2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadTXSO aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreTXSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:07 · Richard Garcia III 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:18: Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — TXSO win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- FG · Q1 7:14: Richard Garcia III 44 yd FG GOOD — TXSO win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TXSO has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:09: Levi Lewis pass complete to Trey Ragas for 9 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:39: Raymond Calais run for 16 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — TXSO win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:08: Trey Ragas run for 34 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TXSO made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
- Q1 13:10TXSO 4th & 5 at TXSO 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 7:14TXSO 4th & 10 at UL 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call0.9%64% to makePunt0.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:01TXSO 4th & 18 at TXSO 33, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00TXSO 4th & 15 at TXSO 20, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 13:08TXSO 4th & 4 at TXSO 31, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 10:56TXSO 4th & 4 at UL 47, down 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:07TXSO 4th & 10 at UL 22, down 46Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%72% to makePunt-0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:42TXSO 4th & 2 at TXSO 43, down 50Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 10:00TXSO 4th & 4 at UL 37, down 50Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%48% to convertField goal0.0%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:12TXSO 4th & 3 at TXSO 42, down 57Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:27TXSO 4th & 7 at TXSO 28, down 64Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 4:12TXSO 4th & 7 at TXSO 44, down 71Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 13:18UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:46UL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:09UL Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:39UL Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:08UL Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:56UL Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:16UL Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:42UL Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:12UL Touchdown, up 56 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:27UL Touchdown, up 63 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:12UL Touchdown, up 70 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1TD6 plays · 63 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 15 yds to the TexSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Ladarius Owens for 5 yds to the TexSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3TD8 plays · 62 yds · 2:3599% → 99%
Q1 12:21
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+18
99.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 18 yds to the TexSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+11
99.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 11 yds to the TexSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 3 yds to the TexSo 20Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+18
99.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 18 yds to the TexSo 2 for a 1ST down TEXAS SOUTHERN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen Williams, broken up by Ja'Corey BenjaminSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 4FG13 plays · 61 yds · 2:251% → 1%
Q1 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+14
99.4%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Ladarius Owens for 14 yds to the TexSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
99.4%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Roylain Oliver for 17 yds to the TexSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 8
50
+12
99.3%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Chris Long for 12 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.4%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Donnie Corley for 12 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.3%
De'Andre Johnson pass incomplete to Donnie Corley, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD4 plays · 42 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
TXSODrive 6PUNT10 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
99.3%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Tariq Buchanan for 4 yds to the TexSo 39Similar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
99.3%
De'Andre Johnson sacked by Kendall Wilkerson for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSo 31Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 18
OWN 33
+19
99.3%
Nic Risso punt for 37 yds , Eric Garror returns for 19 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD8 plays · 51 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
99.2%
Lewis, Levi pass complete to Mitchell, Elijah for 15 yards to the TXSOFB13 (Ja'Corey Benjamin;Patrick Howell), PENALTY LA ineligible downfield on pass (Vallot, Shane) 5 yards to the TXSOFB33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Raymond Calais for no gain to the TexSo 33Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 15
OPP 33
0
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jamal Bell, broken up by Jr Dallas BlacklockSimilar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 15
OPP 33
+23
99.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 23 yds to the TexSo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
99.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the TexSo 6 LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive holding (O'Cyrus Torrence) to the TexSo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 8PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.2%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Donnie Corley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSo 24Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
99.2%
De'Andre Johnson sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSo 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-1
99.2%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Tren'Davian Dickson for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9TD4 plays · 49 yds · 1:1399% → 100%
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
99.1%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Nick Ralston, broken up by Jacob AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
ULDrive 11TD3 plays · 44 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 10:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
99.7%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Roylain Oliver for 21 yds to the TexSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.7%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Tariq Buchanan for 6 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
99.7%
De'Andre Johnson pass incomplete to Tren'Davian Dickson, broken up by Asjlin WashingtonSimilar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
99.7%
De'Andre Johnson pass incomplete to Thurman Morbley, broken up by Bralen TrahanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD3 plays · 53 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q2 9:20
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-5
99.7%
Lewis, Levi pass complete to Smith Jr., Brian for 29 yards to the TXSOFB19, out-of-bounds (Marquel Daigle), PENALTY LA ineligible downfield on pass (Smith Jr., Brian) 5 yards to the LA47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 53 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 14FG10 plays · 53 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q2 8:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Chris Long for 6 yds to the TexSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+15
99.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Donnie Corley for 15 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
99.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Donnie Corley for 22 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass incomplete to Donnie Corley, broken up by Asjlin WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
99.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass incomplete to Thurman Morbley, broken up by Kam PedescleauxSimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
99.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass incomplete to Tren'Davian Dickson, broken up by Daijuane DorseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15TD5 plays · 36 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q2 5:57
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+11
99.8%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Brian Smith Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 16PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Donnie Corley for 5 yds to the TexSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+9
99.8%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Donnie Corley for 9 yds to the TexSo 43Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-2
99.8%
Nic Risso punt for 45 yds , Eric Garror returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17END OF HALF9 plays · 41 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q2 0:48
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-10
99.8%
Smith, Chris rush for 4 yards to the TXSOFB49 (Ja'Corey Benjamin), PENALTY LA holding (Rubio, Carlos) 10 yards to the LA37, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 18PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Devin Williams pass complete to Thurman Morbley for 5 yds to the TexSo 30Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kamar Greenhouse) to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Devin Williams pass complete to Tylor Cook for no gain to the LaLaf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:23100% → 100%
Q3 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+22
99.9%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Pearse Migl for 22 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
99.9%
Jai'ave Magalei run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 43 Jai'ave Magalei fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Jai'ave MagaleiSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+12
99.9%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Brian Smith Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSo 45Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
Smith, Chris rush for no gain to the TXSOFB45 (Lezra Dews;Patrick Howell), PENALTY TXSOFB offside defense (Jadrian McGraw) 5 yards to the TXSOFB40, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Pearse Migl for 5 yds to the TexSo 33Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Cassius Allen for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 20PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
100.0%
Devin Williams pass complete to Roylain Oliver for 4 yds to the TexSo 42Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Devin Williams pass incomplete to Roylain Oliver, broken up by Dalvin HutchinsonSimilar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 3
OWN 42
-3
100.0%
Nic Risso punt for 32 yds , Chris Smith returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD9 plays · 77 yds · 9:09100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Devon Pauley for 16 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
100.0%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Cassius Allen for 13 yds to the TexSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+11
100.0%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Kaleb Carter for 11 yds to the TexSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
100.0%
Jai'ave Magalei pass complete to Chris Smith for 10 yds to the TexSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
100.0%
Michael Orphey Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 22PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
ULDrive 23TD4 plays · 59 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
TXSODrive 24PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
ULDrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · 66 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:08
Trey Ragas run for 34 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
+0.5
FG · Q1 7:14
Richard Garcia III 44 yd FG GOOD
-0.2
TD · Q1 13:18
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)
-0.1