Try the model
NICH

Nicholls 3 at Texas State 24

TXST
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:05 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NicSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior+6.6Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:20: Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 12 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +13.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 8:38: Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43 — TXST win probability +10.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:42: Gresch Jensen run for 1 yd for a TD NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +11.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:22: Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 1 yd to the TexSt 21 — TXST win probability +9.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:02: Gresch Jensen pass complete to Javen Banks for 77 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK) — TXST win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NICH 4th & 2 at NICH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:15TXST 4th & 13 at NICH 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:15NICH 4th & 14 at NICH 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:35TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:47NICH 4th & 4 at TXST 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:05NICH 4th & 7 at TXST 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:27NICH 4th & 4 at TXST 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:05TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:48NICH 4th & 18 at NICH 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:17NICH 4th & 1 at NICH 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:52TXST 4th & 1 at NICH 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−2.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:22TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NICH 4th & 4 at NICH 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:55NICH 4th & 4 at TXST 47, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:25TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 48, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:20NICH 4th & 8 at NICH 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 9:20TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:42TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:02TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.2%
Julien Gums run for 3 yds to the NicSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
60.2%
Chase Fourcade run for 6 yds to the NicSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
60.2%
Julien Gums run for a loss of 1 yard to the NicSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
60.2%
Winston Jones punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:1260% → 61%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
60.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-1
60.3%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+12
60.2%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 12 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
60.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
60.4%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 8
50
+15
60.4%
Sheread,J rush for loss of 9 yards to the TXST41 (Laiche, Sully), PENALTY NICH face mask (Johnson, Kevin) 15 yards to the NICH35, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
60.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 19 yds to the NicSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
60.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 8 yds to the NicSt 8Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 2
OPP 8
-5
60.5%
Jensen, Gresch pass incomplete to LewisJr,Clifton, PENALTY TXST illegal procedure (Rowland,Jacob) 5 yards to the NICH13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-15
60.5%
Jensen, Gresch sacked for loss of 5 yards to the NICH18 (Laiche, Sully), PENALTY TXST personal foul (Jordan,Reece) 15 yards to the NICH28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 22
OPP 28
+12
60.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 12 yds to the NicSt 16Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-3
60.4%
Gresch Jensen sacked by Sully Laiche for a loss of 3 yards to the NicSt 19Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
60.8%
Joshua Rowland 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.1%
Chase Fourcade sacked by Nikolas Daniels for a loss of 5 yards to the NicSt 20Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
61.2%
Julien Gums run for 1 yd to the NicSt 21Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
61.5%
Chase Fourcade pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
61.7%
Winston Jones punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
61.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
61.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 3 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+1
61.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
61.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds, downed at the NicSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 5FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 6:4239% → 42%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
61.4%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 11 yds to the NicSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
61.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 4 yds to the NicSt 33Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
61.1%
Chase Fourcade pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+14
61.5%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dontrell Taylor for 14 yds to the NicSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.5%
Dontrell Taylor run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
60.4%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 6 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
60.4%
Julien Gums run for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
60.4%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Mason Roberts for 3 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
60.4%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Mason RobertsSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+11
61.0%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 11 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
59.3%
Chase Fourcade pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
59.5%
Chase Fourcade run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+6
60.1%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Tahj Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
-5
60.6%
NICHOLLS ST Penalty, false start (Jordan Talley) to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
58.4%
Gunnar Jones 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6INT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:0160% → 62%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
60.4%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
60.4%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Mason HaysSimilar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
59.6%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 9 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
62.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
61.6%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 6 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+3
62.1%
Gresch Jensen pass intercepted Kairon Brooks return for 3 yds to the NicSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
57.5%
Julien Gums run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 8
50
0
57.3%
Chase Fourcade pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 8
50
+4
57.9%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dontrell Taylor for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
58.5%
Winston Jones punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.2%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
61.2%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Micah HiltsSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+2
60.3%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
59.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NicSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
57.5%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Mason Roberts for 17 yds to the NicSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
55.8%
Taylor, Dontrel rush for 10 yards to the TXST42 (Pacheco,Alvin;Coleman,M.), PENALTY NICH holding (James, Jeremiah) 10 yards to the NICH38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 20
OWN 38
0
57.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for no gain to the NicSt 38Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 20
OWN 38
0
57.4%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Dai'Jean DixonSimilar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 20
OWN 38
+2
57.9%
