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USA

South Alabama 28 at Texas State 30

TXST
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:08 · TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+19.5+9.80−9.8−19.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:35: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 22 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal motion (-4 Yards) to the TexSt 7 (Frankie Onate KICK) — USA win probability +14.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:07: Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 8 yds for a TD Onate, Frankie kick attempt failed, PENALTY TXST roughing the kicker (Morris,Jarron) 2 yards to the TXST1, NO PLAY. Onate, Frankie kick attempt failed, PENALTY TXST offside (Aragon,Blake) 0 yards to the TXST1, NO PLAY. (Frankie Onate KICK) — USA win probability +15.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:36: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +14.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:57: Tra Minter run for 6 yds for a TD (Frankie Onate KICK) — USA win probability +30.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:14: Joshua Rowland 31 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +15.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 7 at USA 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49TXST 4th & 1 at USA 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    63% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:49USA 4th & 13 at USA 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:44TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:03TXST 4th & 2 at USA 24, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:57USA 4th & 5 at USA 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:21USA 4th & 4 at USA 46, up 1
    Close callPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:24USA 4th & 3 at TXST 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−2.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:29USA 4th & 8 at USA 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:37TXST 4th & 4 at USA 27, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%−0.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:14TXST 4th & 2 at USA 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−4.5
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−22.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:33USA 4th & 1 at USA 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.6%−4.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:52TXST 4th & 12 at USA 35, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%−2.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    74.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:08USA 4th & 1 at TXST 11, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−17.1
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−38.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:47USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:09TXST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:35USA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:24TXST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:07USA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:36TXST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:57USA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
69.3%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+2
69.3%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 5
+4
69.3%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+4
69.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 45 yds , Hutch White returns for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:1669% → 69%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
50
0
69.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
50
0
69.2%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 10
50
+28
69.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 28 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
69.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+4
69.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
69.3%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+6
69.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 6 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
69.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+4
69.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside (Travis Reed) to the SAlab 3Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+20
69.2%
Joshua Rowland 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.0%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
69.0%
Desmond Trotter run for 7 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
68.9%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
68.6%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-9
68.7%
Desmond Trotter run for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 32 Desmond Trotter fumbled, recovered by SAlab Tra MinterSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
69.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
68.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
69.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
69.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 7:44
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
68.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:1331% → 36%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
68.9%
Carlos Davis run for 9 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
68.5%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
68.8%
Carlos Davis run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
50
+21
68.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 21 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
67.7%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+22
67.7%
Tra Minter run for 22 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
67.7%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.7%
Jared Wilson run for no gain to the TexSt 3Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.8%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds for a TD (Frankie Onate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:3765% → 66%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
64.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
65.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+5
64.5%
Vitt,Tyler sideline pass incomplete to White,Hutch (Rockette, Devin), PENALTY USA pass interference (Rockette, Devin) 5 yards to the TXST35, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.0%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
65.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 15 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
65.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
65.6%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Riley Cole for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 41
+27
63.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 27 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
66.4%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Jeffery Whatley for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+3
65.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 3 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+8
65.5%
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
65.9%
Joshua Rowland 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
64.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for no gain to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
64.2%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
64.2%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
65.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 63 yds, downed at the TexSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:0064% → 67%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
64.4%
Hutch White run for 1 yd to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+24
64.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 24 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
64.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+15
64.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 15 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
66.5%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Travis Reed return for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
61.4%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
61.7%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
61.5%
Desmond Trotter pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
62.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 3:5163% → 75%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
62.6%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 6 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+12
62.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 12 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
63.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
63.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+18
62.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Gi'Narious Johnson) to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
65.2%
Kieston Roach run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+18
