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CCU

Coastal Carolina 42 at UL Monroe 45

ULM
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:15 · Myles Prosser punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaMon 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score differential−0.6Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:52: Caleb Evans run for 32 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +20.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:17: Fred Payton pass complete to Reese White for 41 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +27.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:44: Josh Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +30.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:30: CJ Marable run for 75 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +45.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:47: Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 34 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +32.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 6:15CCU 4th & 9 at ULM 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:31CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:08CCU 4th & 2 at ULM 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.7%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:08ULM 4th & 10 at CCU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:00CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:19ULM 4th & 6 at CCU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−7.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:19CCU 4th & 3 at CCU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:38ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−2.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:47CCU 4th & 11 at CCU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−2.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:32CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:11ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:55ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:57CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:52ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:35CCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:52ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:17CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:44ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:30CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:47ULM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2834% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.5%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
66.5%
CJ Marable run for 15 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
66.5%
Bryce Carpenter run for 3 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
66.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the CCaro 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+51
66.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 51 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.2%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:2165% → 67%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
65.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 19 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
65.6%
Josh Johnson run for 18 yds to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
65.7%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
65.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 18 yds to the CCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
66.6%
Josh Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:5634% → 35%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
65.9%
Jacqez Hairston run for 7 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+14
65.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for 14 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
65.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 5 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
65.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
65.6%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
65.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+1
65.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+1
65.7%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
64.9%
Myles Prosser punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaMon 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
1 play · 98 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+98
68.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 98 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5832% → 38%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.3%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 7 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
67.8%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
68.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 9 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
67.4%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
50
+12
67.4%
CJ Marable run for 12 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
67.4%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+17
66.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Reese White for 17 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
66.9%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the LaMon 16Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
61.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 16 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:5765% → 64%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
64.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Johnson for 1 yd to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+8
64.7%
Markis McCray run for 8 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+8
64.8%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-12
65.7%
Caleb Evans sacked by Tarron Jackson for a loss of 12 yards to the LaMon 15 Caleb Evans fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 36
OWN 15
+11
64.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 11 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 26
+11
63.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 11 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
63.6%
Jared Porter punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
63.1%
Jacqez Hairston run for no gain to the CCaro 24Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
63.2%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+7
63.8%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 7 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
63.7%
Myles Prosser punt for 43 yds , Perry Carter Jr. returns for no gain to the LaMon 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0364% → 73%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
64.2%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
64.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 7 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
64.8%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+20
65.5%
Josh Johnson run for 20 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
66.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 30 yds to the CCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
72.5%
Austin Vaughn run for 10 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9INT
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:4430% → 30%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.2%
Bryce Carpenter run for 10 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
69.5%
Bryce Carpenter run for 5 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
68.5%
Reese White run for 5 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
68.8%
Bryce Carpenter run for 6 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+1
68.1%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-1
68.3%
CJ Marable run for 9 yds to the LaMon 39 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
70.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+3
71.5%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
70.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for no gain to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Kerry Starks) to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
69.2%
Jacqez Hairston run for 1 yd to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
70.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass intercepted Landon Fogleman return for no gain to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:0073% → 74%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
73.2%
Markis McCray run for 3 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
73.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+21
72.4%
Caleb Evans run for 21 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
74.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Perry Carter Jr.Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
73.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
73.7%
Jared Porter punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
75.3%
CJ Marable run for 5 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
75.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to T'Qele Holmes for 3 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
75.2%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 24Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 1
OWN 24
-4
75.9%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jacqez Hairston) to the CCaro 20Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
76.3%
Myles Prosser punt for 59 yds, downed at the LaMon 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:4174% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
73.7%
Josh Johnson run for 14 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jahquan Bloomfield, broken up by Chandler KrystSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
74.1%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+19
72.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 19 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
75.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 12 yds to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
75.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh Pederson, broken up by Sterling JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
75.8%
Josh Johnson run for 9 yds to the CCaro 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
75.1%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
75.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan Hodoh, broken up by Derick BushSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
75.8%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
75.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCray, broken up by C.J. BrewerSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
79.0%
Jared Porter 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4422% → 40%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 6 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
77.6%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
78.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
77.7%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
77.3%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+5
78.0%
UL MONROE Penalty, Defensive offside (Kerry Starks) to the CCaro 44Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
77.0%
Fred Payton run for no gain to the CCaro 44Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+4
78.5%
C.J. Brewer run for 4 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
76.8%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+23
77.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 23 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
60.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 29 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5768% → 47%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
67.8%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
67.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-10
66.0%
Evans, Caleb rush for 14 yards to the ULM47, PENALTY ULM holding (Thomas, Eastwoo) 10 yards to the ULM23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 22
OWN 23
+11
65.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 11 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+72
47.1%
Jared Porter punt for 38 yds , Ky'Jon Tyler returns for 72 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:4650% → 72%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
49.9%
Josh Johnson run for 9 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+9
52.9%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
53.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 6 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-1
54.2%
Austin Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 44Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+5
53.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 5 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
54.1%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
54.2%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+32
72.2%
Caleb Evans run for 32 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3532% → 64%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.4%
Fred Payton run for 6 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
66.8%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.5%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Larry Collins Jr.Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
68.1%
CJ Marable run for 9 yds to the CCaro 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
64.6%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.3%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Larry Collins Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
65.5%
Fred Payton run for 3 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+12
64.4%
CJ Marable run for 12 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
63.5%
Fred Payton run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 41 Fred Payton fumbled, forced by Donald Louis Jr., recovered by CCaro CJ MarableSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+41
35.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Reese White for 41 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3344% → 80%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
44.1%
Evans, Caleb pass complete to Carter, Perry for 4 yards to the ULM29 (Kryst, C.), PENALTY CCU holding (Evans, Cincir) 10 yards to the ULM35, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
44.8%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
48.3%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
48.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
46.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 6
50
+7
48.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 7 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
49.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
49.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Austin Vaughn for 4 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+12
49.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 12 yds to the CCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
52.4%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the CCaro 26Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
52.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+14
49.5%
Caleb Evans run for 14 yds to the CCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
79.5%
Josh Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
30.8%
CJ Marable run for 75 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4341% → 80%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
41.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 30 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
47.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 11 yds to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
79.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 34 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0031% → 28%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jacqez HairstonSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.7%
Jacqez Hairston run for 6 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
69.4%
Fred Payton sacked by Kerry Starks and Ty Shelby for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 24Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
72.5%
Myles Prosser punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Perry Carter Jr. at the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4076% → 84%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
76.2%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
77.7%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
77.5%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
84.4%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
83.5%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Chandler Kryst return for no gain to the CCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
84.0%
Fred Payton sacked by Larance Shaw and Kerry Starks for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 21Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 13
OWN 21
-5
84.5%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Ethan Howard) to the CCaro 16Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+5
84.5%
Fred Payton run for 5 yds to the CCaro 21Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 13
OWN 21
-6
85.3%
Fred Payton run for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 15 Fred Payton fumbled, recovered by LaMon Ivin White Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:4291% → 90%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
91.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 16Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-2
91.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 18Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 13
OPP 18
-5
89.9%
TEAM rush for loss of 1 yard to the CCU19, PENALTY ULM false start 5 yards to the CCU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 18
OPP 23
-2
89.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:30
CJ Marable run for 75 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-45.5
TD · Q4 6:47
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 34 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)
+32.3
TD · Q4 7:44
Josh Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Jared Porter KICK)
+30
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com