Try the model
TXST

Texas State 3 at Louisiana 31

UL
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Cajun Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:56 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Eric Garror returns for 4 yds to the LaLaf 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Pregame prior+12.3Home team on offense+34.6Score differential+30.4Garbage-time factor+10.4Blowout margin+15.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 10:42: Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 33 Tyler Vitt fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler Vitt — TXST win probability +2.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:28: Elijah Mitchell run for 39 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:44: Joshua Rowland 33 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +4.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 12:43: Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 24 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +3.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:32: Chris Smith run for 24 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:49UL 4th & 10 at UL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:15TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:08UL 4th & 13 at UL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TXST 4th & 8 at UL 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:05UL 4th & 3 at TXST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:42TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44TXST 4th & 6 at UL 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:32TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 4 at UL 38, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:56TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:31UL 4th & 7 at UL 22, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:16UL 4th & 6 at UL 32, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 6:28UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:43UL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:32UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:40UL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
94.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
94.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
94.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
94.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
94.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, downed at the LaLaf 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
93.6%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+8
93.6%
Raymond Calais run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+7
93.6%
Raymond Calais run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
93.6%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+11
93.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Hunter Bergeron for 11 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-5
93.6%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Kevin Dotson) to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+16
93.6%
Levi Lewis run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
93.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-15
93.7%
Mitchell, Elijah rush for 3 yards to the TXST42 (LondonII,Bryan), PENALTY LA face mask (Vallot, Shane) 15 yards to the LA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-1
93.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+8
93.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 8 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+2
93.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds , Hutch White returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
92.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 9 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
92.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
92.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 14 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.9%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
91.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for no gain to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
92.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by Jayrin WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
92.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 25 yds, downed at the LaLaf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
91.2%
LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Max Mitchell) to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 13
OWN 27
0
91.1%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Hunter BergeronSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
90.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
90.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:5210% → 11%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
90.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
90.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 6 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
90.4%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 5 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
90.3%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-1
90.5%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+22
90.7%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jacoby Hopkins for 22 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
88.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
88.8%
Jaylin Nelson pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
88.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Jacoby HopkinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
89.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 20 yds, downed at the LaLaf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
89.5%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Peter Leblanc, broken up by Jalen SmithSimilar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+23
89.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 23 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
89.9%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
90.0%
Raymond Calais run for 10 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
90.1%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
90.1%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+6
89.9%
Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
89.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
87.1%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 33 Tyler Vitt fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tyler VittSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+10
87.6%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Dylan Jantz for 10 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-5
87.0%
Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+12
88.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Eric Garror returns for 12 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:1688% → 91%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
87.5%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
87.6%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+2
87.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
88.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 19 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
88.4%
Levi Lewis run for no gain to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
90.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 39 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 4:4410% → 15%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, OF (Chris Smith) to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
89.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
89.2%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+19
89.3%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Lorenzo McCaskill) to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
89.0%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+8
89.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 8 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+17
88.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Zi'Yon Hill) to the LaLaf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
88.3%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
88.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 5 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-1
88.9%
Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
84.8%
Joshua Rowland 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 1:4486% → 90%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
86.1%
Raymond Calais run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+5
86.7%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
86.3%
Levi Lewis run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
86.9%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
87.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 7 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+1
87.3%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
86.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
87.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 9 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
87.7%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+46
90.3%
Stevie Artigue 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1789% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
89.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 16 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
89.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
89.9%
Raymond Calais run for 10 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
89.9%
Levi Lewis run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
93.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 24 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12INT
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+23
91.5%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 23 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
92.3%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 8 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+4
91.9%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
92.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 2 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
92.1%
Tyler Vitt run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.5%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
91.7%
Hutch White pass incomplete to Tyler VittSimilar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
92.2%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Michael Jacquet III return for no gain to the LaLaf 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:4294% → 98%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
93.7%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
93.7%
Raymond Calais run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+6
93.4%
Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
93.7%
Raymond Calais run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
93.8%
Raymond Calais run for no gain to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+7
93.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Pearse Migl for 7 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
94.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
94.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+14
94.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 14 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
94.1%
Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
94.1%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+24
98.4%
Chris Smith run for 24 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by Percy ButlerSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
98.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-1
98.1%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 3:32
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+13
98.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 40 , Eric Garror returns for 13 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:3499% → 100%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.5%
Raymond Calais run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Raymond CalaisSimilar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+25
98.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 25 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
98.6%
Calais, Raymond rush for 1 yard to the TXST28 (Griffin,Frankie;Patton,Caeveon), PENALTY LA illegal formation 5 yards to the TXST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Raymond Calais for 34 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.8%
Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
99.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 2 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Brenndan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+7
99.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-1
99.9%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 4 yds Jalen Williams fumbled, forced by Jarron Morris, recovered by TexSt Ishmael DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
99.9%
Vitt,Tyler pass complete to White,Hutch for 5 yards to the TXST44, out-of-bounds (Gardner, Ferrod), PENALTY TXST holding (Graham Jr, Trevis) 10 yards to the TXST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+13
99.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 13 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Eric Garror returns for 4 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
99.9%
Raymond Calais run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20INT
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:030% → 0%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 16 yds to the ULLAFAYTTE 41 TEXAS STATE Penalty, personal foul (Aaron Brewer) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 9
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to Hopkins,Jacoby, PENALTY LA personal foul (Nelson, Ja'Quane) 15 yards to the LA41, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Tyler Vitt run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+15
99.9%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete, QB hurry by Hill, Zi'Yon, PENALTY LA roughing passer (Hill, Zi'Yon) 15 yards to the LA22, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.9%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+9
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jacoby Hopkins for 9 yds to the LaLaf 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
99.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (Tyler Vitt) to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
99.9%
Vitt,Tyler pass incomplete to Jantz, Dylan, PENALTY LA roughing passer (McCaskill, Lorenzo) 8 yards to the LA7, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted, touchback. Bralen Trahan return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Lorenzo McCaskill) to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
99.9%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+1
99.9%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+11
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Pearse Migl for 11 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Ashton Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 49 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+42
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Kenny Frazier for 42 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
99.9%
Vitt,Tyler rush for 3 yards to the LA14 (Rollins, Malcolm), PENALTY TXST holding (Jordan,Reece) 10 yards to the LA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+9
99.9%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Robert Brown Jr. for 9 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:32
Chris Smith run for 24 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+4.3
FG · Q2 1:44
Joshua Rowland 33 yd FG GOOD
-4.1
TD · Q3 12:43
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 24 yds for a TD (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com