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USA

South Alabama 17 at UL Monroe 30

ULM
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:02 · Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+4.8Home team on offense+29.2Score differential+22.9Garbage-time factor+7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:39: Cephus Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Frankie Onate KICK) — USA win probability +3.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:12: Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 52 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK) — ULM win probability +7.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:00: Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 21 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter PAT MISSED) — ULM win probability +8.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:02: Caleb Evans run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — ULM win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:00: Cephus Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Frankie Onate KICK) — USA win probability +4.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 3 at USA 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:10USA 4th & 1 at USA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:34ULM 4th & 5 at USA 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:34USA 4th & 13 at USA 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:54USA 4th & 10 at ULM 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 3 at USA 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:42ULM 4th & 17 at ULM 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:27USA 4th & 4 at ULM 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−7.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:27ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:11USA 4th & 7 at USA 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:50ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:23USA 4th & 19 at USA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−3.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 7 at USA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:00USA 4th & 9 at USA 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:32ULM 4th & 4 at USA 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.4
    64% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−5.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:02USA 4th & 3 at ULM 22, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:49ULM 4th & 8 at USA 44, up 13
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:32USA 4th & 3 at USA 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:32USA 4th & 3 at USA 38, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:39USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:10ULM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:12ULM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:00ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:02ULM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:00USA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
85.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 20 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
85.0%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
85.0%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+3
85.0%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
85.0%
Jared Porter punt for 38 yds, downed at the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 5:3915% → 19%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
84.6%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
84.6%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+16
84.6%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 16 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
84.5%
Jared Wilson run for 9 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+3
84.5%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
84.5%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 4
50
+7
84.5%
Cephus Johnson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
84.5%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+27
84.4%
Cephus Johnson run for 27 yds to the LaMon 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
84.4%
Cephus Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
84.4%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.6%
Cephus Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Frankie Onate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2981% → 83%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.1%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
81.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 12 yds to the LaMon 41 UL MONROE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+49
81.3%
Josh Johnson run for 49 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
83.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 20 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4INT
13 plays · 62 yds · 6:1018% → 21%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.2%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
82.1%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 5 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
82.0%
Cephus Johnson run for 5 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
81.9%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
81.7%
Carlos Davis run for 1 yd to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-6
81.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal procedure (-6 Yards) to the SAlab 37Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+11
82.3%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 11 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
82.0%
Cephus Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
50
+40
81.6%
Tra Minter run for 40 yds to the LaMon 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
81.4%
Jared Wilson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
81.4%
Cephus Johnson sacked by Rashaad Harding for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
78.9%
Cephus Johnson pass intercepted, touchback. Corey Straughter return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2080% → 80%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
80.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 9 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
80.8%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
80.4%
Caleb Evans sacked by Rocel McWilliams for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+8
80.2%
Caleb Evans run for 8 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+16
80.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 16 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
81.3%
Evans, Caleb pass intercepted by Gallmon, Keith at the USA3, Gallmon, Keith return to the USA6, PENALTY USA pass interference (Reed, Travis) 15 yards to the USA33, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.5%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+21
81.5%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 21 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
81.5%
Caleb Evans run for 3 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.5%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach Jackson, broken up by Travis ReedSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
79.7%
Jared Porter 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.3%
Tra Minter run for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
78.6%
Carlos Davis run for 12 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
78.1%
Carlos Davis run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
78.0%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-5
78.1%
Minter, Tra rush for 4 yards to the ULM43 (Day, Chase;Veasley, Jaylen), PENALTY USA illegal shift (Taylor,Khameron) 5 yards to the USA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-5
78.5%
Cephus Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
79.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 1:4579% → 85%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
78.9%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
78.8%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+18
78.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 18 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
85.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 52 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 3:1816% → 14%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
84.1%
Cephus Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+16
83.7%
Tra Minter run for 16 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
83.3%
Cephus Johnson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 3
50
-2
82.5%
John Tank Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+5
83.1%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Khameron Taylor for 5 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.7%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
83.0%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+2
84.1%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 2 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-5
85.4%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
86.3%
Jack Brooks punt for 34 yds, downed at the LaMon 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
86.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Chandler Whitfield for 2 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.3%
Cephus Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
84.1%
Kawaan Baker run for 5 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
84.2%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Davyn FlenordSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
