Try the model
TXST

Texas State 13 at App State 35

APP
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:11 · Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:00: Zac Thomas pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 19 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +3.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:03: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 53 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +6.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 9:05: Joshua Rowland 48 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +2.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 5:32: Darrynton Evans run for 13 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +8.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Darrynton Evans run for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 12 at APP 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:02TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53APP 4th & 6 at APP 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:24TXST 4th & 3 at APP 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:43TXST 4th & 11 at APP 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:36APP 4th & 3 at TXST 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:01TXST 4th & 20 at TXST 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:30APP 4th & 2 at TXST 7, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:30TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 5 at APP 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:35TXST 4th & 1 at APP 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:05TXST 4th & 4 at APP 31, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:58APP 4th & 9 at APP 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−2.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:26TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:15TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:20TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 31, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:51APP 4th & 15 at TXST 43, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:09APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:00APP Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:03TXST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:32APP Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:00APP Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:26APP Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
96.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 11 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Robert Brown Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 5 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+11
96.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
96.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 3 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-12
96.5%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 12 yards to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 44
-5
96.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 39
+12
96.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 12 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
96.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 3:2596% → 96%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
95.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
95.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 21
-5
95.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Baer Hunter) to the AppSt 16Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+28
95.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 28 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
95.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
95.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+4
95.8%
Zac Thomas run for 4 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
95.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 45 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.5%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen Banks, broken up by E.J. ScottSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
95.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-5
95.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jacob Rowland) to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
95.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Robert Brown Jr.Similar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
95.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
95.4%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+8
95.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 8 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
95.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+8
95.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 44 yds , Hutch White returns for 8 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
95.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 15 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
94.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
95.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
94.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 6 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
94.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 3
OPP 33
-5
94.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Aaron Brewer) to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
94.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
94.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen Banks, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
95.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5395% → 94%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
94.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-7
94.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the AppSt 38 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Baer Hunter) to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+2
94.3%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+1
94.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 1 yd Corey Sutton fumbled, forced by Frankie Griffin, recovered by TexSt Bryan London IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:357% → 7%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-12
93.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 22
OPP 42
0
93.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 22
OPP 42
+11
94.1%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 11 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
92.9%
Joshua Rowland 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
92.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 12 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
93.0%
Darrynton Evans pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
50
+3
93.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
93.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 10 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
93.2%
Zac Thomas run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+1
93.2%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
92.9%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-6
91.5%
Hutch White run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 16
OWN 24
+7
91.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 7 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+14
91.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 14 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
91.0%
BrownJr,Robert rush for no gain to the TXST45 (Scott, E.J.), PENALTY TXST holding (Smith,Jaydan) 10 yards to the TXST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 20
OWN 35
0
91.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 20
OWN 35
0
91.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 20
OWN 35
0
91.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 20
OWN 35
+6
92.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 46 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 6 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:3091% → 91%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+60
90.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 60 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
91.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 6 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
91.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
91.6%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
90.6%
Chandler Staton 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
90.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 17
OWN 13
0
90.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
90.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:2591% → 94%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
90.6%
Thomas, Zac pass complete to Virgil, Jalen for 24 yards to the TXST35 (Daniels,Nikolas;Pacheco,Alvin), PENALTY APP holding (Evans, Mike) 10 yards to the APP31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+1
90.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+47
89.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 47 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
91.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
94.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 19 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:547% → 13%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
93.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
93.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 10 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
87.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 53 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
88.7%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
88.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 6 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
88.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Darrynton EvansSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
87.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 43 , Hutch White returns for 15 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:3013% → 17%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
86.8%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+5
86.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
86.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
86.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 2 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
86.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 5 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
86.9%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
86.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
86.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+5
86.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+48
83.5%
Joshua Rowland 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
84.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
84.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen Virgil, broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
83.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
83.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 45 yds , Gresch Jensen returns for no gain to the TexSt 27 Gresch Jensen fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
83.2%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Noel Cook return for 10 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:2087% → 93%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
86.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 12 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
86.5%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 13
OPP 20
-10
86.3%
Thomas, Zac rush for 6 yards to the TXST14, out-of-bounds, PENALTY APP holding (Hennigan, T.) 10 yards to the TXST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 23
OPP 30
+5
85.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 18
OPP 25
+12
84.6%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Virgil, Jalen, PENALTY TXST personal foul (Griffin,Frankie) 12 yards to the TXST13, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
92.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 13 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
90.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+14
90.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 14 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
89.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-2
90.3%
Tyler Vitt sacked by E.J. Scott for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 15
OWN 32
-1
90.9%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:3392% → 97%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
92.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+15
92.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Frankie Griffin) to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
92.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
92.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
92.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
93.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 12 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
93.1%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY TXST holding (Morris,Jarron) 9 yards to the TXST10, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:375% → 5%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
95.5%
Tyler Vitt sacked by E.J. Scott for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 19 TEXAS STATE Penalty, intentional grounding (Tyler Vitt) to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+9
95.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
95.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 10 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
94.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Shaun JollySimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
95.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
95.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 48 yds, downed at the AppSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 6:5297% → 100%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
96.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+6
96.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+11
96.5%
Zac Thomas run for 11 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
96.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
96.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+6
96.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
96.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 40Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+4
96.7%
Zac Thomas run for 4 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+32
96.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 32 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
96.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+3
96.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 13 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Micah Hilts for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+41
99.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.6%
Raykwon Anderson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-3
99.6%
Raykwon Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.6%
Raykwon Anderson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+15
99.5%
Subotsch, X. punt 49 yards to the TXST21, fair catch by White,Hutch, PENALTY TXST personal foul (Speights,C) 15 yards to the APP45, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
99.6%
Raykwon Anderson run for 17 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
99.6%
Raykwon Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-1
99.6%
Raykwon Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+2
99.6%
Raykwon Anderson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
99.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:32
Darrynton Evans run for 13 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q2 0:03
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 53 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q3 0:00
Darrynton Evans run for 10 yds for a TD (Chandler Staton KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com