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ULM

UL Monroe 7 at App State 52

APP
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:00 · Jakyle Holmes run for 2 yds to the LaMon 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:09: Kayin White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +2.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:19: Zac Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +2.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 11:14: Chandler Staton 27 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:19: Collin Reed 1 Yd pass from Zac Thomas (Chandler Staton Kick) — APP win probability +4.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:06: Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +3.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:23ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:19ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:14APP 4th & 5 at ULM 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:30ULM 4th & 11 at APP 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:29APP 4th & 6 at ULM 45, up 17
    Close callPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:40ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:12ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 31, down 24
    Close callPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:58ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 21, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:31APP 4th & 9 at ULM 43, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:15ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 3, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:21ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 26, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:20APP 4th & 14 at APP 33, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:47ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 17, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:56ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 23, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:50APP 4th & 7 at ULM 43, up 45
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:09ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:28APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:46APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:19APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:19APP Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:06APP Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:21APP Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:56APP Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 3:5114% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+11
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 11 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
85.9%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-10
85.9%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete, QB hurry by Scott, E.J., PENALTY ULM holding (Ellison, Trace) 10 yards to the ULM25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+15
85.9%
Josh Johnson run for 15 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+29
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 29 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Kayin White for 15 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
85.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 6 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+6
85.9%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.9%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.9%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.8%
Kayin White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4184% → 85%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
84.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 16 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
84.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 59 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
84.5%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
84.5%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-5
84.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 17Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+10
84.6%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
84.6%
Jared Porter punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:5784% → 85%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
83.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 8 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+4
84.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
84.1%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+17
84.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 17 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
84.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 14 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
84.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 17 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
84.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
84.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the LaMon 10Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
84.3%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the LaMon 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
84.4%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 6Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.4%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
84.7%
Josh Johnson run for 18 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
84.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 2 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
84.3%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 24 Josh Johnson fumbled, forced by George Blackstock, recovered by AppSt Josh Thomas , return for 37 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5185% → 88%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
85.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+14
85.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 14 yds to the LaMon 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
85.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the LaMon 2Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 1Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.8%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
86.7%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
86.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 4 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
86.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
86.8%
Jared Porter punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8FG
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4688% → 91%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete, broken up by Kerry StarksSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+2
87.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-4
87.4%
Thomas, Zac rush for 14 yards to the APP31, out-of-bounds (Glass, Tyler), PENALTY APP holding (Watson, K.) 4 yards to the APP21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+8
87.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 8 yds to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
87.7%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+3
87.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 3 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+54
87.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 54 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
88.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
88.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
88.0%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
90.5%
Chandler Staton 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
89.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 4 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
89.5%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
89.4%
Caleb Evans run for 2 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
89.5%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted Shaun Jolly return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
50
-4
91.3%
Raykwon Anderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 49 Raykwon Anderson fumbled, forced by Keilos Swinney, recovered by LaMon Keilos SwinneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
89.5%
Evans, Caleb rush for loss of 9 yards to the ULM40, out-of-bounds (Davis-Gaither), PENALTY ULM holding (Jones, Brandon) 10 yards to the ULM39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+15
90.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Akeem Davis-Gaither) to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
89.3%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
89.4%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-5
89.4%
UL MONROE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
89.8%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
90.1%
Jared Porter punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
90.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+26
90.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 26 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
91.2%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 11
50
-2
91.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 48Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+7
90.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
90.5%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
90.3%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
90.5%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Perry Carter Jr.Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
90.6%
Jared Porter punt for 51 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for no gain to the AppSt 18 UL MONROE Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:2192% → 96%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
91.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 11 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
92.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
92.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 6 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
91.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 5 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
92.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 5 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+32
92.0%
Zac Thomas run for 32 yds to the LaMon 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
92.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Collin Reed 1 Yd pass from Zac Thomas (Chandler Staton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Trey CobbSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
94.9%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
94.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Malik JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
94.8%
Jared Porter punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16END OF HALF
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
96.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Keishawn Watson for 14 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
96.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
96.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-5
96.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+10
96.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 10 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5496% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
96.0%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
96.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
96.1%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+14
96.1%
Zac Thomas run for 14 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
96.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
96.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 10 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
96.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 18 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
96.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
96.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
99.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for no gain to the LaMon 15Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.4%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+1
99.5%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 21Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
99.5%
Jared Porter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Jordan Oliver return for no gain to the LaMon 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
99.5%
Colby Suits pass complete to Zach Jackson for 29 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.5%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Perry Carter Jr.Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.5%
Jakyle Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 43Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
99.5%
Colby Suits pass intercepted Jordan Fehr return for no gain to the AppSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+14
99.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 14 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Keishawn WatsonSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.7%
Raykwon Anderson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 43Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik Williams, broken up by Keilos SwinneySimilar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
99.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaMon 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
99.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+1
99.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 1 yd to the LaMon 7Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 7
-4
99.7%
Colby Suits sacked by Nick Hampton and Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 3Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+14
99.7%
Jared Porter punt for 42 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 14 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.8%
Raykwon Anderson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+5
99.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 5 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
99.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.8%
Malik Williams run for no gain to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
99.8%
Williams, Marc. rush for 3 yards to the ULM16 (Nettles, Brando;Reynaud, Korian), PENALTY ULM offside (Starks, Kerry) 5 yards to the ULM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
99.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+7
99.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaMon 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.8%
UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Traveion Webster) to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Jakyle Holmes run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Colby Suits pass incomplete, broken up by Akeem Davis-GaitherSimilar
Q4 12:21
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Jared Porter punt for 37 yds, downed at the AppSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Cole Garrison) to the AppSt 32Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Nakendrick Clark run for 3 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Nakendrick Clark run for 2 yds to the AppSt 33 Nakendrick Clark fumbled, forced by Keyshawn Johnson, recovered by AppSt Nakendrick ClarkSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+77
99.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 67 yds for a touchback UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Jakyle Holmes run for no gain to the LaMon 10Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
99.9%
Colby Suits run for 7 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Colby Suits run for no gain to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Craig Walker punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 27TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Gabe Montgomery run for 2 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+56
99.9%
Jacob Huesman pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 56 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Malik Jackson for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 23Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Malik Jackson, broken up by Tyler BirdSimilar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Colby Suits pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Craig Walker punt for 35 yds, downed at the AppSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Nakendrick Clark run for 3 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Nakendrick Clark run for 6 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Nakendrick Clark run for 3 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.9%
Gabe Montgomery run for 2 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-3
99.9%
Jacob Huesman run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 43 Jacob Huesman fumbled, recovered by AppSt Jacob HuesmanSimilar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Gabe Montgomery run for 5 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-5
99.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 41 yds, downed at the LaMon 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
100.0%
Jakyle Holmes run for 2 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
100.0%
Jakyle Holmes run for 2 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:19
Collin Reed 1 Yd pass from Zac Thomas (Chandler Staton Kick)
+4.2
TD · Q3 9:06
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
+3.3
FG · Q2 11:14
Chandler Staton 27 yd FG GOOD
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com