Try the model
GASO

Georgia Southern 28 at Troy 49

TROY
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:39 · Trevon Woolfolk run for no gain to the GeoSo 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense+1.0Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.3Pregame prior−4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:53: DK Billingsley run for 18 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +5.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:22: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 15 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +9.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:54: Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK) — GASO win probability +19.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:37: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds for a TD (Kaylon Geiger pass to Kaleb Barker for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +11.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:31: DK Billingsley run for 70 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +9.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54GASO 4th & 6 at GASO 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:39TROY 4th & 1 at GASO 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:39TROY 4th & 1 at GASO 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:08GASO 4th & 25 at GASO 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00GASO 4th & 4 at TROY 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:28TROY 4th & 2 at GASO 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.9%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:44TROY 4th & 7 at GASO 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:13GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:00GASO 4th & 6 at TROY 47, down 13
    Close callPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:49TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:14GASO 4th & 13 at TROY 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−5.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54GASO 4th & 2 at TROY 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−1.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    8.6%−6.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:37GASO 4th & 12 at TROY 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:31GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:54TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:53TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:10GASO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:22TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:38GASO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54GASO Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:37TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:31TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:50TROY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:37GASO Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:0645% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.8%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
44.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Kenderick Duncan Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
44.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
44.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
44.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for 13 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
44.8%
DK Billingsley run for 25 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
44.8%
DK Billingsley run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
44.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.8%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
44.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger, broken up by Kenderick Duncan Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
44.8%
DK Billingsley run for 25 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
44.8%
DK Billingsley run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
46.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.1%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27 Shai Werts fumbled, forced by TJ Harris,Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
46.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
46.1%
Shai Werts sacked by Marcus Webb for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-2
46.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds , Luke Whittemore returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
47.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
47.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 0
0
47.4%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+24
47.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 24 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
48.1%
Daughtry-Frye rush up middle for 20 yards to the GS25 (K. Duncan Jr.), PENALTY TROY holding (Bradshaw, Dylan) 10 yards to the TROY45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 20
OWN 45
0
47.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 20
OWN 45
-1
47.8%
Kaleb Barker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 21
OWN 44
+20
47.6%
Kaleb Barker run for 20 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
47.8%
Trevon Woolfolk run for no gain to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
47.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
48.1%
Daughtry-Frye rush up middle for 20 yards to the GS25 (K. Duncan Jr), PENALTY TROY holding (Bradshaw, Dylan) 10 yards to the TROY45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
47.8%
Trevon Woolfolk run for no gain to the GeoSo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
48.9%
Shai Werts sacked by KJ Robertson and Marcus Webb for a loss of 11 yards to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+1
49.3%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+5
49.5%
S. Werts rush quarterback draw for loss of 3 yards to the GS23 (Martial, C.;Harris, TJ), PENALTY TROY offside (Webb, Marcus) 5 yards to the GS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-10
49.5%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 36 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 25
OWN 21
0
49.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 48 yds , Luke Whittemore returns for no gain to the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4651% → 58%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
50.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 8 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+54
51.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 54 yds to the GeoSo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-12
51.8%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 5 TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Bret Clark) to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+1
51.6%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
57.5%
DK Billingsley run for 18 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 6:4344% → 46%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
55.9%
Shai Werts run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-4
56.0%
Shai Werts sacked by Marcus Webb for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+18
56.2%
Shai Werts run for 18 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
55.7%
J.D. King run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
55.3%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+5
55.3%
J.D. King run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
58.7%
Malik Murray run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+2
58.4%
J.D. King run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
58.5%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Wesley Kennedy IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+10
59.3%
C.J. Wright run for 10 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
58.4%
Shai Werts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 41 Shai Werts fumbled,Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+41
54.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 41 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4856% → 67%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
56.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
57.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
56.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+8
55.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Timmie Gibson for 8 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+2
55.9%
Micah Murphy run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
57.6%
Barker, Kaleb deep pass incomplete to McClain, Khalil, PENALTY GS pass interference (M. Brinson) 15 yards to the GS32, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
57.7%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+16
57.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 16 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
66.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 15 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4436% → 44%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.8%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
63.1%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+30
63.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 30 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
