the AppSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
2.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
2.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
1.7%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
1.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
1.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+10
1.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 10 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
1.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Desmond FranklinSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
1.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+7
1.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 7 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
1.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:3698% → 99%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
1.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+5
1.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 5 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
0.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 25 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 58 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
0.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 12 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
0.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 11 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
0.4%
Jamontez Woods run for 12 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
0.5%
Barker, Kaleb deep pass incomplete to Geiger, Kaylon, PENALTY APP pass interference (Casey, Ryker) 15 yards to the APP29, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
0.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
0.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Tray Eafford, broken up by Keishawn WastonSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+5
0.4%
Barker, Kaleb sideline pass incomplete, PENALTY APP offside (Harrington, B.) 5 yards to the APP25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
0.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+4
0.4%
Kaleb Barker run for 4 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
0.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+15
0.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 15 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
0.5%
Raykwon Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+2
0.5%
Raykwon Anderson run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.5%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Raykwon Anderson for 2 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
0.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23INT
12 plays · 43 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
0.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 10 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
0.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
0.2%
Jamontez Woods run for 7 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
0.1%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
0.2%
Kade Young pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 11 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.2%
Trevon Woolfolk run for no gain to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
0.1%
Kade Young pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 1 yd to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+11
0.1%
Kade Young pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 11 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
0.2%
Kade Young pass incomplete to Timmie Gibson, broken up by Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
0.2%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
0.2%
Kade Young pass intercepted Willie Edwards return for no gain to the AppSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
0.2%
Raykwon Anderson run for 6 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+8
0.2%
Raykwon Anderson run for 8 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
0.1%
Nakendrick Clark run for 4 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
0.1%
Nakendrick Clark run for 6 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
0.1%
Jackson Gibbs run for 4 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:40
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-6.5
TD · Q3 9:14
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-4.9
TD · Q2 8:49
Darrynton Evans run for 9 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
-4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com