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TROY

Troy 35 at Coastal Carolina 36

CCU
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Myles Prosser punt for 34 yds, downed at the Troy 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 139Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior−1.4Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:46: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 47 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +4.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:28: Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds for a TD (Bryce Carpenter pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion) — CCU win probability +25.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:23: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 19 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +21.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:34: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 23 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — TROY win probability +28.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:30: CJ Marable run for 3 yds for a TD Timeout TROY, clock 00:30 Carpenter, B. pass attempt failed, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Pettus, Dell) 1 yards to the TROY2, NO PLAY. (C. Marable Run For Two-point Conversion) — CCU win probability +63.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 3:46CCU 4th & 12 at CCU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:53TROY 4th & 12 at CCU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:10CCU 4th & 2 at CCU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:02TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:02TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:38CCU 4th & 4 at TROY 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.5
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−8.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:41CCU 4th & 6 at TROY 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−10.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:41TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 47, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00CCU 4th & 6 at CCU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:07TROY 4th & 19 at TROY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−6.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:09CCU 4th & 9 at CCU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−4.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:29TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:23TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:03CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:04TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:24CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 3:46TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:28CCU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:23TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:34TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:30CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 6.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    43.1%−6.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:3756% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
44.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+6
44.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 6 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
44.5%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+7
44.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 7 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
44.5%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+13
44.5%
DK Billingsley run for 13 yds to the CCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
44.5%
DK Billingsley run for 14 yds to the CCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
44.5%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+11
44.5%
Kaleb Barker run for 11 yds to the CCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
44.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 11 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.6%
Kaleb Barker run for 4 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2044% → 47%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
44.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jai Williams for 46 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
44.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 5 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
44.7%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the Troy 24Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-10
44.5%
Carpenter, B. rush for 6 yards to the TROY18 (Robertson, KJ;Spralling, Shon), PENALTY CCU holding (Loper, A.) 10 yards to the TROY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+15
44.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 15 yds to the Troy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
44.7%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
47.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 16 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 0:5054% → 58%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
46.1%
Kaleb Barker run for 9 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+30
45.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for 30 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
45.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 38 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4044% → 48%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.5%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the CCaro 37Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
43.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for 6 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+55
44.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 55 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.2%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3853% → 59%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
46.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.3%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
45.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+12
46.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 12 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
41.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 47 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
42.9%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Marcus Webb for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 21Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
42.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for 2 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
42.3%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to CJ Marable, broken up by Carlton MartialSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
42.1%
Myles Prosser punt for 45 yds , Kaylon Geiger returns for no gain to the Troy 35 Kaylon Geiger fumbled, recovered by CCaro William StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1744% → 44%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
44.3%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-3
44.3%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+12
43.3%
CJ Marable run for 12 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
44.3%
Bryce Carpenter run for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
44.3%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the Troy 18 Bryce Carpenter fumbled, forced by Carlton Martial, recovered by Troy Antonio ShowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
41.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+10
41.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 10 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
41.1%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+11
40.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 11 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-8
40.4%
Kaleb Barker sacked by C.J. Brewer and Cincir Evans for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 18
OWN 40
-5
41.2%
Barker, Kaleb pass complete to Todd, Reggie for 14 yards to the CCU46 (Johnson, S.;Gallagher, T.), PENALTY TROY ineligible downfield on pass (Bradshaw, Dylan) 5 yards to the TROY35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 23
OWN 35
+23
41.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 23 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
40.2%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
40.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-6
40.4%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Tarron Jackson and Myles Olufemi for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 44Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+39
41.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 44 yds for a touchback TROY Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 7 yds to the CCaro 32Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
42.2%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 32Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
41.0%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
40.7%
Myles Prosser punt for 38 yds , Luke Whittemore returns for 1 yd to the Troy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:0262% → 63%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
38.4%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
37.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Timmie Gibson for 5 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
37.5%
Kaleb Barker run for no gain to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+4
36.8%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
35.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
36.1%
Kaleb Barker run for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
35.9%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke Whittemore, broken up by Jordan MorrisSimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
36.7%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11FG
18 plays · 79 yds · 4:5838% → 43%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
37.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+15
37.4%
Carpenter, B. pass incomplete to Likely, I., PENALTY TROY pass interference (Pettus, Dell) 15 yards to the CCU28, 1ST DOWN CCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
38.1%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
38.0%
Bryce Carpenter run for 4 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+4
37.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to T'Qele Holmes for 4 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Jai WilliamsSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
38.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 9 yds to the CCaro 47Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
39.9%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
40.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jai Williams for 11 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
40.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 11 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
41.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
41.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+16
39.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 16 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
