2019 · Week 8 · Oct 16, 2019 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:47 · Jack Brooks punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:07: Kawaan Baker 3 Yd Run (Frankie Onate Kick) — USA win probability +9.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Tyler Sumpter 29 Yd Field Goal — TROY win probability +3.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:25: Kaylon Geiger 15 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Tyler Sumpter Kick) — TROY win probability +7.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:54: Frankie Onate 31 Yd Field Goal — USA win probability +2.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:02: Will Sunderland 29 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Sumpter Kick) — TROY win probability +7.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 10:38TROY 4th & 12 at USA 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it86.0%−0.120% to convertField goalTheir call86.1%84% to makePunt85.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 5:15USA 4th & 1 at TROY 1, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snapGo for it15.2%59% to convertField goalTheir call14.7%−0.494% to makePunt13.6%−1.6average punt
- Q2 7:01USA 4th & 3 at TROY 3, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.5%44% to convertField goal15.8%−0.793% to makePunt12.2%−4.3average punt
- Q2 4:10TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call78.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt77.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 1:08TROY 4th & 5 at USA 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.3% before the snapGo for it76.8%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call77.0%92% to makePunt72.7%−4.3average punt
- Q2 0:47USA 4th & 10 at USA 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it17.7%−2.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q2 0:00TROY 4th & 4 at USA 12, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snapGo for it79.0%45% to convertField goalTheir call78.7%−0.386% to makePunt73.9%−5.1average punt
- Q3 12:12USA 4th & 9 at TROY 43, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snapGo for it19.1%−0.132% to convertField goal18.3%−0.828% to makePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q3 7:48USA 4th & 4 at TROY 32, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.3%48% to convertField goal9.8%−0.551% to makePunt9.2%−1.1average punt
- Q3 6:29USA 4th & 11 at TROY 28, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call9.6%60% to makePunt6.9%−2.7average punt
- Q3 2:54USA 4th & 12 at TROY 14, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snapGo for it8.2%−1.120% to convertField goalTheir call9.3%84% to makePunt5.0%−4.3average punt
- Q4 14:12TROY 4th & 4 at USA 19, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 88.3% before the snapGo for it88.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call88.2%−0.177% to makePunt83.9%−4.5average punt
- Q4 12:19USA 4th & 1 at TROY 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%71% to convertField goal2.9%−1.558% to makePunt-0.1%−4.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 14:17TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:07USA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.0%97% to makeGo for two19.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:25TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:02TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:09TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTROYDrive 1FG14 plays · 58 yds · 4:0289% → 88%
USADrive 2FG13 plays · 58 yds · 5:0812% → 14%
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.0%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+14
87.9%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 14 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-5
87.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Hadon Merchant) to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+16
87.5%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 16 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5186% → 88%
Q1 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+6
86.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 6 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+19
86.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 19 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
86.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 11 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
86.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 8 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4DOWNS22 plays · 72 yds · 7:0413% → 14%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.0%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
86.9%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 7 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
86.4%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tre'Veon Hamilton for 4 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+15
86.0%
Johnson, Cephus pass incomplete to Wayne, Jalen, PENALTY TROY pass interference 15 yards to the TROY36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUTHALA.Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
85.8%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 1 yd to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-5
85.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Josh McCulloch) to the Troy 30Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 15
OPP 30
-5
86.3%
Cephus Johnson sacked by Marcus Webb for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 20
OPP 35
+15
86.9%
TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5FUMBLE3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4187% → 86%
Q2 6:13
3RD & 5
OWN 8
-3
86.4%
Kaleb Barker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 3 Kaleb Barker fumbled, recovered by SAlab A.J. DeShazorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6TD1 play · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7INT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5982% → 81%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.4%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted Travis Reed return for no gain to the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1622% → 22%
TROYDrive 9FG7 plays · 46 yds · 2:1282% → 82%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
81.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 19 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
82.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to DK Billingsley for 9 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+18
82.5%
Khalil McClain pass complete to Bret Clark for 18 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1818% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11END OF HALF10 plays · 37 yds · 0:4083% → 85%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
82.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 7 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+11
82.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 11 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
83.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 13 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
83.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 6 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 2:3817% → 18%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.7%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
82.4%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 8 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
81.3%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 16 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
82.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Kaylon Geiger at the Troy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD10 plays · 87 yds · 2:3983% → 92%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
83.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+6
84.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 6 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
85.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 10 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14MISSED FG11 plays · 25 yds · 2:3610% → 9%
Q3 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+14
89.9%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 14 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
89.5%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 6 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+5
90.2%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 5 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
88.9%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2092% → 93%
USADrive 16FG10 plays · 22 yds · 2:5111% → 13%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
89.5%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 13 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
88.6%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jared Wilson for 7 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
88.8%
Johnson, Cephus pass incomplete to Tolbert, Jalen, PENALTY TROY personal foul (Tyus, Melvin) 6 yards to the TROY6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-9
88.8%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 1 yd to the Troy 5 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre'Veon Hamilton) to the Troy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17MISSED FG10 plays · 38 yds · 3:2889% → 89%
USADrive 18INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 55 yds · 1:294% → 4%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+34
96.2%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 34 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+12
95.9%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 12 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-5
96.0%
Cephus Johnson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 42 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Troy 42Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+13
96.4%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Carlos Davis for 13 yds to the Troy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD13 plays · 71 yds · 7:5997% → 99%
USADrive 21FUMBLE8 plays · 43 yds · 2:171% → 1%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
99.5%
Tra Minter run for 7 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST down TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 12
OPP 38
-3
99.5%
Carlos Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 46 Carlos Davis fumbled, forced by Carlton Martial, recovered by Troy TJ HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · -4 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:07
Kawaan Baker 3 Yd Run (Frankie Onate Kick)
-9.5
TD · Q4 14:02
Will Sunderland 29 Yd Interception Return (Tyler Sumpter Kick)
+7.7
TD · Q3 9:25
Kaylon Geiger 15 Yd pass from Kaleb Barker (Tyler Sumpter Kick)
+7