Try the model
CCU

Coastal Carolina 37 at App State 56

APP
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the CCaro 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:52: Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 14 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — CCU win probability +11.0 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:59: Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +5.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:45: Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +6.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:33: Daetrich Harrington run for 22 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:49: Fred Payton run for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CCU win probability +6.4 pts (now 12%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 7:36CCU 4th & 10 at CCU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:27CCU 4th & 16 at CCU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:22APP 4th & 15 at APP 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00APP 4th & 5 at CCU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:31CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 9 at CCU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    88.9%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:50CCU 4th & 13 at CCU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:56CCU 4th & 6 at APP 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 11 at APP 49, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:59CCU 4th & 9 at CCU 26, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:15APP 4th & 1 at CCU 30, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:55CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 48, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:01CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:36APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:27APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:23CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:15APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:52CCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:59APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:45APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:33APP Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:49CCU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:59APP Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:55APP Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 0:27CCU Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5914% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
86.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 12 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
86.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 2 yds to the CCaro 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
86.0%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jai Williams for 7 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+10
86.0%
Jacqez Hairston run for 10 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
86.0%
Fred Payton run for 3 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+15
86.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Caleb Spurlin) to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
86.0%
CJ Marable run for 6 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+8
86.0%
Fred Payton run for 8 yds to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
86.0%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the AppSt 6Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
83.2%
Fred Payton run for 6 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2084% → 84%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
83.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Darrynton Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 33Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
83.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+35
83.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 35 yds to the CCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
84.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+1
84.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the CCaro 19Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
83.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 3 yds to the CCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
84.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 8 yds to the CCaro 8Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
84.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.6%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Myles Prosser punt, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:5084% → 86%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+48
84.0%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 48 yds to the CCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
84.2%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCaro 11Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
85.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Collin Reed for 11 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 25Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
85.3%
Fred Payton sacked by Akeem Davis-Gaither for a loss of 8 yards to the CCaro 19Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
85.4%
Myles Prosser punt for 45 yds, downed at the AppSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
85.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+11
85.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
85.5%
Williams, Malik pass incomplete to Hennigan, T., PENALTY APP holding (Sutton, Corey) 10 yards to the APP42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+5
85.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
85.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
84.9%
Zac Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 15
OWN 47
+23
84.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 38 yds, downed at the APPALCHAN 15 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the CCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:1616% → 20%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
84.2%
CJ Marable run for 19 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
83.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 9 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+42
79.6%
CJ Marable run for 42 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8TD
15 plays · 64 yds · 6:0182% → 84%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
81.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 19 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
82.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the CCaro 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+9
82.2%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 9 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-6
82.4%
Zac Thomas sacked by Tarron Jackson and Sterling Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the CCaro 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+1
81.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 1 yd to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+10
81.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 10 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+13
81.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 13 yds to the CCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
82.4%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (Noah Hannon) to the CCaro 20Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+7
82.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 7 yds to the CCaro 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
82.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds to the CCaro 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
82.1%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 4 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.4%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the CCaro 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
82.4%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the CCaro 1Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2317% → 29%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
83.4%
CJ Marable run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 23Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
83.5%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 12 yds to the CCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
83.1%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
82.8%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 14 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
82.1%
Fred Payton run for 3 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
82.2%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-5
82.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jaivon Heiligh) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 12
50
+17
83.2%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jai Williams for 17 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
81.5%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
81.4%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Larry Collins Jr.Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+16
82.3%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 16 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
71.3%
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 14 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:4477% → 84%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+55
76.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 55 yds to the CCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
79.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 8 yds to the CCaro 14Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+13