63.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for 18 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
75.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 40 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:2629% → 45%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
71.3%
Carlos Davis run for 8 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+2
69.7%
Desmond Trotter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
70.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
71.1%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+33
72.0%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Tre'Veon Hamilton for 33 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
67.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+14
69.8%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 14 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
69.4%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Clifton Lewis Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+22
55.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 22 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal motion (-4 Yards) to the TexSt 7 (Frankie Onate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:3062% → 64%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
62.2%
Tyler Vitt run for 8 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
63.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
63.6%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
63.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 13 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
63.7%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen Banks, broken up by Kelvin JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3661% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Aaron Brewer) to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
60.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
60.3%
Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+17
59.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 17 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
63.2%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+17
63.6%
Tyler Vitt run for 17 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
76.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 38 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1728% → 49%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.6%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 12 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
70.7%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
69.4%
Tra Minter run for 10 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
68.6%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-3
68.8%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+9
71.3%
Desmond Trotter run for 9 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+23
70.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Carlos Davis for 8 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Khambrail Winters) to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
66.9%
Carlos Davis run for 8 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal use of hands (Jordan Revels) to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
66.9%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.9%
Jared Wilson run for no gain to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
68.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Tre'Veon Hamilton) to the TexSt 8Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
52.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 8 yds for a TD Onate, Frankie kick attempt failed, PENALTY TXST roughing the kicker (Morris,Jarron) 2 yards to the TXST1, NO PLAY. Onate, Frankie kick attempt failed, PENALTY TXST offside (Aragon,Blake) 0 yards to the TXST1, NO PLAY. (Frankie Onate KICK)Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.2%
Onate, Frankie kick attempt failed, PENALTY TXST offside (Aragon,Blake) 0 yards to the TXST1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2361% → 78%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
61.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Dylan Jantz for 12 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
62.1%
Hutch White run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+27
61.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 27 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
63.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
78.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
71.7%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 9 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-2
69.3%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-5
71.4%
Desmond Trotter sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
74.0%
Jack Brooks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:0377% → 79%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+40
77.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 40 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
80.1%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+5
78.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Blake Aragon for 5 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
78.9%
Joshua Rowland 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:4028% → 58%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
71.7%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+8
72.0%
Desmond Trotter run for 8 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
69.9%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
70.5%
Carlos Davis run for 4 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
68.8%
Desmond Trotter run for 7 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
68.4%
Tra Minter run for 10 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
67.9%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Carlos Davis for 6 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
65.5%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+6
67.6%
Carlos Davis run for 6 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
73.1%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Zac Crosby for 18 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
73.1%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
42.5%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds for a TD (Frankie Onate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19FG
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:3062% → 75%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
62.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 2 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
62.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Calvin Hill for no gain to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+11
59.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
62.5%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
62.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-1
59.9%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 14Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
75.3%
Joshua Rowland 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3334% → 30%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
65.7%
Desmond Trotter run for 8 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
62.3%
Desmond Trotter run for no gain to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
64.6%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
70.3%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · -27 yds · 1:3482% → 78%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
82.4%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+3
82.1%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-4
80.2%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 12
OPP 35
-19
78.2%
Seamus O'Kelly run for a loss of 19 yards to the TexSt 40 Seamus O'Kelly fumbled, forced by Jaden Voisin, recovered by SAlab Cade SutherlandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:3623% → 24%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
77.0%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
77.1%
Desmond Trotter run for 4 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+14
77.2%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 14 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
74.9%
Carlos Davis run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
74.9%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+4
77.2%
Desmond Trotter run for 4 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+28
76.1%
Frankie Onate 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
87.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-5
86.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:57
Tra Minter run for 6 yds for a TD (Frankie Onate KICK)
-30.6
TD · Q3 7:07
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 8 yds for a TD Onate, Frankie kick attempt failed, PENALTY TXST roughing the kicker (Morris,Jarron) 2 yards to the TXST1, NO PLAY. Onate, Frankie kick attempt failed, PENALTY TXST offside (Aragon,Blake) 0 yards to the TXST1, NO PLAY. (Frankie Onate KICK)
-15.6
FG · Q4 6:14
Joshua Rowland 31 yd FG GOOD
+15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com