41.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Isaiah Likely, broken up by Melvin TyusSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
41.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to T'Qele Holmes for 6 yds to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
39.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for no gain to the Troy 8Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
43.1%
Massimo Biscardi 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1059% → 60%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
41.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to DK Billingsley, broken up by C.J. BrewerSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
41.5%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+17
41.7%
DK Billingsley run for 17 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
39.9%
Kaleb Barker sacked by C.J. Brewer for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 7:1944% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.8%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Jaivon HeilighSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to CJ Marable, broken up by KJ RobertsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
42.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 11 yds to the CCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
44.5%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
46.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Josh Anderson for 6 yds to the CCaro 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
45.9%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
46.7%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
46.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 8 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
47.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
47.4%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Jai WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
47.2%
Bryce Carpenter run for 6 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+13
47.1%
Bryce Carpenter run for 13 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
49.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
49.0%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
47.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Jeremiah MillerSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
50.4%
Massimo Biscardi 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
44.9%
DK Billingsley run for 12 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
43.9%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
44.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
45.3%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Reggie ToddSimilar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
48.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 3:3848% → 79%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
47.9%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+8
48.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the CCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
48.6%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+8
48.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 8 yds to the CCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
49.0%
Reese White run for 22 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
53.4%
Bryce Carpenter run for 2 yds to the Troy 46 TROY Penalty, substitution infraction (Travis Sailo) to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+40
53.6%
Bryce Carpenter run for 40 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.9%
Jacqez Hairston run for 3 yds for a TD (Bryce Carpenter pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:5830% → 57%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
70.5%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for no gain to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
70.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 5 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+21
71.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 21 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
67.3%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 18 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
64.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 16 yds to the CCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
43.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 19 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1554% → 51%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
53.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Ky'Jon TylerSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
53.7%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+1
52.8%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 23Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 23
-5
51.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 18Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
50.8%
Myles Prosser punt for 34 yds, downed at the Troy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0054% → 47%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
45.9%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+4
47.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 4 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-15
46.0%
Barker, Kaleb pass complete to Clark, Bret for 11 yards to the CCU38 (Lee, R.), PENALTY TROY pass interference (Geiger, Kaylon) 15 yards to the TROY36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 22
OWN 36
+3
51.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
52.9%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ky'Jon Tyler at the CCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0055% → 51%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
54.9%
Bryce Carpenter run for no gain to the CCaro 21Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
54.6%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-5
53.7%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Sam Thompson) to the CCaro 22Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
52.6%
Bryce Carpenter pass incomplete to Isaiah LikelySimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
51.2%
Myles Prosser punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:4454% → 83%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
46.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+18
45.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 18 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
43.6%
Kaleb Barker sacked by Sterling Johnson and Myles Olufemi for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+8
46.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 8 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+5
45.1%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Todd, Reggie (Morris, J.), PENALTY CCU substitution infraction 5 yards to the CCU23, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
16.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 23 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
26.1%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+1
27.9%
Bryce Carpenter run for 1 yd to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+3
26.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Josh Anderson for 3 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
27.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 16 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
31.0%
CJ Marable run for 10 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Will Choloh Jr.) to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
33.0%
Ky'Jon Tyler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 23Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 13
OPP 23
-3
31.8%
Bryce Carpenter run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 16
OPP 26
-18
27.9%
Bryce Carpenter sacked by Carlton Martial for a loss of 18 yards to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 34
OPP 44
0
24.5%
Myles Prosser punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:1386% → 89%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
13.6%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Troy 11Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+15
13.0%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to McClain, Khalil, PENALTY CCU pass interference (Kryst, C.) 15 yards to the TROY26, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
12.3%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
12.0%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
9.7%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+13
10.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 29 , Ky'Jon Tyler returns for 13 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 1:4516% → 85%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
15.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 5 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
17.0%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 6 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
17.7%
TROY Penalty, offside defense (Will Choloh Jr.) to the CCaro 45Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+4
19.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to CJ Marable for 4 yds to the CCaro 49Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
20.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
15.2%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 9 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
20.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+7
17.4%
CJ Marable run for 7 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
20.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+18
17.9%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 18 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
20.5%
Bryce Carpenter pass complete to Ky'Jon Tyler for 6 yds to the Troy 3Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.3%
CJ Marable run for 3 yds for a TD Timeout TROY, clock 00:30 Carpenter, B. pass attempt failed, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Pettus, Dell) 1 yards to the TROY2, NO PLAY. (C. Marable Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q4 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.4%
Carpenter, B. pass attempt failed, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Pettus, Dell) 1 yards to the TROY2, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
70.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 1 yd to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+12
72.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
68.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 8 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST down lat. to Bret Clark for 1 yd to the Troy 47 for a 1ST down to DK Billingsley for 1 yd to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:30
CJ Marable run for 3 yds for a TD Timeout TROY, clock 00:30 Carpenter, B. pass attempt failed, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Pettus, Dell) 1 yards to the TROY2, NO PLAY. (C. Marable Run For Two-point Conversion)
+63.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+31.1
TD · Q4 8:34
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 23 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)
-28.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com