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TROY

Troy 63 at Texas State 27

TXST
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:14 · Kaleb Barker sacked by Frankie Griffin for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 38 Kaleb Barker fumbled, recovered by Troy Kaleb Barker , return for 0 yards
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense−28.6Score differential−25.1Pregame prior−11.9Garbage-time factor−7.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:03: Kaleb Barker pass complete to AJ Lewis for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +4.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:30: Robert Brown Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +6.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 8:56: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 38 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +6.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:34: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +10.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:20: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +9.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30TXST 4th & 14 at TROY 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:27TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:05TXST 4th & 20 at TXST 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:27TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:21TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 26, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:14TROY 4th & 10 at TXST 33, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:55TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 47, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:46TXST 4th & 7 at TROY 18, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:37TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 35, up 29
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:26TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 47, down 29
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:16TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 15, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:31TROY 4th & 5 at TXST 42, up 22
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:41TROY 4th & 2 at TXST 2, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 3:44TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:03TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:30TXST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:56TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:34TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:20TROY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:42TROY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:08TXST Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:26TROY Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:40TXST Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:41TROY Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:08TROY Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
28.5%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
28.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 6 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
28.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 44 yds , Hutch White returns for 10 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:4229% → 32%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
29.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+16
29.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 16 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
29.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
29.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+6
29.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 6 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
29.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 9 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+14
29.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 14 yds to the Troy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
29.6%
Vitt,Tyler rush up middle for 4 yards to the TROY8 (Robertson, KJ;Dunmore, Jaquez), PENALTY TXST holding (Heitmeier,Tate) 10 yards to the TROY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+2
29.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+4
29.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 4 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
29.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for no gain to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
32.4%
Joshua Rowland 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 3:3967% → 69%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
32.9%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Troy 17Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+16
33.0%
DK Billingsley run for 16 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
32.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 8 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
32.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 6 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
32.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 11 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
32.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 10 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
32.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 7 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+16
31.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 16 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
31.9%
TROY Penalty, false start (Austin Stidham) to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
32.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 1 yd to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
32.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q1 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
31.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
31.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
31.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 6 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
31.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 14 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
32.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
32.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
31.9%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Carlton Martial return for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:2068% → 73%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
31.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for 27 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
31.0%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+15
31.0%
Barker, Kaleb post pass incomplete to Eafford, Tray, PENALTY TXST pass interference (GrahamJr, T) 15 yards to the TXST5, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
31.0%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to AJ Lewis for 3 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:3028% → 36%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
28.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 8 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+17
28.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 17 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
29.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 11 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
35.7%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q2 13:27
4TH & 11
OWN 47
+16
34.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 27 , Hutch White returns for 16 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
32.3%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+5
32.6%
Kaleb Barker run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
32.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 6
OPP 48
-5
33.2%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
33.8%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-8
33.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 2 yds to the TexSt 29 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 18
OWN 19
-2
33.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 20
OWN 17
0
32.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 20
OWN 17
0
32.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2468% → 74%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
50
0
32.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Jabir Daughtry-FryeSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
50
+13
32.4%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 13 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
32.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
32.4%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+38
25.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 38 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
26.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
26.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
25.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Craig SlocumSimilar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
25.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:2674% → 85%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
25.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+24
25.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 24 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
25.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke Whittemore, broken up by JaShon WaddySimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
25.7%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
25.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
15.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12INT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
19.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
19.3%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-5
18.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Aaron Brewer) to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+6
18.8%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
18.8%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted TJ Harris return for no gain to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:1086% → 96%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
14.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 14 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
14.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Jabir Daughtry-FryeSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
14.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for no gain to the TexSt 36 Jabir Daughtry-Frye fumbled, forced by Caeveon Patton, recovered by Troy Kaleb BarkerSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+35
14.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 35 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:596% → 5%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
5.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
5.7%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-7
6.0%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Will Choloh Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
5.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
4.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+34
4.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 19 yds to the TEXSTATE 48 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal use of hands (Frankie Griffin) to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
5.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret Clark, broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
5.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
5.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK BillingsleySimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 10
OPP 33
-5
5.6%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Frankie Griffin for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 38 Kaleb Barker fumbled, recovered by Troy Kaleb Barker , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:114% → 4%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
4.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-7
3.9%
Tyler Vitt sacked by John Hines Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
3.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 14 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
4.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
4.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
4.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+1
4.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:4396% → 98%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
4.0%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
4.1%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+15
4.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 15 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
3.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 4 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
4.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 5 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+7
4.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 7 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
3.9%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for no gain to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
4.0%
Barker, Kaleb deep out pass incomplete to Todd, Reggie (Morris,Jarron), PENALTY TXST pass interference (Morris,Jarron) 11 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Khambrail WintersSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:563% → 5%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
2.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 7 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+40
2.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 40 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
3.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel, broken up by Dell PettusSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
3.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
3.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
5.1%
Joshua Rowland 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
3.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
3.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to AJ Lewis for 7 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
2.8%
Trevon Woolfolk run for no gain to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
2.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:474% → 5%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
4.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 15Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+17
3.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 17 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
4.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 9 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
4.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
4.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 1 yd to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+15
4.2%
Vitt,Tyler SEAM ROUTE pass incomplete to Hays,Mason (Dunmore, Jaquez), PENALTY TROY pass interference (Dunmore, Jaquez) 15 yards to the TROY41, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
4.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
4.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Blake Aragon for 4 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+35
4.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 35 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:3697% → 99%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
2.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 11 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
2.9%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
2.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+6
3.0%
Barker, Kaleb CN pass incomplete to Todd, Reggie, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Morris,Jarron) 6 yards to the TROY38, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
2.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
2.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+39
2.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 39 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
2.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 11 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 6 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 15 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
0.7%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
0.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
0.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
0.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
0.6%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 2 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+2
0.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 2 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-4
0.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 15Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
0.7%
Evan Legassey punt for 35 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:300% → 2%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
50
+11
0.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
2.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 39 yds for a TD TROY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
1.4%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
1.4%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
1.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
1.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
1.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Anthony D. TaylorSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
1.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 5 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 5
OWN 16
-1
1.7%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Will Sunderland return for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28TD
9 plays · 39 yds · 5:1899% → 100%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
1.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 8 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+6
1.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 6 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
1.1%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+15
1.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 15 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
1.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
1.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
1.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29INT TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
0.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+12
0.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Chandler Speights for 12 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
0.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 13 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+64
0.1%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted for a TD Carlton Martial return for 64 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:34
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q2 2:20
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q2 8:56
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 38 yds for a TD TEXAS STATE Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com