61.2%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
61.3%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+33
56.4%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 33 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 3:5460% → 65%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.8%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
60.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 6 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-5
60.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+27
59.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 27 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
62.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete, broken up by Randy Wade Jr.Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+14
61.9%
Kaylon Geiger run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
62.0%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
62.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+14
61.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 14 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
62.0%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Kaylon GeigerSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.5%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
65.0%
Tyler Sumpter 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:3135% → 33%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.6%
Shai Werts run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
64.4%
Shai Werts run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
63.8%
J.D. King run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
67.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 1:0667% → 75%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+30
66.9%
DK Billingsley run for 30 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
69.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 9 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
69.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Jabir Daughtry-FryeSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+7
68.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
69.0%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+12
69.0%
Kaleb Barker run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
74.7%
Tyler Sumpter 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.0%
J.D. King run for no gain to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.1%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-4
73.5%
Shai Werts sacked by Travis Sailo for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
74.0%
Anthony Beck II punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
77.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 7 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
78.1%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted Jessie Liptrot return for no gain to the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
74.5%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+9
74.1%
J.D. King run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
74.1%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+15
74.1%
S. Werts deep pass incomplete to M. Michaud, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Fletcher, O.) 15 yards to the GS49, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
72.8%
J.D. King run for 3 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
72.6%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
72.7%
Wesley Kennedy III run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
74.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
81.3%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-3
81.4%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
80.6%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
79.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Wesley Kennedy III at the GeoSo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 5:2121% → 15%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.8%
Shai Werts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
79.0%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
78.4%
J.D. King run for 3 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
78.0%
Shai Werts run for 4 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
78.0%
Shai Werts run for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+19
78.4%
Shai Werts run for 19 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
79.1%
J.D. King run for 1 yd to the Troy 22Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-2
79.1%
J.D. King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 11
OPP 24
-2
81.2%
Shai Werts sacked by Carlton Martial for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+43
84.6%
Tyler Bass 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
87.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 6 yds Jabir Daughtry-Frye fumbled, forced by Rashad Byrd, recovered by GeoSo NaJee ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 2:1119% → 36%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
81.1%
Shai Werts sacked by KJ Robertson for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+6
83.8%
J.D. King run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+10
83.7%
Shai Werts pass complete to J.D. King for 10 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+26
63.8%
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1775% → 95%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 11 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
75.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 7 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+8
77.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 8 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
77.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 2 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+14
77.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 14 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
77.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 8 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 2
OPP 25
0
77.9%
Kaylon Geiger pass incomplete to Kaleb Barker, broken up by Raymond Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+13
76.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 13 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
77.9%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
83.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the GeoSo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.7%
Billingsley, DK rush up middle for loss of 1 yard to the GS2 (R. Wade Jr;J. Bowdry), PENALTY GS personal foul (R. Wade Jr) 0 yards to the GS1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClain, broken up by Monquavion BrinsonSimilar
Q4 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
83.7%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds for a TD (Kaylon Geiger pass to Kaleb Barker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
89.9%
Shai Werts run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
89.2%
J.D. King run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
89.3%
Shai Werts pass complete to Colby Ransom for 23 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
87.8%
Shai Werts sacked by Will Choloh Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+5
89.4%
Wesley Kennedy III run for 5 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+1
89.5%
Shai Werts run for 1 yd to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 12
OPP 30
0
90.2%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Malik Murray, broken up by TJ HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.4%
DK Billingsley run for 70 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
Shai Werts run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.1%
Shai Werts pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 2 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Darion AndersonSimilar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-10
99.1%
Shai Werts sacked by Will Choloh Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
99.5%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 12 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:050% → 1%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.9%
Shai Werts sacked by Marcus Webb and John Hines Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+25
99.9%
Shai Werts pass complete to Colby Ransom for 25 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to Malik Murray, broken up by TJ HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Shai Werts pass incomplete to J.D. KingSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.2%
Shai Werts pass complete to Malik Murray for 32 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
99.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 17 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
99.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+1
99.6%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-1
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
Shai Werts pass complete to Darion Anderson for 26 yds for a TD (Tyler Bass KICK)
-19.9
TD · Q4 9:37
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds for a TD (Kaylon Geiger pass to Kaleb Barker for Two-Point Conversion)
+11.2
TD · Q4 5:31
DK Billingsley run for 70 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com