Chase Fourcade run for 2 yds to the NicSt 40Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
59.0%
Winston Jones puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10KICKOFF
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
63.2%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+12
62.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 12 yds to the NicSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jah'Marae ShereadSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
63.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the NicSt 37Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+1
63.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 1 yd to the NicSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0943% → 43%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
57.1%
Dontrell Taylor run for a loss of 9 yards to the NicSt 16Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+14
57.3%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 14 yds to the NicSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
56.8%
Dontrell Taylor run for 2 yds to the NicSt 32Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
56.5%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Jeremy Rounds for no gain to the NicSt 32Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+7
57.8%
Chase Fourcade run for 7 yds to the NicSt 39Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
56.9%
Winston Jones punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
61.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:3260% → 77%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
59.7%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+10
60.1%
Caleb Twyford run for 10 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
60.7%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+11
60.8%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 11 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
62.4%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 9 yds to the NicSt 42Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
63.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the NicSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
62.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 7 yds to the NicSt 33Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
63.6%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Hutch White for 2 yds to the NicSt 31Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
62.5%
Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the NicSt 31Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
61.1%
Gresch Jensen run for 1 yd to the NicSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
63.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the NicSt 23Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+11
63.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 11 yds to the NicSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
63.6%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Caleb TwyfordSimilar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
77.3%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 12 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 14INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 33%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.8%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dontrell Taylor for 9 yds to the NicSt 34Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 1
OPP 0
+27
66.6%
Chase Fourcade pass intercepted JaShon Waddy return for 12 yds to the TexSt 46 TEXAS STATE Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the TexSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:5677% → 88%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
76.7%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+32
75.9%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 32 yds to the NicSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
77.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the NicSt 22Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
77.5%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Hutch WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+21
76.5%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 21 yds to the NicSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.2%
Gresch Jensen run for 1 yd for a TD NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 55 yds · 0:0015% → 19%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.8%
Dontrell Taylor run for 9 yds to the NicSt 34Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
83.3%
Dontrell Taylor run for 1 yd to the NicSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
84.0%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Mason Roberts for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
50
+4
82.7%
Julien Gums run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+10
82.8%
Chase Fourcade run for 10 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
82.7%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dai'Jean Dixon for 12 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
81.3%
Kendall Bussey run for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-1
81.3%
Chase Fourcade run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 20 Chase Fourcade fumbled, forced by Nikolas Daniels, recovered by TexSt Emmanuel Galvan-VazquezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
91.1%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
91.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
90.9%
Gresch Jensen pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
90.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mason Roberts at the NicSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0712% → 11%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
87.8%
Dontrell Taylor run for 2 yds to the NicSt 36Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
87.8%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to Dontrell Taylor for 4 yds to the NicSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
89.0%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Dai'Jean DixonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
89.5%
Winston Jones punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:4593% → 98%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
92.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+77
98.2%
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Javen Banks for 77 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Dai'Jean Dixon, broken up by Markeveon ColemanSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.2%
Julien Gums run for 3 yds to the NicSt 28Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
98.3%
Chase Fourcade pass complete to K.J. Franklin for 19 yds to the NicSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
98.1%
Chase Fourcade run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 7
50
+3
98.1%
Julien Gums run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
98.2%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Dai'Jean DixonSimilar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
98.2%
Winston Jones punt for 46 yds, downed at the TexSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.5%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
98.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 7 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+21
98.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 21 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
98.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
98.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
98.6%
Gresch Jensen run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
98.6%
Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.6%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
98.6%
Jaylin Nelson run for 6 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
98.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.3%
Kendall Bussey run for 4 yds to the NicSt 19Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
99.3%
Kendall Bussey run for 8 yds to the NicSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.3%
Kendall Bussey run for 2 yds to the NicSt 29Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Morell BartholomewSimilar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Chase Fourcade pass incomplete to Stefano Guarisco, broken up by Jarron MorrisSimilar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Winston Jones punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Jaylin Nelson run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-1
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:20
Gresch Jensen pass complete to Micah Hilts for 12 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q3 6:42
Gresch Jensen run for 1 yd for a TD NICHOLLS ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
+11.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:38
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43
+10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com