84.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Brandius Batiste at the LaMon 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
85.2%
Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
85.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Travis ReedSimilar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-11
84.5%
Caleb Evans sacked by Nick Mobley for a loss of 11 yards to the LaMon 9Similar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 17
OWN 9
-7
83.7%
Jared Porter punt for 43 yds , Tra Minter returns for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:5116% → 20%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
84.4%
Johnson, Cephus pass incomplete, PENALTY ULM offside (Sisco, Cortez) 5 yards to the USA46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+4
84.0%
Jared Wilson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 1
50
+3
83.4%
Jared Wilson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
83.7%
Cephus Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+16
83.7%
Tra Minter run for 16 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
82.7%
Tra Minter run for 16 yds to the LaMon 12 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (6 yards) (Nick Ingram) to the LaMon 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
82.7%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
82.7%
Cephus Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 2Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
83.5%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 4Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
79.9%
Frankie Onate 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
83.3%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+22
83.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 22 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
84.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 4 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-2
84.8%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
83.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Markis McCraySimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
82.4%
Jared Porter punt for 52 yds, downed at the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
81.3%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 7Similar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+2
81.5%
Cephus Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
82.4%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+7
82.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 48 yds , Brandius Batiste returns for 7 yds to the LaMon 16 UL MONROE Penalty, illegal block (Jonathan Hodoh) to the LaMon 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
83.8%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 6 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
84.6%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
83.2%
Jared Porter punt for 48 yds , Tra Minter returns for no gain to the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
81.1%
Cephus Johnson sacked by Rashaad Harding for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 8Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+29
81.6%
Tra Minter run for 14 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Josh Newton) to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.0%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Zac CrosbySimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
80.3%
Jared Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-7
81.9%
Cephus Johnson sacked by Donald Louis Jr. and Logan Latin for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
82.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaMon 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:0687% → 95%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
87.2%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
87.7%
Caleb Evans run for 9 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
87.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 7 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
88.7%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
88.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
88.7%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+1
88.2%
Markis McCray run for 1 yd to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-5
87.2%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Bobby Reynolds) to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+12
86.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 12 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
95.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 21 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.5%
Johnson, Cephus pass complete to Tolbert, Jalen for 11 yards to the USA36, PENALTY USA illegal motion (Merchant, Hadon) 5 yards to the USA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
92.6%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 15 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.8%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
92.0%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-10
92.6%
Johnson, Cephus pass complete to Flenord, Davyn for 8 yards to the USA43, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USA holding (Albritton, Roy) 10 yards to the USA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+11
92.8%
Cephus Johnson run for 11 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds, downed at the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3095% → 99%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.8%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-12
95.1%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 35 UL MONROE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Bobby Reynolds) to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+31
94.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 31 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
95.3%
Markis McCray run for 17 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
95.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
95.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
95.2%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh Pederson, broken up by A.J. DeShazorSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+13
94.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 13 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.1%
Caleb Evans run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:021% → 6%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.1%
Cephus Johnson sacked by Mason Husmann for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
99.1%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 15 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.1%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 5 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
99.1%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 5 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
99.1%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 13 yds to the ULMONROE 41 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, personal foul (Jaylen Veasley) to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.9%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
98.9%
Cephus Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 10
OPP 0
+5
99.0%
Johnson, Cephus pass complete to Baker, Kawaan for 13 yards to the ULM16 (Husmann, Mason), PENALTY ULM offside 5 yards to the ULM24, NO PLAY, PENALTY USA unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY ULM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:02
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+2
99.0%
Cephus Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+5
99.0%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
98.9%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Davyn Flenord for 9 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+8
94.3%
Cephus Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Frankie Onate KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1197% → 98%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.4%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
98.0%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
98.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Devin RocketteSimilar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
97.8%
Jared Porter punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
97.8%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 2 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
97.7%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
97.8%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Kawaan Baker, broken up by Cortez Sisco Jr.Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+5
97.8%
Johnson, Cephus pass complete to Sutherland,Cade for 5 yards to the USA21 (Ingram, Nick), PENALTY ULM offside (Starks, Kerry) 5 yards to the USA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 3
OWN 21
+10
97.7%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Tra Minter for 10 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
97.5%
Cephus Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
97.7%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Jalen TolbertSimilar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+7
97.8%
Cephus Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+1
97.5%
Cephus Johnson pass complete to Devin Voisin for 1 yd to the SAlab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:00
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 21 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter PAT MISSED)
+8.1
TD · Q2 4:12
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 52 yds for a TD, (Jared Porter KICK)
+7.1
TD · Q4 3:00
Cephus Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Frankie Onate KICK)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com