79.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 13 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
83.9%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Cincir Evans) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1817% → 16%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
82.9%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Larry Collins Jr.Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+1
83.0%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the CCaro 4Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+1
83.3%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 5Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 8
OWN 5
+12
83.6%
Myles Prosser punt for 36 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 12 yds to the CCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:3684% → 91%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
84.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 9 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+5
84.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Myles Olufemi) to the CCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
84.3%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the CCaro 15Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Reese White run for no gain to the CCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.8%
Virgil, Jalen rush for 5 yards to the APP30 (Brewer, C.), PENALTY APP holding (Hodges, Cooper) 5 yards to the APP20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+19
89.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 19 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
90.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 7 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+7
90.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 7 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
90.3%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
90.2%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+3
89.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 3 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
89.3%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
89.9%
Fred Payton run for 13 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
89.8%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
89.9%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jai WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
90.0%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Isaiah Likely) to the CCaro 19Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+1
90.1%
Fred Payton run for 1 yd to the CCaro 20 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
90.3%
Myles Prosser punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:2891% → 97%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
91.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the CCaro 38Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
91.4%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+8
91.1%
Daetrich Harrington run for 8 yds to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
91.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 4 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
97.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 22 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 6:373% → 5%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.6%
CJ Marable run for 1 yd to the CCaro 26Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+26
96.6%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 26 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.4%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+6
96.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to T'Qele Holmes for 6 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
96.4%
Payton, F. pass complete to Miller, J. for 25 yards to the APP13 (Jones, Steven), PENALTY CCU holding (Carter, T.) 10 yards to the APP48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 20
OPP 48
+7
96.5%
CJ Marable run for 7 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+6
96.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to T'Qele Holmes for 6 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+16
96.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 16 yds to the AppSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
96.0%
Fred Payton sacked by Elijah Diarrassouba and Noel Cook for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 25Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+6
96.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 6 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+4
96.4%
Fred Payton pass complete to Larry Collins Jr. for 4 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
95.1%
Massimo Biscardi 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
96.4%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Mallory Claybourne return for 35 yds to the APPALCHAN 21 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (-14 Yards) to the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:456% → 12%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
94.3%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the AppSt 11Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
94.3%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jaivon Heiligh, broken up by Shemar Jean-CharlesSimilar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
87.9%
Fred Payton run for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4393% → 91%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
50
-3
92.5%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+3
92.3%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
50
-1
92.0%
Zac Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 49 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
91.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21INT TD
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:039% → 3%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
91.0%
Fred Payton run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 8Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+3
91.3%
Fred Payton run for 3 yds to the CCaro 11Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 9
OWN 11
-5
91.3%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 6Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 14
OWN 6
+24
97.2%
Fred Payton pass intercepted for a TD Shaun Jolly return for 24 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.0%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (Fred Payton) to the CCaro 20Similar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
97.0%
CJ Marable run for 4 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
97.0%
Fred Payton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
97.1%
Fred Payton pass complete to CJ Marable for 2 yds to the CCaro 26Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+25
97.0%
Myles Prosser punt for 38 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 25 yds to the CCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
10 plays · 39 yds · 6:2098% → 100%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
98.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the CCaro 35Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
98.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the CCaro 31Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
98.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the CCaro 30Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
98.2%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the CCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
98.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+2
98.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the CCaro 20Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+7
98.3%
Zac Thomas run for 7 yds to the CCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
98.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the CCaro 6Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+4
98.9%
Zac Thomas run for 4 yds to the CCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:280% → 2%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 14 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 9 yds to the CCaro 48Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-5
99.9%
Payton, F. pass complete to Marable, CJ for 5 yards to the APP47, out-of-bounds (Bird, Tyler), PENALTY CCU IB (Likely, I.) 5 yards to the CCU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
Fred Payton run for 4 yds to the CCaro 48 Fred Payton fumbled, forced by Steven Jones, recovered by CCaroSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
99.9%
CJ Marable run for no gain to the CCaro 48Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
CJ Marable run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Fred Payton pass incomplete to Jai WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
50
+20
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 20 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
99.9%
Fred Payton pass complete to Shadell Bell for 16 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.7%
Fred Payton pass complete to Jeremiah Miller for 14 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
98.4%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jack Franklin) to the CCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Keishawn Watson, broken up by Myles OlufemiSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the CCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:52
Fred Payton pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 14 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-11
TD · Q3 0:49
Fred Payton run for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-6.4
TD · Q2 0:45
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com