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APP

App State 17 at Louisiana 7

UL
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 9, 2019 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-4.7UL 46.3%Chandler Staton 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q3 5:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:26 · Chandler Staton 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−6.5Pregame prior+2.6Score differential−3.1Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:08: Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 14 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +14.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:27: Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 47 — APP win probability +5.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:31: Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29 — APP win probability +6.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:30: Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 7 — APP win probability +6.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:55: Zac Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +9.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:48UL 4th & 9 at UL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:13APP 4th & 23 at APP 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03UL 4th & 5 at UL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:22UL 4th & 10 at UL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:29APP 4th & 13 at APP 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:05UL 4th & 1 at APP 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−9.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:03APP 4th & 2 at APP 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:52APP 4th & 5 at APP 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:18UL 4th & 4 at APP 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−9.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:26APP 4th & 6 at UL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−10.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:21UL 4th & 10 at UL 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:19APP 4th & 8 at APP 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−3.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:41UL 4th & 17 at UL 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−4.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:32APP 4th & 7 at APP 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:06UL 4th & 1 at UL 47, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.1 ptsPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−5.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:56APP 4th & 4 at UL 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−3.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−7.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:40UL 4th & 7 at APP 34, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:05APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:08UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:55APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5758% → 58%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-12
57.8%
Levi Lewis sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 12 yards to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 22
OWN 27
+1
57.8%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 21
OWN 28
+12
57.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Trey Ragas for 12 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
57.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 59 yds, downed at the AppSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:1742% → 42%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
58.0%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+12
58.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 12 yds to the AppSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
57.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 11 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
57.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+26
57.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 26 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
57.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
57.4%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Collin ReedSimilar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-14
57.5%
Zac Thomas sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 14 yards to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 23
OWN 43
0
58.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5858% → 58%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
58.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 11 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
58.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
58.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
58.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 5
OWN 43
+51
57.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 51 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 2:5042% → 47%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
57.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+47
58.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 47 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
56.9%
Zac Thomas run for 27 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
56.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
56.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+4
57.1%
Zac Thomas run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
53.2%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:2855% → 53%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
54.5%
Raymond Calais run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-5
54.5%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
53.7%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 15 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
54.4%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-2
54.9%
Levi Lewis sacked by Jordan Fehr for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-2
53.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
52.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:3647% → 47%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
52.7%
Raykwon Anderson run for 7 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
51.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
51.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+2
51.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-9
51.2%
Zac Thomas sacked by Kris Moncrief for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+14
52.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 51 yds , Chris Smith returns for 14 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7DOWNS
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:1052% → 50%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
52.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 22 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
53.7%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
53.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+9
53.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 9 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
54.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 15 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
54.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
54.3%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+12
52.9%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Jackson, Jarrod, PENALTY APPALCHAN pass interference 12 yards to the APPALCHAN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.7%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the AppSt 2Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus BradleySimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.5%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the AppSt 1Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:5251% → 55%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+14
49.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Henry Pearson for 14 yds to the AppSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
48.9%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
47.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+5
47.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
46.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
45.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+6
45.6%
Zac Thomas run for 6 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
44.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 8 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
43.6%
Raykwon Anderson run for no gain to the AppSt 46Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
43.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Darrynton EvansSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
44.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 3:4245% → 62%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
44.5%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+21
44.3%
Raymond Calais run for 21 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
44.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
44.3%
Raymond Calais run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
46.0%
LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (O'Cyrus Torrence) to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+15
44.0%
Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Williams, Jalen, PENALTY APPALCHAN pass interference (Jolly, Shaun) 15 yards to the APPALCHAN47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE.Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
46.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 3 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+8
46.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
46.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 19 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
47.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
62.1%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 14 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
53.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 10 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5346% → 44%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
54.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Collin ReedSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
54.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 7 yds to the AppSt 37Similar
Q3 14:28
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-2
53.7%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+7
56.1%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds , Eric Garror returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:2259% → 59%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
59.0%
Trey Ragas run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
50
0
61.6%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
50
0
61.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Nick RalstonSimilar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 10
50
+19
58.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 19 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
62.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
62.6%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
61.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
59.4%
Kenneth Almendares 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jordan Fehr Josh Thomas return for 11 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:3545% → 54%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
54.9%
Raykwon Anderson run for 23 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
51.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 4 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
51.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+3
51.5%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
50.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
50.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+10
51.2%
Zac Thomas run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
48.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
49.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+4
51.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
46.3%
Chandler Staton 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4153% → 46%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
52.7%
Raymond Calais run for 8 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
53.2%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-4
52.4%
Raymond Calais run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 48Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 5
OPP 48
-5
48.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
46.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5155% → 52%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
45.3%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 11Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
45.5%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+6
46.9%
Zac Thomas run for 6 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+5
48.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds , Eric Garror returns for 5 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3251% → 44%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
49.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-8
48.0%
Levi Lewis sacked by George Blackstock and Akeem Davis-Gaither for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 39Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
44.2%
Rhys Byrns punt for 37 yds, downed at the AppSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3656% → 53%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
44.1%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
44.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 25Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+2
45.3%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
46.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 35 yds, downed at the LaLaf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5948% → 47%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
48.0%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
50.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Calif GossettSimilar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
44.9%
Levi Lewis run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
46.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 50 yds, downed at the AppSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
22 plays · 97 yds · 9:5559% → 96%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
41.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
40.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
37.8%
Zac Thomas run for 2 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+8
38.4%
Zac Thomas run for 8 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
35.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
33.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 4 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
31.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
50
+3
30.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-3
29.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 10
50
+10
30.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 10 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
25.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
24.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 3 yds to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+1
24.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+4
26.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 4 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
19.8%
Zac Thomas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+1
18.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+3
18.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+15
20.9%
Thomas, Zac pass incomplete to Sutton, Corey, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APPALCHAN.Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
14.1%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
4.3%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:554% → 3%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
4.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 7 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
4.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 4 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
4.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 21 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
4.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Elijah Mitchell for 3 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
4.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jarrod JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
3.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Cassius AllenSimilar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
3.0%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:08
Levi Lewis pass complete to Nick Ralston for 14 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+14.2
TD · Q4 1:55
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-9.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:30
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 7
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com