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ULM

UL Monroe 24 at Texas State 14

TXST
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2019 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:58 · Jared Porter punt for 21 yds, downed at the TexSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−11.3Pregame prior−5.9Score differential−5.6Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:03: Calvin Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +6.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:54: Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 62 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +21.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:27: Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 17 — ULM win probability +10.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:20: Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29 — ULM win probability +7.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: Austin Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +10.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:09TXST 4th & 5 at ULM 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:49ULM 4th & 8 at TXST 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:01TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:15TXST 4th & 1 at ULM 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.8%−1.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:31ULM 4th & 7 at TXST 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:31TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:46ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:36TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 29, down 10
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:58ULM 4th & 12 at TXST 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:25TXST 4th & 14 at ULM 42, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    28.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:22ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:02TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:02ULM 4th & 2 at ULM 32, up 3
    Close callPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−5.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:45ULM 4th & 21 at ULM 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−6.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:34TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 42, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:13ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:15ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:03TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:54TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:46ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4762% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
37.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+25
37.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 25 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
37.6%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-2
37.6%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+17
37.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 17 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
37.6%
Caleb Evans run for 19 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
37.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 17 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.3%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
37.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+27
37.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 27 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
37.9%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
37.8%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+15
37.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 15 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
38.0%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
38.0%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+5
37.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 5 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 5
OWN 0
0
37.5%
Jensen, Gresch pass complete to White,Hutch for 10 yards to the ULM24 (Hawley, Austin;Newton, Josh), PENALTY TXST illegal shift off-setting, PENALTY ULM offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
37.8%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
37.1%
Josh Johnson run for 15 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
36.8%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
36.8%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
36.9%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
37.2%
Jared Porter punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
37.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 20 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
37.6%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-1
38.0%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
37.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
37.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
37.2%
Caleb Evans pass intercepted JaShon Waddy return for no gain to the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
38.0%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-18
38.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 18 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+11
36.9%
Jaylin Nelson run for 11 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
36.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:5563% → 71%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
37.1%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 21Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
37.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 15 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
36.5%
Josh Johnson run for 12 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
36.2%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
36.0%
Isaiah Phillips run for 4 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+12
36.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 12 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
35.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah PhillipsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
35.1%
Johnson, Josh rush for no gain to the TXST33 (LewisJr,Clifton), PENALTY TXST personal foul 15 yards to the TXST18, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
35.0%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the TexSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
35.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+10
35.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 10 yds to the TexSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
29.0%
Josh Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1231% → 39%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
30.9%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
30.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Mason Hays for 8 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
31.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 17 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
32.3%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
32.2%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+26
31.6%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 26 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
32.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
32.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
32.3%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
32.1%
Gresch Jensen run for 3 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
32.7%
Calvin Hill run for 10 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.4%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2764% → 68%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
36.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 20 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
35.2%
Josh Johnson run for 17 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
34.0%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
34.0%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+22
34.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 22 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
33.7%
Kayin White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 17
0
33.7%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
32.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
31.7%
Jared Porter 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
31.8%
Gresch Jensen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+22
31.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 22 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
33.4%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 15
OWN 46
-3
32.0%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+3
31.1%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Mason Hays for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
30.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 29 yds, downed at the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.1%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
30.8%
Josh Johnson run for 12 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
29.7%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
30.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
30.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jahquan Bloomfield for 8 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
31.0%
Jared Porter punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2829% → 30%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.1%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
29.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
29.1%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
29.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaMon 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1871% → 73%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
29.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
29.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Perry Carter Jr. for 9 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
25.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
26.6%
Jared Porter punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.7%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
29.1%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Javen Banks, broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
28.2%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 15 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
30.1%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Javen Banks for 8 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+6
31.1%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
31.1%
Gresch Jensen run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 45 Gresch Jensen fumbled, forced by Austin Hawley, recovered by LaMon Austin HawleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
26.8%
Josh Johnson run for 21 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
26.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+3
26.8%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
26.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
27.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
28.5%
Jared Porter punt for 21 yds, downed at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
26.8%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 12
OWN 13
0
26.8%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+39
25.8%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Javen Banks for 39 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
29.6%
Jensen, Gresch sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TXST46 (Hawley, Austin), PENALTY ULM holding (Newton, Josh) 10 yards to the ULM38, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
29.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
29.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-6
29.1%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Sam Miller for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 14
OPP 42
+4
26.2%
Seamus O'Kelly pass complete to Kumonde Hines for 4 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
25.8%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
25.7%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
26.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Perry Carter Jr., broken up by Anthony J. TaylorSimilar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
27.1%
Jared Porter punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
25.6%
Jensen, Gresch sacked for 66 yards to the ULM14 (Veasley, Jaylen;Starks, Kerry), PENALTY ULM holding 10 yards to the TXST30, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
26.1%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+5
25.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Calvin Hill for 5 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
24.5%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
23.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
23.5%
Markis McCray run for 3 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
22.2%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-5
22.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+13
22.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 13 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
21.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
21.7%
Isaiah Phillips run for no gain to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+32
22.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 32 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
21.0%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
21.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 5 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+26
21.8%
Josh Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 38 Josh Johnson fumbled, forced by Nico Ezidore, recovered by TexSt Clifton Lewis Jr. , return for 26 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
43.2%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 62 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:4761% → 59%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
39.0%
Isaiah Phillips run for no gain to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
39.3%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah PhillipsSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+8
40.7%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
41.5%
Jared Porter punt for 47 yds , Hutch White returns for no gain to the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
43.3%
Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
43.1%
Tyler Vitt sacked by Kerry Starks for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
41.4%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Seth CaillouetSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
40.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0063% → 58%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
36.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+15
36.8%
Evans, Caleb rush for 7 yards to the TXST48 (Daniels,Nikolas;Patton,Caeveon), PENALTY TXST personal foul 15 yards to the TXST40, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
36.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for no gain to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
36.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+3
37.5%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 12
OPP 42
-5
37.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 21
OWN 49
0
41.6%
Jared Porter punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0042% → 44%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
41.8%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
41.0%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr., broken up by Corey StraughterSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+25
39.4%
Tyler Vitt run for 25 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
42.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
43.3%
Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+6
41.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
43.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, downed at the LaMon 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
18 plays · 86 yds · 6:4167% → 96%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
33.4%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+7
33.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 7 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
32.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+6
33.3%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
33.2%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+15
32.9%
Evans, Caleb pass incomplete to Jackson, Zach, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Winters, K) 15 yards to the ULM45, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
29.8%
Austin Vaughn run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
29.1%
Austin Vaughn run for 6 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
29.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+8
29.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 8 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
21.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
21.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+4
23.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Malik Jackson for 4 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+5
17.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
13.8%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
3.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
3.9%
Tyler Vitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
3.8%
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jaylin Nelson for 4 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+25
3.8%
Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Corey Straughter return for 25 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
3.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 7Similar
Q4 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:54
Tyler Vitt pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 62 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
+21.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:27
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 17
-10.2
TD · Q4 1:46
Austin Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com